Tom Gilbert

Pictured in the above picture are Tom Gilbert (wearing the 77) and skating coach Steve Serdachney (holding the timing device). Tom Gilbert was a bit of a surprise to make the team out of training camp in 07 but he became a bit of a revelation throughout the 07-08 season. He played smart defensive hockey, he's mobile, he's not physical per se, but he is strong enough to handle opposition players.

I think we can expect his counting numbers to drop off a bit as it's unlikely he'll receive the same amount of PP time this year thanks to the acquisition of Visnovsky and a (hopefully) healthy Sheldon Souray.

Looking at Gilbert's behindthenet.ca numbers I think what really pops out are his PTS/60 and GFON which are both ranked pretty highly on the team. While his GAON wasn't particularly impressive even on the context of this team, certainly his GFON was.

This is a little bit disturbing; as LT points out, Gilbert's PTS/60 was near the top the of the division and I don't think we can expect him to continue at that level (although of course we can hope). That being said I think another year of playing and understanding what to expect at this level of hockey can only help him and hopefully his defensive numbers will improve a bit.

Projection: 1st pairing even strength defenceman
Key Stat: 2nd EVTOI/60 for defenceman and 2nd GFON/60

Anatomy of a Trade(s)

Yesterday at LT's I commented that the only way the last two days make a lot of sense is if you assume Pitkanen advised Lowe and the Oilers management, whether directly or indirectly, that he had no intention of re-signing with Edmonton, much in the way Pronger demanded a trade. I think if you look at the last two days not only are the moves more forgivable if you disagree with them, but they prove to actually be quite shrewed. Here's the evidence:

April 11th: Tom Gilbert is signed to a brand new $24 million/6 year contract.

April 14th: Denis Grebeshkov is signed to a one year contract.

Interpretation: Much like how Horcoff, Moreau, Pisani and Staios were signed before Smyth, the Oilers seem to prioritize the importance of their players based on the date on which they're signed. Tom Gilbert and Denis Grebeshkov were obviously higher priorities than Joni Pitkanen.

June 30th: Kevin Lowe trades Matt Greene and Jarret Stoll to the Los Angeles Kings for Lubomir Visnovsky, a puck moving defenceman in the vein of Joni Pitkanen. Lubomir Visnovsky is significantly older and more expensive than Pitkanen.

Interpretation: I'll ask one question: if there was a chance of signing Pitkanen, why trade for a(n approximate) duplicate player.

July 1: Joni Pitkanen, an RFA is traded to the Carolina Hurricanes for Eric Cole who is on the last year of a 3 year $4 million contract and is due to become a UFA at seasons end. He will almost certainly get a pay raise.

Interpretation: This could just be Lowe addressing a need and using a redundant piece to get it, but again, why the Visnovsky move? Couldn't Lowe have just traded Greene and Stoll (and potentially add Torres to the mix) for a forward like Cole? Jonathan also mentioned today that there must be a market for a guy like Souray as well, and I agree with him. Any of those guys could have been packaged for a Cole like player. So why Pitkanen?

July 2: Joni Pitkanen signs a three year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes at an average of $4 million per year ($3.5, $4.0, $4.5).

Interpretation: Pitkanen is immediately signed to a pretty reasonable $12 million/3 year, less that I (and I assume others) would have predicted he would get. About the same as Gilbert, although less years.

Length of term of course may have been an issue; Pitkanen may have not wanted to commit to Edmonton for 6 years and maybe would have taken 3 years. But then, if length of term was the issue, why trade for a guy who's signed for one year?

Add to that MacT's comments today on the Team 1260 (via Rod over at LT's):

"MacT interview on the Team 1260 (after the Katz presser) was very revealing. Topic of Pitkanen started out about a "difference in philosophy" as the reason he's gone. MacT said that was a "complimentary way of phrasing it". MacT went on to say he didn't see a commitment to win from Pitkanen (particularly a team game). Strides were made through the year though, so MacT thought they were making some progress (conversation at the end of the year reinforced that apparently).

Then, from what MacT said, Pitkanen informed the Oil he didn't want to come back. MacT figured that might become a pattern for Pitkanen and that he'll be a nomad."

I think we can safely assume by the known events and comments made by Oilers staff that Joni Pitkanen was simply uninterested in returning as an Edmonton Oiler and the Oilers built their 08-09 roster around that assumption.

That said, I think Lowe did an alright job with the hand he was dealt, mainly assuming he manages to extend Horcoff and re-sign Cole.

Random Thoughts

Flames

In the third period of the final of the 3 straight games against the Avalanche and the Flames are down a goal. How do you spell mediocre? F-L-A-M-E-S. Colorado is currently a bubble team and we can barely handle them. Sure, we're 1-1 in this 'series' but why have the Flames gone from being a team that can't score goals to a team that needs to score many goals?

Call me cynical, but I'm still not sold on Stuart. His +/- hasn't worsened since he got here, but, tonight for instance, he's been on the ice for 3 of Colorado's 4 goals. Actually, maybe thats just a sign he shouldn't be on the PK.

That brings me to the coaching this team has received. The on-ice talent needed to succeed is there, but the coaching staff seems unable to steer it in any useful direction. A team with this much talent should win consistently and meaningfully, however, the last two-three weeks have been anything but. Blowing leads late, early and midgame, blowing multiple goal leads, having terrible in zone coverage, these are characteristics that are extremely contrary to championship teams. The players need to be accountable, but so does the captain of the ship.

There are rumours Martin Gelinas will return to the team (from HF, so take it for what its worth). While no one would be happier about Gelinas' return than myself, I wonder what role he could play on our team. Amonte has become the Flames post '04 run Gelinas replacement, and although he's much crappier, they play almost identical roles. This gives us one redundant player, which is a waste. We would have to somehow get rid of Amonte, which I assume is impossible, or we would have done it already. I expect this rumour will never materialize, but I thought the same about Conroy, so I'm probably not the best judge.

I feel like we're about as far away from the Cup as we've ever been. Seriously. The way we're playing now, it'll be 4 or 5 and out.

I'm really looking forward to playing a team that isn't named 'Avalanche.'

We've now officially lost 2/3 in a series we should have been able to win 3/3.

Oilers

Between Senators practice and Oilers practice, former teammates get caught up: Danny Heatley, Steve Staios (teammates in Atlanta) along with Ethan Moreau and Mike Comrie.

Ok, lets put this season to bed. It's over. There's only one last order of business, and I've harped on it for quite some time. Kevin Lowe, if you're reading this, you know what to do.

Despite losing tonight, and in Buffalo last week, the Oilers have been playing some entertaining hockey. For those that actually ordered the PPV tonight, you got your money's worth. Sure, the Oil couldn't seem to hit the broad side of a barn door in that shootout, and Hemsky probably made you dizzy from circling the opposition net so much, but coming back from a two goal deficet with under 5 minutes is classic Oilers hockey.

Tom Gilbert and Mathieu Roy looked pretty good playing with eachother tonight actually. As far as I can tell, it was Gilbert's emergence as a decent AHL defenceman which allowed (forced?)the Oilers to trade Bergeron.

For that matter, Jacques and Winchester made nice bookends. I cringed when Morley Scott (or was it Rob Brown) mentioned JFJ was coming up with a lot of confidence thanks to his inspired play in the AHL of late (including a 4 goal game). That may well be, but you have to believe all JFJ can think about is 20GP, 0 goals.

MA Pouliot, what can you say? He looks like he's turning into a bonefide NHLer. He's been distributing the puck, mucking it up around the net, killing penalties (smartly I might add), and he's even put the puck in the net.

Nice to see Jussi get the start. If LT gets his way this could be one of Juice's last games with the franchise. He played about as well as you could hope, except for arguably the first goal. If not for Markkenan it could have been a lot uglier score tonight though.

On That's Hockey today Darren Dreger seemed to believe Lowe would not be trading Ryan Smyth and that he would be resigned in the off-season. I really hope thats true, as this team gives us flashes of what it could be.

Sounds like Brewer will re-sign in St. Louis, or at least, St. Louis is intent on re-signing him.