The Shape of Things To Come

With the absolutely necessary signing of Shawn Horcoff, the Oilers have cemented a couple issues. One: Lowetide changed his site's signature from 'Sign Sean Horcoff' to 'Horcoff Signed!'
Two: We can now predict with some small level of certainty what the team will look like for at least the next few years. And except for a couple of albatrosses, things look pretty good. Let's look at some roster projections barring any trades.

Let's look at the Oilers roster and ages as of 09-10

Penner(27) - Horcoff(31) - Hemsky(26)
Nilsson(24) - Gagner(20) - Cogliano (22)
Moreau(35) - Pouliot(24) - Pisani(33)
Stortini(24)

Visnovsky(33) - Souray(33)
Staios(36) - Gilbert(26)

The 10-11 season:

Penner(28) - Horcoff(32) - Hemsky(27)
Nilsson (25)
Moreau(36)
Stortini(25)

Visnovsky(34) - Souray(34)
Staios(37) - Gilbert(27)

The Core
Looking at this lineup, we can deduce a few upcoming moves and probably when they will happen. Most obvious here is that the Oilers have their core forward group locked up until at least the end of next season, and the guys they have invested a lot of chips in (Penner, Horcoff, Hemsky) through the 10-11 season.

Coming Attractions
The young guns (Gagner, Cogliano, Brodziak) are not immediate concerns but Lowe already needs to start planning his next group of long term contracts around these guys. They're bargains now but where is the cap space going to come when they need resigning. We could be looking at $4-$6 million dollar contracts at the higher end.

Old Grey Horse
The Oilers have invested a lot of chips into Visnovski and Souray who are both already at or past their prime years, unless of course they take the Nik Lidstrom course of action and just keep getting better and better. This means that as the forward group is nearing their prime the Oilers' top defenceman are leaving it. The timing is not good. Reading the tea leaves one of the two is out of town if the opportunity arises. Probably Souray.

Something Has To Give
The Oilers' defensive future isn't really signed. Tom Gilbert is certainly a part of it, no doubt, but given the ages of the other defenceman I think the Oilers have to bank something on Grebeshkov or someone else in that age range. Right or wrong, the defensive group is built for today and the forward group for tomorrow. Something has to give.

Dangerous Game
Where are the goalies? Good question. Deslauriers resigned and I would think he is being groomed to be the new backup while Rolie plays out the rest of his contract this season. Garon, meanwhile, is unsigned after 08-09. Obviously then, the Oiler's top priority between now and July 1 2009 is finding a number 1 goaltender. I would say the plan is to play Garon as the number 1 this season, judge how he reacts, and then resign him, although to believe Lowe isn't flying by the seat of his pants might be a misjudgement. Call this the 'Smyth Plan?'

Long Term Priority List:
Sign a number 1 goalie, Garon or otherwise
Trade or buyout Sheldon Souray
Don't escalate commitment into Penner or Souray if they aren't working out.

Thoughts?

2008 World Championships - The Scoring Lines

Last year I started with trying to predict the goalies and then the defenceman and I never got a chance to look at the forward groups, so this year I'll probably go in reverse order just so I mix up my speculation a little.

Now aside from Canada/World Cups and Olympics since 2002, Canada seems to favour an international team that is filled with 'roles.' What I mean by role player is that Canada doesn't just look at the top 25 scorers and throw them together on the team; partly it's by necessity, most of the time (especially in the World Championships) the top 25 scorers aren't available. In this case they're in the playoffs, or hurt, and in the World Juniors they're often playing in the bigs and the teams don't make them available.

The other way we can predict the makeup of this team is age: The World Championships are a young man's tournament. Most grizzled vets are too tired or lack the will to continue playing, not to mention there's a big incentive for younger players; Canada treats this competition as a proving ground for higher profile tournaments such AS the Olympics. Basically, put in your time representing Canada and you'll get a higher consideration for the Olympics.

Now, I must make one caveat on this team, and it could throw my system for a loop. This is the first World Hockey Championship to be held on Canadian soil, and there might be a greater likelihood that established veterans and superstars will accept invites, knowing it's not going to be a big deal to bring the family along for a couple weeks. It's a wildcard and I'll be sure to include wildcard picks on my shortlist.

Typically Canada goes with 4 lines, each having a specific role:

A first line scoring group: It usually consists of the highest profile players who have a good point total for their NHL teams, along with maybe one grittier guy. In the past I've seen Dany Heatly and Brendan Morrow centered by Daniel Briere, Brad Boyes and Patrice Bergeron centered by Crosby, and most recently it was Rick Nash and Shane Doan, centered in the end by Matthew Lombardi.

A second line scoring group: Tends to consist of guys that are high end 2nd line players and maybe 1 marquee player. This is the line a Mike Comrie type of guy would usually be on. Last year it consisted of Eric Staal, Justin Williams/Jordan Staal, and Mike Cammalleri.

A third line shutdown unit: This is where Canada puts the defensive players/shutdown guys who love to put it deep and cycle. Oftentimes it's Canada's most consistent line because their task is very straightforward, and it seems like most European teams don't know what to think when they see a good cycle, let alone what to do. Last year it consisted of Jay McClement, Jamal Meyers and Jason Chimera.

A fourth line energy unit: This line tends to be a bit of a defensive liability at times, but they're often the biggest momentum shifters for Team Canada. A lot of times it's made up of defensive NHLers but a it's also guys that haven't been able to fulfill a scoring role, or finally, made up of really young guys that are attending mostly for experience. Last year it consisted of Jonathan Toews, Colby Armstrong and Justin Williams or more often, Jordan Staal.

Here's a shortlist of guys I think would be a good fit for the top two scoring lines.

Rick Nash - His coach in the NHL is the coach of the team, he's one of the most skilled forwards in the league and he has absolutely dominated this tournament on multiple occasions. There is every reason to expect he will be asked, and every reason to think he will go.

Shane Doan - Last year's Captain Canada, has consistently played for Canada (and played well), plays for Wayne Gretzky who I expect will be part of the coaching staff...he's got all the credentials and he's put in his time, but Doan is as old school as it gets and I suspect when asked he'll accept. And he will be asked.

Brad Boyes - I didn't even realize this until last weekend but Boyes has quietly racked up 41 goals, which is a hell of an accomplishment, especially on a team like St. Louis. Has played in two World Junior Championships and played on a line with Bergeron and Crosby back in the 2006 World Championships so I would bet he'll be invited to play.

Derek Roy - The Buffalo Sabres forward has a dynamic mix of skill and grit, and I think you could put him in on any of the four lines with confidence. If it were up to me though, I'd put him on the second line as a support player. Won a silver medal with Team Canada in the 2003 World Junior Championship.

Andy McDonald - I think one of two recent Cup winners that will receive an invite. Has not had a great statistical year by any means, but also represented Canada in the Worlds in 2002, where he lead the team in goals and points. (Wikipedia). His two way reputation could make him very attractive to Ken Hitchcock.

Dustin Penner - Canada loves inviting recent Stanley Cup winners, so while his ex-teammates like Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf continue on in the playoffs this year, Penner will benefit by bringing his experience, his size and yes, his touch around the net. The Oilers love their players going to this tournament, so I suspect if asked Penner will go and fill a 2nd line scoring role.

Eric Staal - If Carolina is eliminated he'll be asked. One day I believe we'll see the Staals as mainstays of team Canada but right now I don't think he's done enough to warrant a free pass. He was a bit inconsistent last year at times, going from average to a difference maker from game to game. If Carolina misses the playoffs, I believe Staal will be a top choice, whether he'll go is hard to tell.

Jonathan Toews - He played a very minor role last year, but Toews' place on Team Canada continues to grow. Starting as a 16 year old in the World Juniors winning a gold, to scoring several dramatic shootout goals as a 17 year old and winning the gold again in the World Juniors, to winning another gold medal at the World Championships. No one questions his skills, although a top line role might be a little too much for this young player. I do believe though he'll be on this team in some capacity.

Mike Cammalleri - Mike has been around team Canada many a times, and despite my consternation that he is invisible, he gets the job done. A bronze and a silver in the 2001 and 2002 World Junior Championships respectively, as well as a gold in the 2007 World Hockey Championships. Has had a poor season which will hurt his chances of selection, also someone I would not consider defensively solid.

Mike Comrie - think what you will of the diminutive Comrie, whenever called by Team Canada, he has answered. Won gold in 2003 when Anson Carter scored the OT winner against Sweden.

Wildcards:
Martin St. Louis - he's a guy who has a legitimate shot at the 2010 Olympics, but is not a lock by any means. He might need to put in some extra team for Team Canada, and play well, to convince Team Canada officials (Steve Yzerman in particular) that he deserves to be on the team. The fact that the tournament is mostly taking place in Quebec city could be an incentive for this Laval QC. native.

Vincent Lecavalier - Despite having some sort of wrist surgery, apparently Lecavalier hasn't actually said he won't play...yet. There's every reason to think he won't play (hasn't played in the Worlds since 2001, has clearly turned down offers to play overseas the last couple of years), there's always the chance he'll decide to perform in his home province in Quebec. Has played for Team Canada at the World Juniors in 1998, World Championships in 2001, World Cup of Hockey (winning MVP) in 2004, and 2006 Olympics.

Now none of this speculation even includes guys on teams who are garaunteed to make the playoffs, and as the first round comes to a close, it's anyone's guess who gets named to the team. Looking at this list I feel that if Eric Staal doesn't go then the team does not have a true number 1 center, and in that case, I don't think one will be named until the first round ends.

If the Senators falter early I would expect Jason Spezza to get a call. He's played for Team Canada a number of times but this could be a great opportunity for him to step up and take a larger role and create a larger presence for himself on the national team game. This is a good chance for him to learn a lesson about playing defence as well.

If Colorado gets eliminated early, does anyone think Ryan Smyth won't get a call?

If the Penguins are the victims of an upset by some upstart team with a guy named Alex Ovechkin playing for them, there's a centerman there who will most likely get a call.

I predict 3-5 of six spots on the top two lines will be filled by the players I've outlined here. If I were to guess I would say:

Nash -???- Doan
Boyes - Toews - Penner

Dustin Penner Sure Does Suck

I’m going to preface this by saying last night’s edition of the Battle of Alberta was actually pretty good through the first two periods (and I didn’t get to see the 3rd). Edmonton looked pretty good even though they were mostly in the game thanks to the Flames taking bad (but legitimate) penalties. At 1-1 an Oiler fan watching with me said ‘at least the Oilers are in the game,’ and I replied, wait till it’s even strength. I think the minute the Flames killed that PK the game turned and Langkow and Iginla took over.

Huselius continues to be the most sublime Flames player since Theoren Fleury and Mike Keenan has yet to trade him. The Flames are 4-3 and quite honestly look better than this time last year. At this time of the year though it’s still the Oilers who are the more intriguing story.

Sam Gagner’s time with the club this season could be running out, but he has probably done just about everything to stick. He’s been a good player on a bad club who are running out of options. His first goal last night was the result of good position and some hard stretching by Sean Horcoff. Hell, even Matt Greene made a nice play (and had a good hit on Kristian Huselius in the game as well, a guy who is elusive to the best of defenceman).

Cogliano had a couple more good chances, and I thought he looked good with Hemsky (who really needs to bring his A game sooner rather than later).

There is one question that keeps running through my mind though; Why does Dustin Penner suck so bad?

Or perhaps more specifically, why did Kevin Lowe believe he could play the tough minutes and succeed?

Here is a guy who by all accounts cannot skate very well, cannot handle the puck very well, and who has very average instincts. He is downright bad at the transition game and is not great at finding open ice in the offensive zone.

I suppose there is no real answer to this question besides Lowe was desperate to keep his job and running out of options. I guess the plan worked for Lowe anyway.

MacTavish made some comments at the beginning of the year about possibly playing Horcoff on a shutdown line rather than on the top line, but so far I see little evidence of that idea being put into action. I haven’t been specifically keeping track of Horcoff’s opponents, but last night he was playing with Sam Gagner, and there is no way Gagner is on any type of shutdown line.

Right now the Oilers don’t look terrible, they really don’t but they aren’t finding ways to win. I think MacT’s time (rightly or wrongly) is running out and it’s time to play with some ideas.
What about 5 man units, stabilize the team a bit and give the guys out their some chemistry and a definitive role.

I’ll examine possible units next time.

What the Super Series Means to the Edmonton Oilers

I've been meaning to get to this post idea for a while because there are a lot of (at least) short term implications of the Super Series for the Edmonton Oilers. First up, the direct impact of Sam Gagner.

I've had the opportunity to watch Gagner in one live Team Canada u-20 camp tryout and all the World Jr. Hockey Championship games, and I got to see him briefly in the game today (although I wasn't able to watch too closely due to being at work and all). His goal today was pretty nice, and his assist was nice as well. He was drafted by the Oilers this June 6th overall and by all accounts is a very good hockey player with a high degree of leadership potential. I wanted the Oilers to select Karl Alzner, but I'm as liable with draft errors as anyone, and Alzner wasn't available by that point in the draft anyway. He was named player of the game today so odds are it was hard to go wrong with either of them.

Gagner's play in this tournament could have a big effect on his future. If he continues to look like he did today, Oilers fans will be very happy with Lowe. Even if he turns out to be a crap NHLer, it'll be difficult to accuse Lowe of misfiring - Gagner just looks good right now period. But if he has a very bad tournament, it will look bad on Lowe. Another player seemingly picked on a very small sample viewing with an outlier performance.

The one that got away could make Lowe look pretty bad over the next two weeks as well. Alexi Cherepanov has had comparable numbers (better actually) than Kovalchuk, Malkin and Ovechkin in the RSL. Kevin Lowe actually had two gauranteed opportunities to draft him in June's entry drafft, but as Pierre Maguire said at the time, Kevin Lowe isn't going to pick a Russian (xenophobia perhaps? Sorry Kevin...). Brad Marchand claimed that "When we were in the World Junior Championship, he didn't step up at all. All we had to do was play our game and he was a ghost out there. Any time anyone has a chance to hit him, we have to hit him," and maybe that's why Kevin Lowe didn't bother picking Cherepanov, although one suspects it had more to do with the transfer agreement problems. Either way, if Cherepanov steps up and is the player many believe he is, Kevin Lowe will look terrible. He's dodged the bullet a few times this summer but one has to wonder how many more rounds are in the chamber and how much jump Kevin has left.

Finally, the tournament is featuring one defenceman named Drew Doughty and one forward named John Tavares. Those are two guys that could have been Oiler's property if Kevin Lowe hadn't offered Dustin Penner that outrageous offer sheet, giving up his first rounder next year. Now Tavares' draft eligibility is in question, so that may become a null problem. Doughty however, is a sure fire early first rounder for next year. He is a top notch defenceman of which the Oilers desperately covet. The odds of the Oilers actually being eligible for the spot necessary for Doughty was low, but now it's zero.

I think Canada can and will win this mini Summit Series tournament. The real question is whether Kevin Lowe will come out a winner or loser.

'The Hockey News Top 50' - Oilers

Chris Pronger -05
Ryan Smyth - 34

oh wait....

update:

none

but Dustin Penner is listed as a 'Top Young Gun' who 'should grow alongside his youthful linemates.' Let's hope they're referring to Hemsky and Horcoff and not Perry and Getzlaf.

Brian Burke's Relationship with Kevin Lowe to Change

Brian Burke's conference call with the media wrapped up this afternoon with Burke pulling no punches in his description of Kevin Lowe. Some highlights:

On the offer from Lowe:

I thought that was gutless. I have no problem with offer sheets. They're part of the CBA. But in my opinion, Edmonton has offered a mostly inflated salary for a player, and I think it's an act of desperation for a general manager who is fighting to keep his job


On whether he and Lowe speak often,

We used to, quite a bit.

On whether that will continue,

I have no idea



It honestly seems to me Burke is more steamed about the way Lowe went about this, or just the fact that Lowe did go about this, than he is about losing a hockey player, which as an Oiler fan is very bad news. Honestly, if any GM has the motivation to keep Kevin Lowe around it should be Burkie. I mean, that ring Kevin gave to him in the spring should be worth at least one tongue bite.

I guess they're just like every married couple though. Once Burke got that ring I guess it doesn't matter anymore. Can't take it away.

link to the transcript

Kukla's Korner reaction

Kevin Lowe No Longer Wants to Be an NHL GM

Kevin Lowe signed Dustin Penner to a $21.5/5 offer sheet this afternoon, and it's a bad move for a number of reasons, most of which Lowetide has already summed up.

Goodbye Drew Doughty. Goodbye John Tavares. Goodbye Steven Stamkos. Hello years of futility.

While I thought the Vanek offer wasn't a prudent move, I could at least accept the numbers and player quality involved. Vanek has shown the potential to be another Ales Hemsky type player (or better) and having a couple of guys like that on the team would have been ok, even given the draft pick cost. The price was high, but I think it was a very fair offer and by the time Vanek hits free agency he'll be hearing numbers higher than that. At worst the Vanek move was reckless, but at best it was slick.

The Penner offer has none of the shrewdness of the Vanek offer. You could argue Vanek's numbers were inflated, but drop them all even 30% and they were still pretty respectable. Penner doesn't come close to the Vanek's production numbers, he's much older, and his competition was approximately equal (as arguably were his linemates).

Darcy Regier had the motivation and cap space to bail Lowe out of his idiocy.

Brian Burke has absolutely no reason to sign Penner for that much money, and I doubt he has the room anyway. Besides, if anyone loves draft picks it's Burke; I guarantee right now he's licking his chops thanking Lowe for giving him far more back than Penner would have received in any sort of trade deal.

This total string of idiocy has lead me to one conclusion. Kevin Lowe no longer wants to be an NHL general manager.

Other reactions:

Battle of California
"Joffry Lupul II"

Covered in Oil
"At $4.3 million a year, it's a reasonable offer on a burgeoning talent..."

Five Hole Fanatics
"Were I Brian Burke, I'd take the draft picks and run."