Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Gold Medal Game Thoughts

1st Intermission

After 20 minutes Canada has a 3-1 lead based on goals from Burns (2) and Kunitz (1), but I don't think Canada has been the runaway better team. If you've been watching the broadcast you'll see Canada has gotten a couple of breaks on penalties going both ways (a non call against Canada and a bad call on Russia).

Russia, especially the 'Capital Punishment' line of Semin, Ovechkin and Fedorov, have been extremely dangerous each time they've been on the ice and have a goal (Semin, from Ovechkin) to show for it.

Hitchcock has clearly decided on a power vs. power strategy and is playing Heatley, Getzlaf and Nash against the Capital Punishment line. It's hard to tell if MacT is trying to match Hamhuis/Bouwmeester against that line or Burns/Keith or if he's decided either of them would be fine. We lost sight of the Capital Punishment line for nearly 6 minutes while Russia tried to kill off a couple consecutive Canadian PPs.

Brent Burns has been the story of this game so far for Canada scoring two goals. Burns' first goal was a shot from the point after making a great play to fake out the shotblocker, it came just after a Russian penalty expired. His second goal was a 5-3 PP marker on which Heatley fanned on a shot that St. Louis redirected to Burns out in front. Really a fantastic play by Martin St. Louis on the play.

Spezza has been a real story as well, he's been playing very simple smart hockey and I've even seen him throw his body around. Ottawa might want to take note, it's possible to ring Spezza in a bit and still have him contribute.

Jovanovski has really imposed himself in this game and leads all Canadians with over 9 minutes of ice time. He set the tone early with a huge hit off the opening faceoff and he's just looked fantastic.

Duncan Keith with a slash at the end of the period and Canada has to kill off the majority of the penalty still and the Russians get fresh ice here at the beginning of the second.

Canadians are outshooting the Russians 15-5.

2nd Intermission

A much closer period for Canada, and IMO what we saw was simply an inability of Canada's top line to handle Russia's top line. A smart in-game adjustment by Ken Hitchcock and by the second half of the period we saw Doan, Toews and Roy playing the Capital Punishment line. I like the change a lot, let your captain go up against their top player. The level of commitment Doan has in identifying Ovechkin was obvious when he avoided an obviously loose puck to slam Ovechkin physically. So far he's the only one who's been able to match Ovechkin in the physical department, as all of Bouwmeester, Burns, Hamhuis have been victimized by number 8's explosivity along the wall and in races for loose pucks.

The move also freed up Heatley/Nash/Getzlaf to score a goal of their own for a tie for Canada in the period.

We're also seeing some real running around in the defensive zone for Team Canada. Canada has really had trouble identifying their defensive zone assignments and as a result the Russians have had some absolutely top quality chances from the slot and high slot. It cost Canada on their first goal and it almost cost them a couple times in the second.

Breakouts have also been an issue for Canada. On their SH goal against, as Pierre Maguire mentioned, Canada had 3-4 chances to get the puck out and failed. They've had issues getting the puck to their wingers on the boards with the Russian forwards in very good position to pick off passes along the boards.

Craig MacTavish continued to favour having Jovonovski on the ice but Canada's top defenceman in ice time for the second was Duncan Keith whom he played just over 8 minutes. Doan, Toews and Kunitz all saw their icetime increase up front by about a minute, partially due to reassignments and partially due to increased 5-5 time.

Watch for the Russians to continue to shoot from the outside hashmarks and hope Ward kicks out a rebound to a streaking Russian player. I feel it's a set play and Canada has gotten lucky in that they haven't connected yet.

I didn't feel Canada did a perfect job in the third against the Swedes as it got very close towards the end. After dominating that game in the faceoff dot they lost several late game faceoffs in a row. Third periods have not been kind to Canada, so we'll see if they can lock it down.

Staal, St. Louis and Kunitz bounced back from a bad game vs. Sweden and are playing what I think is their finest game of the tournament.

Russia outshot Canada 12-8.

3rd Intermission

Well, once again Canada's worst period is the third and now we're all tied up going to 4-4 Sudden Death. 20 minutes of OT then a shootout.

Despite the fact Canada was outshot 13-6 the two goals against weren't scored because of defensive zone assignment breakdowns or anything like that which is good news. The Russians have a couple lucky ones this game but their philosophy is all about throwing pucks on/at net and you have to expect once in a while they'll get a bounce.

Certainly the story of the game for me has been the Capital Punishment line outplaying the Heatly/Nash/Getzlaf line. Sure, Canada's top line is on the board but they just haven't been very dangerous on the whole. Ovechkin Federov and Semin on the other hand are getting about one high quality scoring chance per shift. Ovechkin is a +2 while Heatley Nash and Getzlaf are only even.

Hamhus was MacT's go to defenceman that period (8:49 ice time) but the standout performance by a defenceman in that period went to Staios. Just playing really smart in his own zone, not panicking on 1-1s and as always he's blocking a bunch of shots. Jovonovski's ice time was reduced again this period but he still leads all Canadian defenceman. Brett Burns is catching up though.

For their part, Russia shortened their bench. Two players Maxim Sushinski and Konstantin Gorovikov, both -2 in this game, didn't even see the ice. Obviously Ovechkin was played to the bone, trailing only Alexei Morozov and Sergei Zinoviev for ice time that period on the Russian bench. I would expect that to continue.

OT predictions: Shane Doan for Team Canada, or (who else) Alexandre Ovechkin for the Russians.

Final:

Ilya Kovalchuk blows one by Ward for the win.

The Russians really deserved this game, they outplayed Canada for large stretches. They just had a terrific game plan, all offense all the time, and credit their coach, Bykov, for going for it every chance he got. He played 4 forwards on the PP that won the game and there was just too much firepower for Canada to handle. Full credit and congratulations has to go to Team Russia, there is no argument from me about how good they were, and maybe a sign of a Russia's resurgence.

I wanted to write about the game vs. Sweden and never got the chance, but there's something that really disturbed me about that game. It wasn't so much that Canada leaned heavily on Heatley/Nash/Getzlaf, as they had a terrific game scoring 3 goals. It was that all of Canada's goals in that game relied so heavily on unbelievable individual efforts. This team had talent, but it never did become much of a team. It reminded me a lot of Canada's 2005 lockout edition. That team rode the success of one line, Nash, Thornton and Gagne, which was shutout in the final vs. the Czech Republic. That team had a lot of talent as well, but like this one, it wasn't much of a team.

Nash, Heatley and Getzlaf did not have a great game today, I wouldn't even say they had a good game. Their one goal against Nabokov seemed like a weak one to me, and they played most of the game in the defensive or neutral zone. Was it a product of stiffer competition in team Russia, fatigue, or some other factor? I don't know, but they weren't impressive.

I have to feel for Nash though taking the penalty on the game winner. A lot of people will probably blame him for the loss but there was 5 goals against Canada not just 1. There were a lot of breakdowns (Patrick Sharpe played arguably his worst game) by a lot of players.

I'll write more about this later, now I just want to sulk.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Is This Team For Real?

About halfway through the game vs. Norway I thought to myself; 'this team is going nowhere.' Then they scored 6 straight goals.

I'm used to a range of inconsistency in the World Hockey Championships, the nature of the tournament (short) and the players (young) makes for a perfect cocktail of inconsistency. But Canada should never be in a tight game with Norway, let alone two.

In the 2006 World Championships Team Canada went unbeaten in the round robin and qualifying rounds and then disposed of Slovakia 4-1 in the quarter finals. In the semifinal Canada played Sweden.

Now, the very recent history of these two teams in the World Championships has been generally favourable to Team Canada. There were a couple of very good Swedish teams that Canada faced in the finals, Swedish teams that were more than expected to win it all, facing Canadian teams featuring half of the Oilers roster including Cory Cross, Anson Carter, Mike Comrie, Sean Horcoff and of course, Steve Staios and Ryan Smyth. The Canadian squad came out on top two years in a row, 2003 and 2004, the first time with a disputed OT goal by Anson Carter, the second time in a come from behind effort featuring a then mostly unknown goaltender playing for Sweden named Henrik Lundqvist.

That game in the 2006 World Championships semis did not go well for Canada. It was 2-0 Sweden before Canada even blinked, and then 5-2 just a couple minute into the second period. Canada scored one with less than a minute left in the second and scored early in the 3rd, Canada got very close several times but it was too much of a deficit to overcome. They played the bronze medal game the next day and had nothing left emotionally or physically having spent it all trying to overcome the Swedish onslaught. As is usual with Canada, it's Gold medal game or nothing, and they lost 0-5 to the Finns in the bronze medal game.

This team has better depth and better high end talent than that 2006 edition of Team Canada. They literally have three lines that can light it up at any time and a 4th line that just looks plain mean out there most of the time. They have a defensive group who worst performer (according to ice time) has probably been Jay Bouwmeester. In net that year Canada had Alex Auld and Marc Denis - this year they have former Conn Smythe (and WC Gold) winner Cam Ward and top NHL shutout man Pascal Leclaire. This team also gets to play on small ice.

Look, this is a good hockey team. 30 NHL GMs would love to have this roster - but anything can happen in a single game. No disrespect to Sweden, but this team could even lose to a roster whose top line consists of Niklas Backstrom, Tony Martensson and Patric Hornqvist. Especially if that Swedish roster employs one Henrik Lundqvist.

2 MURRAY Douglas D- 0-0-0 +2 - 13:41
5 FERNHOLM Daniel D - 0-3-3 +2 - 14:53
7 WALLIN Niclas D -1-1-2 +2 - 15:50
36 STRALMAN Anton D - 2-3-5 - 16:19
24 FROGREN Jonas D - 0-3-3 +8 - 17:57
29 JONSSON Kenny D - 2-4-6 +3 - 19:23
23 EDLER Alexander D - 1-2-3 +4 19:36
6 JOHANSSON Magnus D - 1-2-3 +2 22:53

I would imagine that Johansson and Edler get the undesirable task of shutting down Heatley Getzlaf and Nash, although it's not entirely obvious what the pairings are. As can be seen, this defensive group is actually pretty even top to bottom in terms of point and plus minus distribution. This is both a sign of a good defensive group and a team that's been successful, especially in terms of even strength. Their team is a combined +72, which although pales in respect to Canada's +114, it at least shows that Sweden is winning the even strength battle by about 2 goals per game.

Murray, Wallin and Stralman are their top penalty takers so look for Canada to try and exploit both Murray and Stralman with the Heatley Getzlaf Nash line. It's my opinion that Canada has been playing Burns and Aucoin with the top line, so expect Staios and Hamhuis to be up against the Backstrom/Martenson/Hornqvist line. I might be jinxing the poor guy by saying this, but Staios has yet to be on for an ES goal against.

It's hard to say how Team Canada coaches reacted to Ward's game vs. Norway. I didn't feel he had much of a chance on either goal, but it sounds like Pascal Leclaire will be starting tomorrow. Is this part of a general plan or reaction to Ward's game? Only Hitchcock and the rest of the Team Canada staff knows.

Some intangibles:
Now that Sweden is the underdog and Canada is the favorite, how will Canada react? Can the Swedes take advantage of a Canadian team that knows they're expected to win?

What is the deal with Marcus Nilson? He has 4 goals, 2 assists and is +4 playing only about 3 minutes more a game than with the Flames.

The Tre Kroner roster also features Oilers rookie Robert Nilsson. He's getting about the same ice time as Nilson and is 2-3-5 +5.

How will Eric Staal play, and where will he be slotted in? Although the line was broken up halfway through the game, with Derek Roy being slotted in between Doan and Toews, the St. Louis, Spezza, Roy line wasn't half bad. I thought Spezza did a lot of good things, although he still isn't doing enough IMO. For my money he gets put back between Chimera and Mayers.

Does Kunitz get put back with Doan and Toews, or does Roy stay with that tandem. Personally I like Roy with them because it gives that line so much tenacity. I think it'll depend on how Hitchcock wants to line match, or if he wants to line match. Doan Toews and Kunitz become more of a shutdown line together, and more of an offensive line apart. I think Hitch will go the offense route.

How will Canada respond in the third period? If they have a lead, can they hold it?

Canada plays Sweden tomorrow at 2:50 MST. Game on TSN and tsn.ca.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Quarterfinals Notes

Canada and Norway faced each other once in the qualifying portion of this tournament. Canada won 2-1 on the strength of a late 3rd period goal by Rick Nash.

Eric Staal will miss the game to attend the funeral of his grandfather

Jason Spezza will take Staal's spot on the second line

"I believe in karma...I think I've handled the situation pretty good and tried to be pretty positive with it...hopefully, I can contribute in the latter part (of the event) when the games mean a lot here down the stretch."(TSN)

Sam Gagner will be subbing in for Staal, it will be his first time in a game situation since Canada's final exhibition game vs. Finland

"I think there's more nerves watching than actually playing...obviously when you're playing you have a little more control. When you're not, it's a little tougher."(TSN)

• Cam Ward is expected to start

• In their only meeting so far this tournament Canada outshot Norway 52-16

• Norway's only goal against Team Canada was scored while shorthanded by Mads Hansen.

• Goaltender Pal Grotnes played pretty much the best game of his career, he was terrific and is the key player for Norway

• Morten Ask is Norway's leading goal scorer with 2

• They have 2 players tied for points lead with 4 - Anders Bastiansen and Morten Ask

• After narrowly losing to Team Canada, Norway was smoked out of the water by a pissed off Team USA

• Team USA put 4 less shots at Norway than did Canada

• Team Norway defeated Team Canada 4-3 in the World Championships back in 2000

• Team Canada is ranked 1st in scoring efficiency (GF/SF) with 35/247

• Team Norway is ranked 14th in scoring efficiency with 9/125

• Canada's PP is ranked 5th with a 25% efficiency

• Norway's PP is ranked 12th with a 13.33% efficiency

• Canada's PK is ranked 2nd with an 88% efficiency

• Norway's PK is ranked 13th with a 73.68% efficiency

• Canada is the 12th most penalized team, Norway is the 10th

• Canada's goaltending ranks #1 by SV% (.932) and (GAA 1.67)

• Norway's goaltending ranks #12 by SV% (.889) and 10th in GAA (4.17)

• Canada's top faceoff ace is Patrick Sharp with 42 wins and 20 losses, Toews is second with 46 wins and 22 losses

Expect Team Canada to go with similar ice times to the rest of this tournament, there shouldn't be any defensive pairings that can't handle Norway's top guns, and there shouldn't be any defensive pairings on Norways that can stop Nash/Getzlaf/Heatley.

According to the numbers, this should be a blowout. That means all the pressure is on Team Canada, and none on Norway and their merry band of day labourers.

If Canada loses this game it will be nothing less then an absolute catastrophe. Remember, Norway is no joke.

Finally, I keep meaning to throw up a couple links to Staple's Cult of Hockey. He's been tracking errors for Team Canada's goal against, although I haven't seen his evaluation of Canada vs. Finland.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Finland vs. Canada Postgame

I feel pretty confident in saying that Canada's 6-3 victory over Team Finland was Canada's most complete game of the tournament. Just a quick breakdown of what I saw in the game:

The Good
Higher Quality Chances - The shots were down this game (22) compared to say the game vs Norway (52), but Canada is really burying their chances. Canada had a little help today (Doan puts one off a stick which then deflects off a shoulder and into the net) but in general they just created high quality chances (Getzlaf in alone, Doan in alone, Sharpe in alone, Heatley in alone, Heatley in the slot...) and then let their talent level do the talking.

This ignores the post and the time Nash and Getzlaf got in alone and neither could get a hold of the puck.

There was at least one post as well.

And finally it seems like all 4 lines are contributing in one way or another. Spezza is actually creating chances and limiting his giveaways, Doan, Toews and Kunitz have been very smart (although I feel Toews has been a bit underwhelming, he's been playing smart but I think he's a step behind his linemates), and we all saw St. Louis, Roy and Staal light it up vs. Germany.

The Bad
No Lock Down - It's disheartening to see Canada winning by 4 goals in the third period, adding another goal, but only winning by 3. Third periods with big leads have not been particularly impressive for Canada. Third periods have not been impressive for Canada in general.

VS. Team USA
-2 goal lead early in third
-win by 1 goal with under a minute left

VS. Latvia
-7 goal lead going into third
-0 goals scored in third, Latvia carried most of play

VS. Germany
-10 goal lead early in third
-Germany scores only goal, Canada wins 10-1

We all saw what happened with Finland.

Obviously I'm being overly critical here, as most of these games were blowouts, but Canada needs to insure they play as well in the third as they have the other 2 periods.

The Suprising
I think judging from defenceman ice times we can conclude a couple of things:

Craig MacTavish has a high level of say of who goes on and when. Steve Staios is probably more of a third pairing defenceman on this team, not so much because he isn't a capable defenceman, but because this is a star studded group. But he's played the fourth most minutes for Canada and despite what I've judged as some poor decision making at times, he's got a very respectable +/-, good enough to be tied for third on the team. No small feat considering by my eye he's playing against the other team's top lines while Burns and Duncan play with the Heatley/Nash/Getzlaf line against the other team's shutdown lines.

8 BURNS Brent D 6 1 5 6 8 +10 0 0 0 0 22 4.55 114:08
22 KEITH Duncan D 6 0 1 1 2 +9 0 0 0 0 6 0.00 105:44

2 HAMHUIS Dan D 6 1 1 2 8 +5 0 0 0 0 5 20.00 101:27
24 STAIOS Steve D 6 0 0 0 2 +7 0 0 0 0 6 0.00 99:33

55 JOVANOVSKI Ed D 6 0 1 1 4 +4 0 0 0 0 13 0.00 96:30
4 BOUWMEESTER Jay D 6 0 0 0 0 +2 0 0 0 0 5 0.00 91:17

52 GREEN Mike D 6 3 3 6 2 +1 0 0 2 0 30 10.00 88:26

The other thing we can see by this grouping is MacTavish's distaste for chaos defenceman. I think we can classify Jovonovski and Green in that group, and they're getting the least amount of ice time. I think we can also see that he prefers to pair a steady guy with a chaos defenceman (ala Bouwmeester with Jovonvski, and often Hamhuis/Keith with Green unless on the PP).

I wonder if we can conclude anything about how MacTavish sees Bouwmeester though. Is Bouwmeester being played so sparesly because he's paired with Jovonovski and he doesn't add as much on the PP as Green or Jovonovski, or because he just doesn't see Bouwmeester as being very good. It seems my dream of the Oilers acquiring Bouwmeester isn't very realistic.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Finland vs. Canada Pregame

Well, Canada made short work of Germany on Saturday, obliterating them 10-1. It was nice to see the Canadians dominate in every aspect of the game so thoroughly, but I couldn't help but feel bad for the Germans. After the second goal they very uncharacteristically lost their composure and Canada just kept coming. Staal with 4 goals, St. Louis with 5 assists and even Spezza with a goal.

The real game to watch this weekend was this afternoon's tilt between Team USA and Finland. The Americans go into the final frame with a 2 goal lead but completely melt down after a bizarro world goal review gives Finland a shred of hope. Ville Koistinen puts one through the side of the net and the goal review judge calls it a legit goal (he was later fired...seriously). The Americans are absolutely incensed (and rightfully so) and proceed to completely melt down. James Wisniewski takes an absolutely idiotic penalty when he hits Tuomo Ruutu well after the whistle and the comeback is complete.

The game gets even crazier as the final whistle blows.

At the end of the game there was a melee with players getting into physical confrontations, including a fight between David Backes and Anssi Salmela, who was bloodied. Both received match penalties...

Matt Greene and Antti-Jussi Niemi both received leaving the bench penalties and game misconducts. Teemu Selanne was assessed roughing minors; Dustin Brown was assessed a checking to the head and neck minor and a misconduct...

For Jokinen, Backes, and Salmela, their match penalties draw an automatic one-game suspension. All three will miss their team's next game, and their actions are subject to automatic review which will take place on Tuesday, the day before the quarter-finals...

Jokinen and Salmela will be lost for Finland's next game against Canada to decide the winner of Group F. Backes will be lost for Team USA's game against Norway....(IIHF)

It gets even crazier when you consider that if Team USA loses to Norway tommorow then it will be Norway who moves onto the quarterfinal. We all know that Norway should not be taken lightly.

All of this does have some consequences for Canada's game against the Finns on Monday. Firstly, the Finns are second in the pool with 11 pts (to Canada's 12) so this matchup affects who will place first in the pool.

This is not the first time the two teams have met in this tournament. The Finns beat Canada in and exhibition game 4-2 and a very consistent effort. Finland put in a pretty consistent effort today against Team USA today, outshooting them 45-22, and except for a heroic effort from Robert Esche (Player of the Game for Team USA)it would have been a much different game.

Here's a quick overview of Finland's ice time leaders:

Forward:
Ville Peltonen - 109:41/5 = 21.94 - 1-3-4 +1
Saku Koivu - 41:13/2 = 20.61* - 0-2-2 +1 played only 2 games
Mikko Koivu - 101:12/5 = 20.24 - 3-3-6 +1
Teemu Selanne - 95:43/5 = 19.14 - 3-2-5 +1

Other notables:
Antti Pihlstrom - 54:09/5= 10.83 - 1-2-3 +5

Defence:
Ossi Vaananen - 82:39/5 - 0-1-1 +1
Ville Koistinen - 80:41/5 - 1-1-2 +3
Janne Niskala - 75:53/5 -0-2-2 +2
Annsi Salmela - 74:14/5* - 0-0-0 +0 - suspended

In net the Finns have one of the most successful goaltenders in the tournament thus far. Niklas Backstrom is second only to Pascal Leclaire in SV% (.946), has a 1.50 GAA.

Finland has been one of the most consistent teams in this tourny and has followed Canada's footsteps. They beat Germany by 3, Norway by 1, Slovakia by 1, Latvia by 1 and Team USA by 1. Sound familiar?

This is Canada's last game before the elimination round. TSN at 1:20, or at TSN.ca.

Additionally, Mirtle has had a couple of interesting thoughts about the tournament and I keep meaning to link them. Read them here, here, here and here.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Norway Is No Joke

For all those Canadians who were feeling smug about the Swedes getting beaten by Switzerland, here's your wakeup call: Those European teams that used to simply be punching bags for Canada and Russia are now legitimate hockey teams. Outside shots to win any game, but they are in every game.

Norway and Germany beat out Slovakia in Group C and Switzerland won it's division (hey, we knew they were good when they beat Canada's freaking best on best team in Turin 2006).

Make no mistake, Norway is no pushover. Still, it shouldn't have been that close.

Despite the fact this team is 4-0, right now, I think they've become a great example of a flawed philosophy. We all know who the top line is, Nash, Getzlaf and Heatley, and rightfully so, with so much talent on the team and so many duplicate player types, take a look at the icetime breakdown for forwards. The following list has the ice time for Canada vs. Norway in the first column, average TOI/G in the NHL regular season in the next column, and the difference between the two in the third.

Jason Spezza - 6:52 (20:40) - 13.8
Jason Chimera - 5:28 (17:29) - 12.01
Jamal Meyers - 5:07 (15:55) - 10.8
Eric Staal - 12:07 (21:38) - 9.52
Martin St. Louis - 16:09 (24:17) - 8.13
Jonathan Toews - 10:44 (18:40) - 7.93
Patrick Sharp - 11:01 (18:46 ) - 7.75
Shane Doan - 13:18 (20:45) - 7.45
Derek Roy - 14:46 (20:58 ) - 6.2
Rick Nash - 14:51 (20:29) - 5.63
Dany Heatley - 16:33 (21:44) - 5.18
Chris Kunitz - 11:56 (16:54 ) - 4.97
Ryan Getzlaf - 17:43 (19:38) - 1.92


In terms of TOI vs. Norway I can understand the justifications here. We get the 'scoring' line, plus the two ultra small but ultra versatile (to steal from Maguire) players in Roy and St. Louis getting the most ice time. For my money, by the way, no one is creating more chances offensively than Rick Nash.

This is the next group of 5, and besides Staal, I think this is the group that get's it done in the two way game. Despite this we haven't seen much actual offence from them, nor have we really seen their physical side.

Finally, we get the 'grinders' (and Spezza) who are supposed to play a physical and create energy.

Now let's reorder this list by pts scored.

Jason Chimera - 5:28 (17:29) - 12.01 - 0-0-0
Jason Spezza - 6:52 (20:40) - 13.8 - 0-1-0
Jamal Meyers - 5:07 (15:55) - 10.8 - 0-1-1
Patrick Sharp - 11:01 (18:46 ) - 7.75 - 1-0-1
Jonathan Toews - 10:44 (18:40) - 7.93 - 1-0-1
Eric Staal - 12:07 (21:38) - 9.52 - 0-2-2
Shane Doan - 13:18 (20:45) - 7.45 - 0-2-2
Martin St. Louis - 16:09 (24:17) - 8.13 - 2-1-3
Derek Roy - 14:46 (20:58 ) - 6.2 - 1-2-3
Chris Kunitz - 11:56 (16:54 ) - 4.97 - 1-3-4
Ryan Getzlaf - 17:43 (19:38) - 1.92 - 0-6-6
Rick Nash - 14:51 (20:29) - 5.63 - 3-4-7
Dany Heatley - 16:33 (21:44) - 5.18 - 6-4-10

Here is a line graph of ice time difference vs. production:

The pink line represents the difference in ice time between a players TOI/G avg in the regular season, while the blue line represents points scored. As is clear, the less time difference, the higher level of production. Of course, this could be due to the fact less ice time difference represents greater ice time total. So below is a graph comparing minutes per game in the tournament vs. production:

We can see there is still a correlation there, but to me, without doing any sort of actual statistical analysis, the ice time line is actually fairly stable or at least somewhat spotty, while the point scoring line trends upwards. Now don't get me wrong, there is a correlation, just to my eye, it doesn't seem as strong.

Now I've admitted that the energy line doesn't have the job of scoring, so judging their effectiveness by points alone is a bit unfair, but to my eye, especially with Spezza on that line, they are not grinding down teams, playing them physical or using their speed effectively. (A flaw on my methodology would be comparing time difference between regular ice time and this game in particular rather than tournament avg TOI/G, but I just don't want to redo it, and this game in particular was particularly disturbing to me).

To be fair to Team Canada, they outshot the Norweigians 53-16, and I think Norway maybe had 3 scoring chances the entire game (congrats to Hansen on a beautiful shorthanded breakaway in the second, an absolutely clutch goal by the Norweigian) and Pal Grotnes, the Norweigian goaltender played the game of his life...still...

The only good news is that I have seen Canada put in very similar lacklustre efforts in this tournament and still come out on top in the end.

A final note: The Canadians need to watch their sticks, high sticking penalties are absolutely killing them.

Canada said they had learned their lesson after barely taking the Americans. Did they?

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Entertainment

With those beauty 76' heritage jerseys on, you knew it was going to be a barnburner, but the ending resembled the end of game 3 against the Soviets in 87' more than Sittler's game winner against the Czechs in 76'.

Team USA had the unfortunate opportunity to test whether Heatley Nash and Getzlaf actually had chemistry or it was artificially created chemistry through poor opposition.

Turns out the trio appear to be able to get it done against real opposition as well.

Dany Heatley scored with 10 seconds left in the first period as well as 47 seconds left in the third to bury Team USA 5-4.

It came down to the wire, but it really shouldn't have had to. Team Canada jumped up to a 3-0 lead only 18 seconds into the 2nd, but allowed Team USA to crawl back into the game twice. First Jay Bouwmeester loses Zach Parise in front of Canada's net, and then a sloppy defensive change Canada allows Patrick O'Sullivan in on a breakaway. Both Team USA players, to note, were on that underdog 2004 World Junior team that beat Canada for the gold.

Derek Roy scored early in the 3rd to give Canada another 2 goal advantage, but Pierre Maguire called it in his pregame when he said Team USA's tournament best PP would be a factor. After Team Canada neatly killing off a trifecta of penalties in the first period, the American PP was huge in the third, scoring on two consecutive PPs to tie the game. Heatley looked like a goat on the tieing goal when he took a really unnecessary roughing penalty.

From then on it was a lot of back and forth, and Jason Chimera had probably the absolute best chance of the period, firing the puck high on a glorious open net opportunity, but in a scene that I personally found a little bit reminiscent of Lemieux's famous goal in 1987 in game 3 of the Canada Cup, Getzlaf, Nash and Heatley, along with Jovonovski rushed the puck up the ice and Heatley fired Nash's one timer pass through Craig Anderson to give the Canadians the win.

It's hard to identify the matchup game Torterella was trying to play against the Nash/Heatley/Getzlaf line. Judging purely by ice time, here is how Tortorella sees his defenceman:

Paul Martin - 22:31
Matt Greene - 17:51
Timothy Gleason - 15:37
Mark Stuart - 15:08
Tom Gilbert - 14:41
Keith Ballard - 12:38
James Wisniewski - 5:58

Note that this represents total ice time and is not broken into special teams or even strength.

Given that Nash/Heatley/Getzlaf all played about 15 minutes it isn't obvious who was assigned to who, and it's hard to judge if that line was scoring when it's assigned coverage was on, or when they were off. For instance, here is the lineup for Team USA on Heatley's first: 2 12 77 83 88 Here is the lineup on for Heatley's second: 5 17 22 23 29.

Where is timeonice.com when you need it?

Team USA for their part, had no problem identifying their top player: Zach Parise. He played 20:43, had a goal and assist and 5 shots on net. He was heavily counted upon in the third with 8:30 in ice time. I think for better or worse USA hockey is saying Parise is going to be the face of Team USA for some time.

The biggest question for me coming out of this win is whether Canada's victory was because they took Team USA too lightly, because Team USA is just that good, because Canada let up, or because in this tournament Canada is often just good enough. I just hope Canada does not believe they will win this tournament because of some notion of birthright.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - The First Test

With all apologies to Slovenia and Latvia, they are both second rate teams, especially compared to Canada. Anze Kopitar played a terrific game for Slovenia, with a breakaway in the third that had the opportunity to bring the game within two goals, and Latvia played with a lot of heart as well. Their number one goaltender, Edgars Masalskis, had a bit of a meltdown early in the second to put the game totally out of reach, but either Canada played a poor 3rd period or Latvia played really well, because they were nearly matching Canada for chances. I suppose it's hard to criticize a team that wins 7-0, but Canada really lost focus in the third period.

Right now the top line for Canada is Dany Heatley, Rick Nash and Ryan Getzlaf, and there is a lot of talk about their amazing chemistry. Heatley has is 4-4-8 +6, Nash is 2-2-4 +4 and Getzlaf is 0-4-4 +5, and for those record keepers out there, Heatley has surpassed Steve Yzerman to gain the all time points lead for Canada in the World Championships with 40pts in 36 games (1 more than Yzerman).

Impressive counting numbers to be sure, but I would love the see the Desjardins numbers for this tournament for quality of competition vs the Heatley-Nash-Getzlaf line. I sincerely hope that they keep even half the pace they're on, but the idea of 'chemistry' against such lesser opponents is a bit suspect. Christ, I couldn't score a goal to save my life, but put me on a line with a couple of my teammates against a bunch of 8 year olds and I would look like I had fantastic 'chemistry.'

Next up for Team Canada is a pretty strong Team USA, and I say that because any team boasting Tim Thomas in net is going to be difficult to beat. I've never really written about Thomas, but he has to be one of the greatest sports comeback stories of all time. You can read the whole story here, but needless to say that making the NHL at 31 and becoming quite the quality goaltender is a singular accomplishment unto itself. The fact that by all reports he is a good guy and is more than willing to play for his country (appearances for Team USA in 95, 96, 98, 05) and I can't help but admire the guy.

The Americans don't have a pushover roster either. I like their defensive group: Keith Ballard, Matt Greene, Tom Gilbert, Paul Martin as well as the youngster James Wisniewski. Up front they boast youngsters Phil Kessel, David Booth, Patrick O'Sullivan, Patrick Kane, Zach Parise, Peter Mueller, Jason Pominville (traitor), as well veteran and team Captain Jeff Halpern (who actually finished a +2 on Tampa).

Every team in this tournament has selected one game to wear a heritage jersey of their choice in honour of this being the 100th Anniversary of the IIHF World Hockey Championships, and tomorrow will be wearing the same jerseys worn from 1976-1991 at the Canada Cup, but it's specifically to remember that 1976 team that was famous as much for one great blueliner's last hurrah (Orr) as one great blueliner's coming out party (Potvin). That team is currently holding a reunion in Halifax.

For me, this game will be the best of the tournament. It's still prelim, so there aren't any real consequences to a loss besides positioning for the round robin portion of the tournament. No pressure, just good hockey. Coverage starts at 1:20MST/3:2oEST on TSN.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Differing Philosophies

Reading Dan Barnes' article today, it seems Team Canada is set on their philosophy of rolling 4 lines, no line matching and letting the chips fall where they may.

Some highlights:

Team Canada head coach Ken Hitchcock said he's going to throw his physical firepower out on the Halifax Metro Centre ice and not worry too much about who occupies the other sweaters.(Calgary Herald)

I'm not saying this philosophy WON'T work, Canada has so much talent, it's hard not to buy into this idea. But automatically assuming that whoever Canada puts out will be better than whomever the opposition will put out is both lazy and disrespectful. It's certainly not prudent.

"We're not going to spend a lot of time worrying on the opposition. You can almost get overwhelmed by the way they play. They play so much different than we do. I've seen it where we talk so much about them that we play tentative," said Hitchcock. "We're going to go out, put our Canadian game right out front and, if you can play and beat us, great. We're not going to go and back up and worry about defending in certain areas. We'll play the game we've got on the ice and, if a team beats us at our game, then so be it. (Calgary Herald)

Forgive me for asking this, but when have Canadians ever said, "well if our best doesn't beat their best by default, so be it?" NEVER. IMO part of Canada's success in hockey is because we refuse to accept losing under any condition. There are some points that Hitchcock brings up that fills me with some hope:

"We've got two high-pressure lines and two lines that are really strong in the two-way game. We wanted to really identify everybody and give everybody a role."(Calgary Herald)

Thank god...

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - Looking ahead to the 2010 Olympics

I know I've pounded on this point quite a bit lately, but this tournament is truly an audition of sorts for the 2010 games, this year more than others; it's in Canada, it's an Olympic qualifier, etc. We know that players understand the significance because we're seeing a lot more 'A' guys attend the tournament (although the numbers are growing every year).

To me, this presents an interesting philosophical problem which is going to crop up when naming the Canadian Olympic team:

Does Hockey Canada
a) Go with the formula that has brought a lot of success in the World Championships (and Juniors), defined by 'limited' talent and lines that have roles, with set 1-4 lines.

b) Go with the formula that worked in Salt Lake 2002 and 2004, that is, tremendous players with clearly defined roles

b) Go with the formula that failed miserably in Turin 2006, as defined by essentially putting together an all star team and rolling all four lines fairly evenly.

In 2002, with Gretzky on board, the philosophy was 'go with the best players at the time, regardless of role.' The idea was that 'the best' players can play any role. Lemieux was the undisputed leader, but the Kariya/Lemieux/Yzerman line didn't get significantly more ice time than the Gagne/Sakic/Iginla line. Niewendyk/Peca/Fleury was the closest thing Canada had to an energy line, and Smyth/Lindros/Nolan were the checking line. Notice the two centers per line on the Lindros and Peca lines. Also notice in 2006 though, Canada at least partitioned skill players, placing the Lemieuxs with Yzermans and the Pecas with Niewendyk. As much as I love Niewendyk, there is a clear pure skill distinction between him and Yzerman.

(Similar setups were generated in 2004, with Lemieux playing the lead and everyone else given at least an outline of what was expected, for instance, the DDT (Draper, Doan, Thornton) line was Canada's shutdown line).

In 2006 Canada put together a pure all-star team, but at least partially abandoned the 'best players at the time' philosophy. Despite having average at best seasons, guys like Todd Bertuzzi, Kris Draper, Bryan McCabe were named to the team. Each had a separate subtext; Todd Bertuzzi had/has undeniable talent, but got suspended, sat through a lockout without playing, and then was having an average year. Draper was named partially because of success with Team Canada both in the World Championships (2003, gold) and the World Cup (2004). But Draper simply wasn't having a good year (by comparison he had 24 goals in 67 games in 03-04 but only 10 in 82 games in 05-06). Bryan McCabe, as we all know, was scoring goals like a madman that year, but if anyone cared to watch him play they would've realized he was a PP specialist AT BEST and his defensive coverage and decision making was extremely poor most of the time. Chaos defenceman wouldn't even begin to describe what McCabe brought to the table, yet the Toronto media was simply clamoring for him to be included on the team.

Without a clear skill leader though, Canada seemed to have a lot of trouble identifying it's top line. Sure, Joe Sakic was the captain, and he's obviously a truly great player who's destined for the hall, and one of a very select group. But he's not supernatural the way Lemieux or Gretzky was. He didn't change the pace of the game by stepping on the ice. So this creates an undisputed number 1 line vacuum.

Here are the lines as best I remember them, I believe them to be pretty accurate though:

Iginla - Sakic - Draper
Nash - Thornton - Bertuzzi/Doan
Smyth - Lecavalier - St. Louis
Gagne - Richards - Heatley

Doan/Nash rotated variously on lines.

Can someone tell me who the number one line is? The checking line? What is the logic of these lines? Why is Draper grouped with Sakic etc? When Canada needed an emotional boost, who was sent on? (The answer is that it was usually Doan on the Lecavalier line or something like that). It's not hard to see why Canada had trouble with flow. Most of these guys were switched from playing 20+ minutes a night, to everyone playing about 15, give or take some special team time. There wasn't a whole lot of intensity generated, and nobody really got the ice time to step up and take control.

In the Worlds (both World Juniors and Men's) Canada has truly made an art of defining roles. I explain it in more detail here, but in general the formula tends to be pretty static.

Judging from HF, fans still tend to take the 'All-Star Team' approach, one I believe was a spectacular failure.

Judging by this Men's World roster, team Canada still tends to take the 'All-Star Team' approach, at least, as much as is possible in the World Championships.

Of course we still have Chimera and Meyers, (and as of the exhibition games Patrick Sharp is on that line), but we also have Staal, Spezza, and Gagner, Toews, and Roy and Kunitz. Staal and Spezza play a nearly identical game, Gagner and Toews are both skilled guys, and although Toews is superior defensively, he's not good enough to be a shutdown guy and he's not good enough to be in the top two lines. Roy could play on any line, while Kunitz is probably going to be limited to a 3rd or 4th line role.

Who is the number 1 center? Who is the shutdown?

With that in mind, here is my proposed (2 years out) Canadian Olympic team, along with my explanations of inclusions and exclusions.

Iginla - Crosby - Nash

This is my first line, and they will get 20+ minutes a night. Back in 1987, Canada had a very well defined role team in the Canada Cup, but even the lesser players were stars in their own right. Keenan took the team aside and got out a board, setting out the total number of icetime minutes that could be given out in a single game. Gretzky will get the most playing time Keenan declared, 20+ minutes. That means that everyone else will get less. And he went down the list of players, Lemieux, Messier. Gartner, Hawerchuk. Everyone understood who would be the horses.

This is my number one scoring line, all three possess above average individual skill in every facet of the game (board work, outside speed, incredible vision, ace level shot etc.), and each has played key roles and succeeded for Canada before.

Getzlaf - Lecavalier - St. Louis

This is my second scoring line. Lecavalier is arguably Canada's best center at the moment, and he's paired with a two way scoring threat in St. Louis (great on the PK or PP as well), in addition to the supremely skilled and also physical Ryan Getzlaf. Lecavalier was MVP for Canada in the World Cup, Getzlaf scored a huge one for Canada in the 2004 World Juniors. All three were huge for their team during their respective cup runs, and Lecavalier and St. Louis combined for 2/3 of Canada's most effective line in Turin 06 (the 3rd player was Ryan Smyth). According to Desjardins, Lecavalier and St. Louis play the highest quality of competition of all the forwards in this group.

Richards - Horcoff - Toews

This line is the two way specialty. Sean Horcoff is arguably the best two way player in the NHL, he's a master 5-5 and he is also pretty special on the PK. His shot has turned particularly devastating to goalies and his speed is brilliant. Jonathan Toews is already playing a very high level of competition (2nd highest forward with >40 games on his team behind Patrick Sharp) and I suspect after his rookie season that will increase. He's been asked to play a two way role for Canada before and his success with Canada and experience will serve him well on the biggest international stage. Brad Richards is probably the biggest question mark on this line, and it was between him and Eric Staal. I went with Richards due to his experience on the international level, but both players would be suitable for this role.

Morrow - Richards - Doan

This is my second utility line that can take on a variety of roles - need a emotional boost from physical play? Need a line to go out there, get it deep and grind? Want some crash and bang goals? Want some pretty goals? Want leadership? Want to shut down the other team's top line? This line can and will do it all. This is not Canada's most skilled line, but there is plenty of skill to be had, two of the players are captains of their respective teams (and Richards is on his way IMO), and the talent level is still exceptional.

13th forward: Joe Sakic/Ryan Smyth

Joe Sakic has expressed interest in attending this competition, and even if his best years have passed him by I would still support his inclusion on the team as long as he's playing hockey. 2002 proved to me the importance of great veterans on the team, because even if 2002 Lemieux wasn't as good as 1987 Lemieux, he still provided invaluable support to the younger players (and I'm sure some of the vets). He's been there before and won, which is more than can be said for the rest of this lineup (save Iginla).

If Joe Sakic isn't available I would fully support Ryan Smyth's inclusion. He is not the most talented available by any extent, but he is a very well respected veteran and maybe Canada's most experienced player on the international stage. His years and years of winning on team Canada have given him a credibility that most players can only dream of.

Neither of these 13th forwards needs to take a regular shift but can be slotted in any of the lines when needed.

Notable exclusions:
Jason Spezza - Spezza, in my opinion, has proven himself useful in only one role, that's as a setup man on a scoring line, and even then his playoff record the last two years has been less than stellar. I don't think there's enough ice time available for Spezza to be effective.

Dany Heatley - Everything said about Spezza, ditto for Heatley. He's also been pretty ineffective in best on best tournaments (2004, 2006).
Eric Staal - Staal is a great hockey player, but I think there are better players available for a scoring role. Brad Richards edged him out, but just barely, and I think if he can prove his defensive abilities he has a strong chance of making the team.

Daniel Briere - Briere is great and has been great for Canada, and I have a lot of hesitation about not finding a place for him, but there you go, simply too much depth for Briere's inclusion.

Joe Thornton - I considered Thornton's inclusion for a very long time, and keeping him off this team was more a matter of taste than anything. I think his playoffs this year has been at times great and at times very mediocre; he certainly doesn't look like Morrow, Richards/Richards, Iginla etc out there, he doesn't control the flow the same way those guys do. If he does make the team I would slot him in there as a third or fourth line guy with a very simply role: own the boards. Calgary fans saw his boardwork in the first round, and it was very effective. If he makes the team, reduce his role, simplify his game and he could be a real weapon.

Patrick Marleau - He's having a much better playoff than I ever expected him to and he went goal less for what, 4 straight games? As I've mentioned before, he's never been great for Canada. Simply too much depth to include him on the team.

Derek Roy - As much as I like him, I think he needs to carve out a niche to be placed on a team with as much skill as this team.

So there you have it, 2 years in advance I've thrown down the gauntlet. This tournament will be an interesting first step (test) for Vancouver 2010.

Thoughts?

Team Canada World Hockey Championships: The Dream Team

Some more roster announcements today (some last night) from Hockey Canada; Edmonton Oilers' players Mathieu Garon and Sam Gagner were both announced as extras (Garon as the 3rd goalie and Sam Gagner as the 14th forward), a surprise to myself as I initially had them on the team, and when they weren't announced with Staios' addition I assumed they missed their chance. Nice to see both guys go, especially as an Oiler fan.

Now, also named were a couple of guys I hoped would stay home (damn their patriotism!) Both Dany Heatley and Jason Spezza were named to the team, and despite their embarrassing playoff performances, I truly hope they make me look like a fool for counting them out. Heatley has been very disappointing in recent team Canada outings (World Cup 2004, Turin 2006) but he has been absolutely terrific for Team Canada in the World Championships. His 2004 World Championship performance was particularly dominating, leading the tournament in goals and points, and winning tournament MVP en route to a gold medal.

Right now a concern of mine is ice time distribution. Who is the top line? This roster bosts Nash, Doan, St. Louis, Staal, Spezza, Heatley, Roy, and Getzlaf. Oh, and Jonathan Toews. Who is the 3rd line? What is everyone's role? I still feel the mentality of rolling 4 lines without any real roles was a massive issue in 2006 because all those players are used to 20+ minutes a game. This could become a real issue as the tournament roles on. A nice problem to have I guess, but a potential problem nonetheless. Is this a playoff roster, or an all star game roster?

As expected, Brett Burns and Dan Hamhuis were named to the team, as well as surprise addition Ed Jovanovski. Jovanovski is a guy who when he is on, he is ON. I feel that he's represented Canada very well and that he was missed in 2006, good on him for going. Flames fans should be very excited to see familiar face Mark Giordano was added as the 'extra' defenceman, (boy, glad we got rid of that loser!)

This makes for 6 defenceman, so I would expect one more will be named. I still would not be surprised to see Robyn Regehr, and his naming could be delayed as he undergoes physicals or mulls over the decision. Dion Phaneuf has turned the team down and that's ok because he's probably distracted with other things. I would be too.

Rounding out the group being named are Ryan Getzlaf and Chris Kunitz. I expect Kunitz will center Chimera and Meyers while Getlzaf will play on one of the top two lnes.

One thing I'll say about this team; It's probably the deepest and most talented group I've ever seen go over, that includes the 2005 edition with all the locked out NHLers. The defence is a bit unknown and a bit young, but on paper this is a hell of a team.

Doan - Staal - Nash
St. Louis - Spezza - Heatley
Chimera - Kunitz - Meyers
Toews - Roy - Whitney
Sharp
(Gagner)

Bouwmeester - Jovanovski
Hamhuis - Keith
Staios - Burns
(Giordano)

Ward
Leclaire
Garon

(mini update: There are some reports going around that Whitney has an ankle injury, so that might sort out the 13th forward issue we're seeing right now).

update #2 Friday 25 8:40am: Robyn Regehr will not be attending the IIHF World Championships. I'm 90% sure he wasn't even asked, which IMO is a massive oversight by team Canada. For shame.

update #3: Mike Green from the Washington Capitals has been added. I think a good choice, more than anything Green will be there for the PP and occasional even strength spot duty. He lead all defenceman in scoring this year with 18 goals.

Team Canada World Hockey Championships 2008 - First Round All But Done

Milan Lucic, Team Canada Captain, Super Series 2007

Now that the first round is virtually over there are a couple of standout players that I believe will get invites to the World Championships.

Its now a fact that Martin Brodeur has been invited to join the team, but it's yet to be seen whether he'll go. I think this is a win-win for Canada. Brodeur goes and the team gets a Hall of Fame goalie out for vengeance after his post-season blues, a man who will almost certainly backstop the Olympic team in 2010. If they don't get Brodeur they get two goalies who have had decent seasons, and one (Ward) who is in the running to have a big role in 2010 and therefore has something to prove.

There haven't been a lot of players named to the energy line, and I think Boston has a player that would fit the bill very nicely: Milan Lucic. Was Canada's captain in the Super Series with the intent of 'sending the Russians a message.' He plays a freaking mean game, and he can put the puck in the net on occasion. I think he'll get a long look.

Matt Cooke in Washington could help fill out that line as well. It depends on the outcome of game 7 but he's been to this tournament before, and he is a classic pest.

The Predators could really help Team Canada on defence by donating the services of Dan Hamhuis and Shea Weber. Hamhuis and Weber played in the tournament last year and are both very good defenceman. I think Brent Burns will get an invite from the team because of his strong play this year.

I would bet the Anaheim crew (Pronger, Neidermeyer, possibly Beauchemin), but I would bet they all turn the team down. Beauchemin didn't look that good and Pronger doesn't seem like the type of guy to play in a 'lesser tournament.'

If those three go that'll leave one more defenceman, and it's really anyone's guess as to who it could be. Chris Phillips is a guy that has been called a 'potential' Team Canada blueliner for years, Mike Green or Braydon Coburn could go depending on which team loses, and one of Brian Campbell or Dion Phaneuf could be a huge boon for Team Canada. Robyn Regehr has been simply outstanding and could probably step in as Canada's best defensive defenceman.

The Sharks/Flames outcome could have a profound effect on Team Canada. Jarome Iginla has probably been the best player in the entire ice surface these playoffs, and he might be willing to travel to Quebec to play, especially if Martin Brodeur goes. Iginla has traditionally shyed off this tournament in recent years, but I think this particular year has special meaning and greater convenience. Thornton is the guy to ask on the Sharks. Right now I don't think he's good enough to make the Olympic team on the top two scoring lines, and he might have to settle for a grinding role much like he had in the 2004 World Cup of Hockey. This could be a chance for him to prove his usefulness.

We're only a week and half away from the Tournament opener, and this team will take shape sooner rather than later.