2008 World Championships - The Scoring Lines

Last year I started with trying to predict the goalies and then the defenceman and I never got a chance to look at the forward groups, so this year I'll probably go in reverse order just so I mix up my speculation a little.

Now aside from Canada/World Cups and Olympics since 2002, Canada seems to favour an international team that is filled with 'roles.' What I mean by role player is that Canada doesn't just look at the top 25 scorers and throw them together on the team; partly it's by necessity, most of the time (especially in the World Championships) the top 25 scorers aren't available. In this case they're in the playoffs, or hurt, and in the World Juniors they're often playing in the bigs and the teams don't make them available.

The other way we can predict the makeup of this team is age: The World Championships are a young man's tournament. Most grizzled vets are too tired or lack the will to continue playing, not to mention there's a big incentive for younger players; Canada treats this competition as a proving ground for higher profile tournaments such AS the Olympics. Basically, put in your time representing Canada and you'll get a higher consideration for the Olympics.

Now, I must make one caveat on this team, and it could throw my system for a loop. This is the first World Hockey Championship to be held on Canadian soil, and there might be a greater likelihood that established veterans and superstars will accept invites, knowing it's not going to be a big deal to bring the family along for a couple weeks. It's a wildcard and I'll be sure to include wildcard picks on my shortlist.

Typically Canada goes with 4 lines, each having a specific role:

A first line scoring group: It usually consists of the highest profile players who have a good point total for their NHL teams, along with maybe one grittier guy. In the past I've seen Dany Heatly and Brendan Morrow centered by Daniel Briere, Brad Boyes and Patrice Bergeron centered by Crosby, and most recently it was Rick Nash and Shane Doan, centered in the end by Matthew Lombardi.

A second line scoring group: Tends to consist of guys that are high end 2nd line players and maybe 1 marquee player. This is the line a Mike Comrie type of guy would usually be on. Last year it consisted of Eric Staal, Justin Williams/Jordan Staal, and Mike Cammalleri.

A third line shutdown unit: This is where Canada puts the defensive players/shutdown guys who love to put it deep and cycle. Oftentimes it's Canada's most consistent line because their task is very straightforward, and it seems like most European teams don't know what to think when they see a good cycle, let alone what to do. Last year it consisted of Jay McClement, Jamal Meyers and Jason Chimera.

A fourth line energy unit: This line tends to be a bit of a defensive liability at times, but they're often the biggest momentum shifters for Team Canada. A lot of times it's made up of defensive NHLers but a it's also guys that haven't been able to fulfill a scoring role, or finally, made up of really young guys that are attending mostly for experience. Last year it consisted of Jonathan Toews, Colby Armstrong and Justin Williams or more often, Jordan Staal.

Here's a shortlist of guys I think would be a good fit for the top two scoring lines.

Rick Nash - His coach in the NHL is the coach of the team, he's one of the most skilled forwards in the league and he has absolutely dominated this tournament on multiple occasions. There is every reason to expect he will be asked, and every reason to think he will go.

Shane Doan - Last year's Captain Canada, has consistently played for Canada (and played well), plays for Wayne Gretzky who I expect will be part of the coaching staff...he's got all the credentials and he's put in his time, but Doan is as old school as it gets and I suspect when asked he'll accept. And he will be asked.

Brad Boyes - I didn't even realize this until last weekend but Boyes has quietly racked up 41 goals, which is a hell of an accomplishment, especially on a team like St. Louis. Has played in two World Junior Championships and played on a line with Bergeron and Crosby back in the 2006 World Championships so I would bet he'll be invited to play.

Derek Roy - The Buffalo Sabres forward has a dynamic mix of skill and grit, and I think you could put him in on any of the four lines with confidence. If it were up to me though, I'd put him on the second line as a support player. Won a silver medal with Team Canada in the 2003 World Junior Championship.

Andy McDonald - I think one of two recent Cup winners that will receive an invite. Has not had a great statistical year by any means, but also represented Canada in the Worlds in 2002, where he lead the team in goals and points. (Wikipedia). His two way reputation could make him very attractive to Ken Hitchcock.

Dustin Penner - Canada loves inviting recent Stanley Cup winners, so while his ex-teammates like Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf continue on in the playoffs this year, Penner will benefit by bringing his experience, his size and yes, his touch around the net. The Oilers love their players going to this tournament, so I suspect if asked Penner will go and fill a 2nd line scoring role.

Eric Staal - If Carolina is eliminated he'll be asked. One day I believe we'll see the Staals as mainstays of team Canada but right now I don't think he's done enough to warrant a free pass. He was a bit inconsistent last year at times, going from average to a difference maker from game to game. If Carolina misses the playoffs, I believe Staal will be a top choice, whether he'll go is hard to tell.

Jonathan Toews - He played a very minor role last year, but Toews' place on Team Canada continues to grow. Starting as a 16 year old in the World Juniors winning a gold, to scoring several dramatic shootout goals as a 17 year old and winning the gold again in the World Juniors, to winning another gold medal at the World Championships. No one questions his skills, although a top line role might be a little too much for this young player. I do believe though he'll be on this team in some capacity.

Mike Cammalleri - Mike has been around team Canada many a times, and despite my consternation that he is invisible, he gets the job done. A bronze and a silver in the 2001 and 2002 World Junior Championships respectively, as well as a gold in the 2007 World Hockey Championships. Has had a poor season which will hurt his chances of selection, also someone I would not consider defensively solid.

Mike Comrie - think what you will of the diminutive Comrie, whenever called by Team Canada, he has answered. Won gold in 2003 when Anson Carter scored the OT winner against Sweden.

Wildcards:
Martin St. Louis - he's a guy who has a legitimate shot at the 2010 Olympics, but is not a lock by any means. He might need to put in some extra team for Team Canada, and play well, to convince Team Canada officials (Steve Yzerman in particular) that he deserves to be on the team. The fact that the tournament is mostly taking place in Quebec city could be an incentive for this Laval QC. native.

Vincent Lecavalier - Despite having some sort of wrist surgery, apparently Lecavalier hasn't actually said he won't play...yet. There's every reason to think he won't play (hasn't played in the Worlds since 2001, has clearly turned down offers to play overseas the last couple of years), there's always the chance he'll decide to perform in his home province in Quebec. Has played for Team Canada at the World Juniors in 1998, World Championships in 2001, World Cup of Hockey (winning MVP) in 2004, and 2006 Olympics.

Now none of this speculation even includes guys on teams who are garaunteed to make the playoffs, and as the first round comes to a close, it's anyone's guess who gets named to the team. Looking at this list I feel that if Eric Staal doesn't go then the team does not have a true number 1 center, and in that case, I don't think one will be named until the first round ends.

If the Senators falter early I would expect Jason Spezza to get a call. He's played for Team Canada a number of times but this could be a great opportunity for him to step up and take a larger role and create a larger presence for himself on the national team game. This is a good chance for him to learn a lesson about playing defence as well.

If Colorado gets eliminated early, does anyone think Ryan Smyth won't get a call?

If the Penguins are the victims of an upset by some upstart team with a guy named Alex Ovechkin playing for them, there's a centerman there who will most likely get a call.

I predict 3-5 of six spots on the top two lines will be filled by the players I've outlined here. If I were to guess I would say:

Nash -???- Doan
Boyes - Toews - Penner

Calgary Flames vs. Chicago Blackhawks - Jonathan Toews

I've been given the opportunity to observe the Chicago Blackhawks in person through both their Alberta NHL contests so I thought I would do something a little different than I usually do.

As regular readers of my blog (fictional?) know, I am a big Jonathan Toews fan. He's impressed me not just with his sublime skill (check out this clip for evidence) but also his commitment to sound positional play. For instance, not only was Toews employed multiple times in the same shootout to beat Team USA in the World Junior Championship, he was employed in the final game in more of a shutdown role. He seems to be adapting to the NHL quite well, so I wanted to see a game through the eyes of Jonathan Toews. To that end, as I watched the game I kept a running journal of significant plays made by on a shift per shift basis. I missed his first couple shifts in the game as well as his last shift in the second period, but here is my general record from a live vantage point.

1st Period
13:26-12:36 - Toews beats a Flame to the puck in corner of the offensive zone (OZ), centering a pass out to the opposite side defenceman on the point who decides against pinching and therefore receiving the pass

PK
11:14-10:30 - Toews wins defensive zone (DZ) draw and later on in the play clears the puck

7:03-6:17 - Toews wins draw (DZ) and later on in the shift gets a shot on in a broken play which produces a huge rebound

4:50-4:11 - Toews steals the puck from a Flame and has it stripped of him almost immediately, later on he sends a breakout pass to a streaking Hawk but it's a bit behind the play.

2nd period
PK
16:00 - 15:11 - Toews wins another DZ draw, later on he strips a Flame of the puck and clears it

13:41-12:54 - Toews loses a DZ faceoff

10:15-9:34 - Toews completes a couple of nice neutral zone passes and is effective on the forecheck

PK
8:04 - 7:06 - As Toews is covering the point Jarome Iginla becomes wide open in the slot, scoring Calgary's only goal of the game. Later on Toews has a breakout pass intercepted.

4:05-3:30 - Toews digs the puck out of the DZ corner and clears it
3rd Period
20:00-19:30 Toews clears a near miss at the side of the Hawks net. Later on in the play the puck is passed back to Adrian Aucoin on the point who promptly misjudges the pinch decision, allowing Patrick Sharp to test his 1-1 skill with Miikka Kipprusoff. Sharpe wins.

17:00-16:15 - Toews attempts to create an offensive rush with the puck, but he is easily handled at the blueline by the Flame defender

14:20-13:52 - Toews makes a nice takeaway and dumps the puck in the Flames zone before changing

12:15-11:50 - nothing significant

9:50-9:14 - Toews rushes with the puck, makes a fake dump in, steps around a Flame defender and ends up with the puck in the corner. It is later taken away from him.

7:20 -? Loses DZ draw

5:56 - 4:50 - Toews loses the puck behind the Flames net leading to a clear by the Flames

4:00 - misses DZ check high leading to a Flames scoring chance

3:11 - DZ draw win leading to a clear and an ice by the Hawks

3:00 Toews loses the defensive zone draw leading to a couple more Flames chances

2:00-1:20 - Toews' last shift. He dumps the puck into the OZ corner and then misses a pass. Later on he loses the puck in the neutral zone.

END OF GAME

So nothing spectacular from the kid but some solid smart plays and some important faceoff wins. From the naked eye it looked like Toews (and his linemates Tuomo Ruutu and Patrick Kane) drew Regehr and Sarich, while Vic Ferrari's Time on Ice shift chart confirms it (at least on even strength). Up front it looks like Matthew Lombardi, Owen Nolan and Eric Nystrom were given the task of competing with Chicago's top line, and I have to say, they did a pretty good job. Toews and Kane were neutralized for the whole game, I would say one mediocre scoring chance.

The Flames once again got beaten by a team with lesser names playing smarter hockey. I think that's all I'm going to say about that for now.

2007 Team Canada IIHF World Championship Roster - Disappoinments abound

The final 6 players named to round out Team Canada's roster are:
Colby Armstrong
Matthew Lombardi
Nick Shultz
Jonathan Toews
Chris Mason
Cory Murphy

The two most interesting of the group are Toews (the hero of this year's World Junior Championships for Canada) and Cory Murphy. Murphy played for a team in the Finnish Elite League, and although I don't know a lot about him, but I suspect he is no slouch. Prior to the start of Canada's exhibition game, Murphy was awarded the Top Defenceman Award for the Finnish Elite League. Canada has a history of adding Canadian born European players in this tournament, and oftentimes they serve as a very reassuring presence. They have a familiarity about the international game that NHLers seem to miss. Jamie Heward is a guy that played this role in the past, and he has actually used this tournament as a springboard to a legitimate NHL career (in fact, Murphy has just signed on with the Florida Panthers). Glen Metropolit is another player of that ilk.

Toews was a player added onto the 'practice roster' to fill in missing spots on the team, and obviously the coaches felt strongly enough about his pre-tournament play that he was added to the team. He was playing in between Nash and Doan and looked and that group apparently looked good in Canada's exhibition loss. Apperently, Chicago (Toews' NHL franchise) had been practically begging him to join the team at the end of the year. We shall see how he stacks up against NHLers I guess. I expect him to play on the 3rd/4th line.

Chris Mason is a bit of a coup for Canada. He played exceptionally well this season and last, and I think could play the number one role for Canada. As usual, Canada has an embarressment of riches in net, and I would be pretty comfortable with any of the three goalies starting. I would say Ward is the least likely starter because he had a bit of a sophmore slump and is the youngest, but I think they'll all be evaluated.

Nick Schultz is a veteran of this tournament, and I expect he'll play a 3rd pairing role with Mike Commodore.

Here's the projected lineup breakdown:

Nash - Cammaleri - Doan
Lombardi - Staal - Williams
Meyers - Chimera - McClement
Armstrong - Staal - Toews

Brewer - Jackman
Hamhuis - Weber
Schultz - Commodore
Murphy

Roloson
Mason
Ward

------

Even though this Team Canada edition looks pretty good, I think there were a lot of disappointments in terms of players turning down Canada. While I can't name names because I don't know the specifics, there are a lot of guys, that, in my opinion, should be outright crossed off the list of 2010 Olympic hopefuls. Team Canada needs to be very explicit that if you want to be considered, you have to attend these smaller tournaments.

In an interview by Dan Tencer, Andy Murray expresses his disappointment:

"The reasons that you gave are not legitimate at all. We've got Shane Doan over here who left 4 children to come over here and he's represented Canada every time Canada's called. The fact that you can't give two weeks to your country makes me shake my head when we're talking about young players. You talk about risk of injury...aren't players supposed to be playing in April and May? I take a look at the Edmonton Oilers...let me tell you, every time you call the Oilers and you ask for a player the team supports it.

Other than a veteran player who has served Canada many times in these situations, there is no excuse. Unless you've got a bone sticking through the skin, I can't see there being an injury that would cause a player not to come...I recognize knee injuries and stuff that players have to have done, too. Some of the reasons we've been given just are not satisfactory." (Source)

Read the full interview here.

Canada's participation in the tournament starts April 28th at 6:15 MST on TSN. The full schedule can be found here.

The Price is Right or Toewed by the Bell

In a game where everything seemed decided by the start of the third period, Canada gutted out a 7th round shootout victory over the United States to advance to the U-20 World Jr. Championship gold medal game.

The Americans, counted out by many (including myself) early in the tournament, looked like a completely different team than the one the Canadians faced last week. With a forecheck and puck possession game that seemed to befuddle team Canada, the Americans lead at the halfway mark with a goal by Oilers prospect and team USA captain Taylor Chorney. The goal was a PP that banked in off of Marc Stall's skate, who looked to the sky in frustration after surrendering the first go-behind goal against Canada. While the American PP dealt a crucial blow to the Canadians, the Canadian PP looked anemic at best.

Halfway through the game my idea was to give my 'therealdeal' of the night award to the American PK unit, who dominated the Canadians by blocking virtually every Canadian shot and forcing the Canadians into bad plays. Kris Russel, the player who Pierre Maguire has been lauding for having the ability to get shots to the net, looked absolutely lost and had his worst game of the tournament by far.

During the 2nd intermission, things looked bleak for Canada. Bob Mackenzie talked about how this was a test for Canada, and how this was the first time they faced adversity in this tournament. I couldn't have agreed more with Bob, although my particular conclusion was that Canada was done. They looked terrible, they looked defused, they looked broken. The two bright spots were Carey Price, making what was essentially a perfect effort and keeping Canada in a game they shouldn't have been, and Marc Stall dominating defensively, using his body to make some big hits and using his long reach to defuse several potential scoring opportunities for the Americans.

But from the first faceoff in the third, the Canadians looked like a different hockey team. Players like Kristopher Letang began to win battles along the offensive zone blueline. Eventually the Americans were forced into taking another penalty, then another, leading to a Canadian 5-3 advantage. While the Americans killed off the first penalty, they were not so lucky the second time around, with an otherwise lacklustre Luc Bourdon nailing a one timed shot top corner. While the Americans complained 16 year old Sam Gagne (who was the penalized player the Americans scored their PP marker) was in the crease, the replay clearly showed it was a clean goal.

In overtime, the Americans once again used their speed and puck control to dominate the play. Eventually Kris Letang made a mental mistake and he lazily one handidly high sticked Jack Johnson who was in on the forecheck. The Canadians caught a very lucky break in that the referee only called a 2 minute minor on a high stick that undoubtedly drew blood.

Enter the Carey Price show once again. Up 4 men to 3 because of the 4-4 overtime format, the Americans patiently waited for their chances on the PP. Eric Johnson masterfully quarter backed the PP, even as the boos reigned down upon him from the Canadian fans, still bitter after Johnson's last minute cheap shot on Downie in last years matchup. But every time the Americans got a chance, Price shut them down, and as the last seconds of the 2 minute straight without a whistle PP for the Americans died down, Ryan Parent, after heroically playing the full PK got off the ice, and the Canadians again bent but did not break. With nothing solved in the OT period, even with the Americans outshooting Canada 12-2, the game headed to the dreaded but dramatic shootout.

This is where I witnessed what I believe to be possibly the single greatest individual effort in all of sports history. While Canada won the cointoss and elected to shoot first, initial shooters for both teams (Downie for Canada, Patrick Kane for USA) were shut down, the second scorers for both teams potted a goal (Bryan Little for Canada, and Peter Muller for the Americans). That is where Jonathan Toews stepped in. After scoring a penalty shot goal against the Americans in the round robin matchup of this year, I felt it was unlikely Toews would be successful again. Just look at shootout percentages for NHL shooters in SOs and penalty shots. 50% is an impressive number in the SO. But Canada needed this goal, now.

But score Toews did, nailing a perfect shot low blocker on American goalie Jeffrey Frazee, who played an outstanding game himself. Jack Johnson replied for the Americans a shot later.

After 3 shooters each, the SO moved to 1 round sudden death, in which you could use any shooter you wanted from the previous rounds. Bryan Little, on his second shot, missed, and the Americans had a chance to put the game away. But once again, Carey Price stepped in, stopping Kane on the shootout. Canada went back to Toews for the next shot? What was it I said earlier about successive shots? But again, Toews confidently fired the puck into the top right corner of the net, hitting post and in on what could only be described as a perfect shot. Jack Johnson once again replied for the Americans, an impressive feat by itself. Cogliano shot next for Canada, slamming one in low glove side, and once again, the Americans replied with a goal, fending off elimination.

Finally, Toews stepped up one more time. As he went in it looked like American goaltender Fracee had Toews beat. Toews however had other plans, and he fired it past Frazee for what is essentially a 4th straight one-one goalie battle, (one penalty shot, 3 shootout shots). Peter Muller shot for the Americans, but Price once again stood tall, shutting down Muller's attempted 5 hole shot.

And thats the way the game was. Canada faces the winner of the second semi-final today in the final on Friday.

therealdeal of the night: Obviously Carey Price and Jonathan Toews played a huge role in this game, but for my money, the best non goalie of the match had to be Marc Stall. While the rest of this vaunted defensive group looked tentative, unprepared, overmatched, slow, Marc Stall lead the way, dominating everytime he came near the puck. He was Canada's best player over 70 minutes of play, getting in the way of American players, eliminating opposition offensive efforts down low, making fantastic breakout passes (which were sorely lacking today), getting his long reach and big stick involved in the play, and just generally staying calm amidst what was at one point a sea of panic.

edit: and for those readers wondering why I spelled it 'Muller' instead of 'Mueller,' well I originally had it 'Mueller' but the official game summary provided by Hockey Canada had it spelled 'Muller.' Officially, I'm almost positive it's spelled 'Mueller.'

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

Two games into this tournament and Canada is 2-0, and while there is still a long ways to go, a lot of questions have been answered.

Game one was a clinic by the Swedes on how to play on the big ice surface, using their forecheck and positioning to really difuse the Canadian attack most of the time. I thought that if the Swedes didn't actually outchance the Canadians, it was damn close. The difference was that Canada buried its chances, while the Swedes managed to find a way not to score on every occasion. This game was proof that the Canadians are not going to run over the competition ala the Dream Team in 2005, and that the Swedes are true Medal contenders.

The number one question answered by game 1 was that of goaltending. Carey Price was outstanding all game long, stifling the skilled Swedish attackers, including what Pierre Maguire has dubbed 'the killer b line,' consisting one of the most skilled players in the tournament, Niklas Backstrom. While I did say earlier that the game was close, I never felt (one the Canadians were up 2-0 especially) that it was particularily in doubt. Carey Price was simply playing too well.

Game 2 verse the Americans today was a much more exciting, North American style game, and it was also notable for several bizarre events.

The Good? Canada wins 6-3 on the strength of 2 goals in the last 2 minutes, and Jonathan Toews (pronounced 'Tayvs') emerged as one of the tournament's best. He had several impressive shifts including a dominating cycle shift in the first, a great rebound goal (also in the first) and a breakaway in the third which led to a converted penalty shot goal, killing whatever momentum the Americans were playing.

In addition, Canada faced some adversity with the Americans scoring two quick goals in the second, and coming within one in the third, but played smart hockey and never altered from the gameplan. In addition, the coaching staff has to be commended for keeping cool under the pressure from both the Americans and the poor reffereeing.

Although Skille got the player of the game award for the Americans, I thought Bill Sweat deserved it as he had a goal and rushed the puck into the Canadian zone for an assist on another goal. One of the better American players on the night.

The Bad? The officiating. From the start of the puck there were several bizarre calls and non calls. A slashing call from a poke check, a cross-checking from a push, several phantom slashes, culminating into a Claude Lemieux on Mike Vernon Stanley Cup finals type play, in which and American player blatantly ran Carey Price, which directly led to a goal for the Americans. The officials could have called the play on either the goalie interferece, OR man in the crease without the puck, but blew both calls, cutting Canada's lead in half.

The American's duo of Jack and Eric Johnson were impressive at times, but also got caught several times for goals against. On Toews' third period breakaway Jack Johnson actually threw his stick at Toews to try and stop him. Eric Johnson took a badly timed penalty (can't remember what the actual call was, but the penalty was an elbow) to give the Canadians an extended 5-3 when the Americans only trailed by one in the score.

To be fair though, the duo played fairly well all night, with Eric scoring a goal, and both at times controlling the play in the Canadian end especially.

The Ugly? The poor state of Team USA Hockey's program. The team is year after year living on the edge of mediocrity but they refuse to change their outdated development system or their strange player selection process. Bobby Ryan not on the team?