Calgary Flames vs. San Jose Sharks: Anything Can Happen

Well, we just saw the Flames put in their best 60 minute effort of the series and perhaps we've finally seen a glimpse of the type of hockey this team can play. IMO there were a couple key things tonight that precipitated the win.

1. Keenan played a terrific matchup game. He used the Regehr/Sarich pairing to perfection against the Thornton line, he made sure the Nystrom/Primeau/Moss line was up against the soft opposition.

2. Guys stepping up. Anders Eriksson played maybe the best game I've seen him play, David Moss played his role to perfection (except that forgettable 3-1 which he overcomplicated), I think Kristian Huselius played a very good game, and lastly, Miikka Kiprusoff with the shutout.

3. Matthew Lombardi continues his defensive effectiveness. He CANNOT seem to convert his chances but he's just doing everything else so well. Another couple blocked shots tonight, making a lot of good decisions out there in general. I feel very comfortable with his play.

4. Owen Nolan has been about as clutch a player as the Flames have had this postseason. We've seen by far his best efforts this season and he now has 2 game winners this series, a pretty impressive feat. MG has validly questioned Nolan's 2nd line presence, but there's no doubt right now Nolan's earning it.

A valid question on the fan 960 after the game; Are the Flames this good or did the Sharks play this bad?

Is this not the closest series you've ever seen? Every game a 1 goal difference except for each team's 2-0 shutout victory.

Might not get a chance to comment on G7 with my current schedule, so I'll just say this. It's game 7, anything can happen.

Go Flames!!

Calgary Flames: What Can We Expect?

I'm just sitting here watching Hockey Day in Canada and after the events of the past week or so I think the rest of the season is coming into focus for both Calgary and Edmonton, although tonight I will focus exclusively on Calgary.

Of note before I get into it is a conversation I had with a Flames compatriot at the Saddledome regarding Owen Nolan. After being a replacement Tony Amonte for much of the early season (as well as being injury prone), Nolan should be looked at as a pretty successful FA signing if he hits certain criteria. He's got 14G and I think 20G would be a respectable, he's on a pretty close pace. His ES quality of competition is ranked as 6th on the team (I'm going to ignore Ramholt), his CORSI is a +5.0 and he's got a On Ice/Off Ice/60 rating of 0.07, which although paltry compared to Iginla's +2.32, is at least on the positive end of zero. I think we can all agree that although Nolan might not be a captain on the ship, he's certainly not an anchor.

Ok, now onto what we can expect for the final quarter of the season:

A Trade:
MG at Five Hole Fanatics has done a lot of blogging about the Tanguay trade rumors, siding on the 'don't trade Tanguay' and the 'Tanguay is worth more than Huselius' side of the debate. So will Tanguay be traded? I think it was Duncan at Flames Blog who said that more than likely the trade that Sutter will make will be completely unexpected in terms of his target and who he trades. I'll agree. I think though that we can make a couple of statements with an near absolute certainty, and then I'll make a couple of completely speculative comments as well.

Firstly, I think I can safely predict neither Iginla, nor Regehr, nor Kiprussoff, nor Phaneuf will be traded. Secondly, the Flames will not acquire Petr Forsberg.

Now for the speculation: I agree with MG when he says that the Flames biggest problem is not the forward group, its the defence. There are two bonafied defenceman, a couple of guys who are not bad, and then some who are simply too injured or too terrible to be consistently counted upon. Would the Flames have the same record they do today if Giordano and Ference were in the lineup for Ericksson and Warrener or Hale? I know who I'd rather have, given the choice.

So we can speculate about Mats Sundin but for my money I'd rather have Sutter go after a solid defenceman to compliment the group.

Inconsistency:
I like watching Dr. Phil because I think it probably provides the most laughs per minute of any other scripted comedy show, but I think he's right when he says the best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour. Last year about this time the Flames went on a surge, and then they played terribly through March and then limped into the postseason and got worked by Detroit. This year had a terrible October and November, followed by an outstanding December and pretty good January, now a mediocre February. Can anyone tell me a reason not to expect inconsistency? We've already had the monthly 'Sutter visits the dressing room' event, and we'll probably see a few more.

The Dion Effect:
If there's one singular area where Darryl Sutter has excelled it's that he has very aptly identified the core of his team and rewarded them in terms of dollars. While Calgary's salary is extremely top heavy, it's at least going to the right guys. (Sutter's job identifying value in his perimeter players is less commendable). Now it's time for those core guys to step up. Besides Iginla, I don't think we've seen the other core guys' best this year. I think Regehr can play better, Phaneuf has truly stepped up his game in the past couple of weeks, and it's obvious Miikka Kiprusoff can play better. Alex Tanguay should be in that group too, and despite my concerns about him I know he can put a few more pucks in the net. There's no more money to spend this year, at this point the guys earning the big bucks have to prove they're worth it. It's not just about leadership now, it's about results.

The Goal:
There's been some talk of the goal as being finishing 1st in the conference, but make no mistake about it, the Flames have one single goal in the regular season: DO NOT FINISH 8th. Playing Detroit does not look like it's any better of a matchup this year than it was last year, and I am sure it doesn't matter if the Flames finish 2nd or 7th, the matchups will all probably be pretty even. Obviously the Stanley Cup is the ultimate goal, but after two consecutive first round losses, I think we can qualify this season as a success by winning a playoff round.

Calgary Flames - The Missing Piece?

MG has rightly spent a good part of this Flames season complaining about 3 key problems:

1. A top heavy forward lineup
2. An ugly group of overpaid veterans taking up spots on the bottom 6 from equally capable but cheaper youngsters
3. Craig Conroy's presence on the first line

Problem number one showed a slight sign of release about 2 weeks ago for the second edition of the Battle of Alberta. Owen Nolan, spurred on by linemates Matthew Lombardi and Eric Nystrom, scored a goal and also an assist. Lombardi had a goal and an assist. Nystrom had two assists.

From my vantage point the third line has been significantly less useless since this game. They haven't always been chipping in, but it seems like their assignments have gotten bigger and they've been getting scored on less. I wondered if this had something do with Eric Nystrom's callup, and if maybe his presence had given the third line that extra bit they needed. If in fact Nystrom was making a contribution to the team's success, it could affect the severity of problem 2. First of all, I'd like to mention my argument presupposes a number of things, one of them being that Nystrom generally plays on a line with Nolan and Lombardi. Sometimes that may not be true but basically looking up his timeonice numbers would have complicated the subject more than I believed it needed to be.

Anyway, here is a selection of his behindthenet.ca numbers:

Firstly, Nystrom is playing a pretty high level of competition 5-5. Desjardins has him playing a QOC of 0.04, good enough to be tied for 4th on the team with Robyn Regehr and Cory Sarich. To put it in perspective, Phaneuf is playing 0.03 and Aucoin 0.02. In other words, it seems like Nystrom is playing the second toughest competition in Calgary's lineup, with Conroy, Iginla and Tanguay playing the toughest.

Next, his GFON/60 is 2.02 while his GAON/60 1.61, which tells us that over a course of 60 minutes, the Flames tend to outscore the opposition when Nystrom is on the ice. While we find the Flames score more goals when Nystrom is off the ice (GFOFF/60 2.15), they also let the opposition score a lot more, his GAOFF/60 being 2.27. Not bad for a guy playing quality competition.

I wish I could have tracked the Desjardins numbers for Nystrom's linemates before and after he started playing, but I can keep track of their points. Before that game against the Oilers, Nolan had 1G and 3A with a -1. Since that game, Nolan has 3G, 1A and is a +2. Lombardi had 5G, 6A and was a plus 5. Since then Lombardi has gotten 2G, 3A and is a plus 4. Nystrom, for his part, has 0G and 3A +3 since that game. His totals are 1G 3A +/-0.

I guess looking at the raw numbers, the results are a little uneven. Lombardi's totals seemed to have slowed over this period, Nolan's have stayed steady, while we're working of a really small sample for Nystrom. The true positive is that all three have been positives for the team over the last 6 games, despite the Flames only going .500. While the team as a whole has been all over the map, this line has been pretty consistent.

Of course, I'm not really taking into account special teams performance, but I think if you can get your third line playing strong 5-5 hockey, that's at least a start. So I think the Flames can officially say they've made strides in correcting a couple of the problems that MG has been harping on for a while.

I believe the third problem MG has identified is slightly more complicated than the first. Firstly, I agree wholeheartedly that Conroy is not a first line hockey player. He's lost any finish he ever had, he's not playing physically, and all in all he's just not doing a lot of good out there. MG has suggested Matthew Lombardi take his spot on the first line, and Conroy replace Lombardi on the third. Firstly, we have to ask a couple of questions as to the effect this would have.

Would the first line become better?
It's undoubtedly true that the first line would be a better group with Conroy gone. However, even though Matthew Lombardi is eating up the competition, I feel his numbers are inflated because the level of competition he's been playing has been pretty low. Lombardi's QOC is -0.05, while Conroy's has been +0.09.

Would the third line become better?
Unlikely. While Matthew Lombardi is eating up his competition and using his speed and finish to put the puck in the net, Conroy has none of the above. Although his counting numbers have been terrible, his line as at least been keeping afloat. Put him with Nolan and Nystrom and the third line is unlikely to be very useful at anything. However, there is always the chance that lesser quality of linemates could be counterbalanced by the lesser competition and Conroy brings the 'A' game.

Will the better first line make up for the worse third line?
I think this is the most important question - will the increased GF/GA of the newly minted first line make up for the worse GF/GA of the third line? I don't know. I believe MG will tell you he believes the team will be better as a whole with this change. I'm not convinced - no matter how you rearrange a puzzle it's not going to be complete unless you have the right pieces - shuffling around the wrong pieces doesn't help.

I will say I'm up for the experiment though simply because I don't think there's much of anything to lose.

Is This the Best Flames Team Since '89, or the Worst?

I sometimes cannot honestly tell whether to laugh or cry when I watch the Flames, although I did a bit of both watching them at the Saddledome Thursday night vs. the Red Wings.

Whenever I watch games I like to think about the storylines going into the game and it usually helps me decide how I'm going to approach this blog. MG did a nice piece about game strategy in terms of line matchups, and I had the idea of writing a column comparing this edition of the Flames to the team that won it all in 1989 (not trying to tempt fate or anything.) I was also considering examining my claim from last year that the time to win is now - it's possible the Iginla-Regehr-Kipprusoff extention has changed that and we're back to being patient again. But as the game wore on I realized I have to ask what the hell is going on with this team...again.

As I just mentioned, MG wanted to look at the matchups - in the end, I don't think it really mattered. For one, every goal against was with a unique defensive group. Sarich and Ericksson on for 1st goal against, Phaneuf and Aucoin for the second, Ericksson and Warrener on the third, and Sarich and Regehr for the fourth. While there was no clear statistical trend, a couple defenceman stood out for all the wrong reasons.

Anders Ericksson played simply terrible on just about every shift. His positioning and decision making are horrendous and he was definately the Flames worst defenceman. The real suprise was how bad Robyn Regehr looked brutal. His +1 rating belied the fact he was often out of position and more often than not made bad outlet passes or simply couldn't handle the puck at all - he was Tony Amonte on defence.

Now, MG posists that (based on Desjardin's numbers which I don't fully understand) Phanuef is doing a better job at suppressing opposition scoring than Regehr. This is potentially true, but I also think there is a question of opponent quality. While Phaneuf is playing more minutes, Regehr's minutes more closely mirror the minutes of top players on the opposition, leading me to believe Keenan is trying to match Regehr with the opposition's best. Phaneuf is getting softer minutes which allows him to play longer and take advantage of his offensive instincts.

Up front, I often wondered (aloud) if Owen Nolan would ever win a puck race. Sure he drew a couple penalties, but he always looks like he's at a standstill out there. This was a guy that played for Team Canada in 2002 (although on the worst line with Lindros and Smyth). Does Nolan even have a purpose when out on the ice? Is there a reason shouldn't just sit him?

Mike Babcock got outcoached by MacTavish in 2006, but I don't think he's been outcoached since. Because of this, I don't think the matchups mattered much - Detroit simply outthought the Flames throughout the whole game. This looked like the 2007 playoffs all over again, with Detroit simply shutting down passing lanes and using their forecheck to cause turnovers. It doesn't help that the Flames basically do not have a defenceman capable of moving the puck, but it was a weakness that was certainly glaring on Thursday. And while hapless Flames fans intoned their team to 'at least hit somebody' Detroit moved the puck too well to let that happen. Except for the first 7 or so minutes in the first and 5 minutes in the third, the Flames were severly outclassed. Sure the Flames had a couple bad breaks in terms of posts or bounces, but this game was an illustration of the lack of consistency in the Flames game.

Is this the best Flames team since 89? Maybe on paper, but that's about it.

Owen Nolan

Was a superstar in his own right only a few years ago, until knee injuries (and allegedly arthritis) hampered his play. Also adding to his problem was his long (approximately 2 year) layoff. A source close to Nolan told me he thought Nolan would have a much better year and that there were some personal issues (some of which have already been mentioned in the press) as well as layoff effects that affected his play, but that all those problems are now gone.

Two Sides of Darryl

With yesterdays signing of free agent Owen Nolan, I couldn't help but think there are two sides to Darryl Sutter.

On the one hand, it's almost as if Darryl has some hypnotic power with his voice. I can only imagine him whispering in Iginla's ear, '$7 million dollars for 5 years is a good move for you.' He's managed to convince several guys to repeatedly take well under what they could've got on the free market. Iginla, Regehr, Kipprusoff. If this rumoured Regehr deal turns out to be true, Regehr will be making less money than Roman Hamrlik. Unbelievable.

On the other hand, Darryl has this penchant for going out and getting old end of the career type guys. Amonte. McCarty. Nolan.

If we could just somehow contain the latter Sutter the Flames would be unstoppable.

In regards to Owen Nolan, he might be a step up from Amonte. He might not be though. We'll see how his arthritis goes.