You Win Some, You Lose Some

A lot of thoughts keep running through my head after last night's game, they're scattered but I'll do my best.

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RudyKelly was pretty prophetic with his tirade against Thornton bashers. I partially agree with him; for some reason 'showing emotion' usually means losing composure, and that's not really a great leadership quality. Some guys lead by yelling and breaking teeth, some lead by playing smart hockey. I don't think there's one right way. Joe Thornton's play at the end of the game, domination along the boards leading to good puck possession and movement lead directly to the goal which he tipped in. He did it all. He can't be that good all the time, and it's unreasonable to have that expectation. IMO his linemates aren't that great and sometimes it's hard to soar with the eagles when you fly with turkeys.

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Calgary did just about everything right in the first period - scored a goal, kept the opposition chances to a minimum, played with speed. The 2nd and third period were different stories, despite tying San Jose in the 2nd, the Flames were starting to get overwhelmed. Craig Conroy takes yet another stupid penalty, the Sharks tie it up. The third was even worse - it was white knuckle hockey at it's best, or worst. The Shark's 2nd goal was a bit lucky, but one hell of a shot by Cheechoo.

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I commented to a co-worker today that the Flames 'almost won.' He said to me, the Flames didn't almost win, they almost didn't lose. Couldn't have said it better myself - on Sunday night after the Sharks started to see the Flames come back, they played to not lose. Same with the Flames last night.

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The little things played a big part in this game, here's a few plays that I couldn't help but notice.

1) Craig Conroy, offensive zone hook. That penalty lead to the Sharks first goal. I know the Flames pulled ahead soon after, but a goal is a goal. Some penalties are legit to take, some are just stupid. This was just stupid.

2) In the third period the puck slides through the Flames crease; Miikka Kipprusoff puts his glove on it and slides his glove across the crease as he is poked and prodded. Eventually he realizes the referees are not going to blow the whistle (who knows why) so he plays it behind the net. The Flames cannot regain control and are forced to take a penalty. The Sharks don't score, but that's an extra 2 minutes down a man that the Flames could have pressured San Jose and maybe created some chances.

3) Kristian Huselius goes in on a 3-1 with Iginla and Langkow. He messes up the pass to Iginla, but recovers behind the net and centers a pass to Langkow who proceeds to hit th post. Both Huselius and Langkow believed it was in (it wasn't) and stopped playing. That could have put the dagger in San Jose's heart. Score that and the Flames more than likely win the series. Miss and you give the Sharks a chance to get back into it. Flames missed, the Sharks get back into it.

4) With about a minute to go in the game Huselius ices the puck; Iginla almost beats it out but apparently does not. Keenan knows the players out on the ice are tired but decides not to call a time out. It's easy to say it was the right call now, but it really was the right call, especially the way the Flames were panicking. Another subtle mistake by Keenan, having Huselius out there with just over a minute to go. I can forgive the Phaneuf /Hale pairing becausee Keenan was probably hoping that they could come off and Sarich/Regehr (the appropriate last minute pairing) would come on; I mean, you do need to put SOMEONE on the ice, and Phaneuf and Hale are probably the second best defensively (I would certainly put them both ahead of Aucoin and Vandermeer) but it really was the difference. Phaneuf obviously couldn't handle Thornton, possibly because of fatigue, possibly due to lack of ability, but quite simply put, he couldn't get the job done.

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This was the second time the Sharks scored a last minute goal this series because of poor bench management.

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Still, I remain pleasantly suprised by the Flames overall competitiveness. Excuse me for predicting a couple losses in a row to finish off the season, but in general it hasn't been as excrutiating as last year.

Calgary Flames vs. San Jose Sharks - Game 3 Preview

Having not seen the final two periods of Thursday night's game I have to say I am pleasantly suprised by the way things are going. Miikka Kipprusoff is clearly on his game, as are Iginla and Phaneuf, and the Flames have been competitive for the first three periods of the first game, and at least the first period of the second game, and the Flames end up with a split.

Forget the massive shot differential - MG did a nice job of explaining at least some of it in game 1, and game 2 was a special teams nightmare. The only real concern of the massive shot totals is that it is possible it could eventually fatigue Kipprusoff, (something I am sure the Sharks coaching staff is counting on), but if Kipper was going to fatigue I would have thought it would have been in the first group of 76 games he played during the season, many of which the team hung him out to dry. The fact is, if Kipper plays the way he's playing, the Flames will be competitive in every game this series.

The thing I like most about this series so far is that it has no resemblance whatsoever to last year's first round ass pounding by Detroit. Simply put, the Flames were totally outmatched in the first two games, and although they won game 3 and 4, they probably shouldn't have.

That said, the Sharks are currently licking their chops waiting to face Calgary at the Saddledome. While their home record finished a respectable 22-13-6, their away record is 27-10-4. Only 10 regulation losses all season, that's pretty impressive. Calgary is better at home with a 21-11-9 home record and 21-19-1 away record. Calgary better be hoping they finish it off in regulation though, holy sweet jesus , 9 OT/SO losses at home.

Of course, the Flames number 1 goal for the game will be to avoid taking penalties. They did a great job in game one, but obviously game 2 got out of hand. The Iginla call was bullshit, but that's NO REASON for a team like the Flames, composed mostly of veterans, to totally lose their composure. This is supposed to be where Calgary has an advantage; bad calls are part of the game, they're going to happen, but you can't let it change the gameplan.

The fact that Calgary wasn't blown out is very encouraging, the fact that they had several quality chances to put themselves back into the game was even more encouraging. Nabokov obviously played very well in game 2, but I am sure having an approximately 10 minute break helped keep the offensive chances down for the Flames.

Something to keep an eye on tonight is the matchups; The Flames have two ES goals while the Sharks have three ES goals. Not exactly a clear indication of who was winning the matchup war, however I will say a +1 advantage over two games isn't exactly convincing.

Game 3 starts tonight at the Saddledome, 8:00MST.

A Few Final Ramblings Before the Series Begins

You know, I really wanted to go through and evaluate a few things in depth before this series began, but I've really been beaten to the punch. Nevertheless, I had a few things I wanted to get off my chest that haven't really been covered by others, and I've still got 2 or so hours before gametime, so why the hell not?

Despite the fact I believe the Flames will lose this series, I think it certainly has the potential to be a lot closer than a skimming of the statistics would indicate. I think Matt did a terrific job of coming up with reasons to pick the Flames (link above), but I have a couple more (continuing his list of 7).
8. Miikka Kiprusoff - You can show Evgeni Nabokov's stats from this year until your head explodes, but one outstanding season from Nabokov and one 'off' season from Kipprusoff does not make them equal goalies. As Matt mentioned, San Jose were the 'team to beat' in 2004, 2006, etc. but Nabokov got outplayed in 2004, and he was totally pulled in 2006. For my money I'll take Kiprusoff any day of the week. He'll need to be at his best, but in my opinion he's the better goaltender, and goaltending IS the playoffs.

9. Patrick Marleau - In my opinion, as long as this guy is the Sharks captain, they will not win. That's not to say Marleau isn't a good player, but some guys are simply not meant to be captains. Theoren Fleury wasn't a captain, Mike Modano wasn't a captain, and judging by Marleau's big game disappearing act, he isn't a captain either. He was given multiple opportunities to play for Team Canada and always brought forth his worst effort, in last year's playoffs against Detroit he completely disappeared. Leadership matters, and it could be the difference.

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Another thing I haven't seen anyone talk about is coaching, which to me sort of matters. Who has the edge? Well Mike Keenan hasn't coached a playoff game since 1995- 1996 season (St. Louis Blues) but he does have a Stanley Cup (Rangers, 93-94) under his belt (and multiple appearances in the finals, Flyers 84-85, 86-87, Chicago 91-92) with a 92-79 record.

Ron Wilson made it to the finals once (Washington, 97-98), and the conference finals once (San Jose 03-04...well we all know that one).

One interesting thing about both these coaches is that both of them have highly significant victories for their respective countries in the international stage.

Keenan of course won the 1987 Canada Cup, considered by some to be the greatest hockey ever played. Gretzky, Lemieux, Messier, Coffey, Fuhr, Larionov, Makarov, Fetisov all in their prime. By today's standards the hockey is a bit unsophisticated, but the talent involved is indisputable.

Ron Wilson won the re-organized Canada Cup, renamed the World Cup, for Team USA in 1996, probably a more significant victory in USA Hockey history than the miracle on ice, if only for the fact it was a best on best tournament and it was a best of three. Any team can beat any team once, but to Team USA to beat Team Canada in a best of three in dramatic fashion certainly speaks to Wilson's credibility.

Based on record alone Keenan probably has the edge, but his last playoff victory came over 10 years ago. That could play in as an edge in desire, or disadvantage in terms of modern day experience.

The other thing is, and I don't know how relevant this is, I was told today by someone who is a San Jose Sharks locker room regular that he has never seen this team so calm and loose. He told me the whole team as of yesterday is cracking jokes, keeping it light, they don't seem pressured at all. He told me Anaheim looked the same way last year.

Anyway, I guess the gist of this post is that while the Flames will most likely lose, the definately have a chance. Sometimes that's all you can ask for.

Jason and the Senators

About a year and a half ago the primary debate in Canadian hockey circles revolved around the 2006 Team Canada Turin selections. I was personally a little distressed when Gretzky and Co started talking about 'loyalty' and 'past performances,' and 'age,' the exact opposite sort of logic that was credited with Canada's gold medal performance in Salt Lake. The 'best players at the time' logic.

The age clause is probably the one that bothered me the most. At the time two young kids in particular were tearing it up: Eric Staal in Carolina, and Jason Spezza in Ottawa. Both players had been pegged to be superstars for a long time; I think Staal's success was probably a bigger suprise simply because Carolina looked like they would be so bad, but either way, both were being considered for the team.

Ottawa was tearing up the league when they came to play Calgary in mid season. At the time it was a great matchup: Ottawa's stunning 'new NHL' offense vs Calgary's olds chool defensive stylings.

Now if you have read this blog to any extent, you'll know of my passion for Team Canada. You'll also know there are a lot of players I simply believe in, they have that 'je ne sais quoi,' and Jason Spezza is one of those guys for me. I've watched him play since he was 16 years old, Don Cherry has hyped the guy (Spezza played for Cherry's Ice Dogs for a while) and the way he plays just screams 'winner.' I always thought he looked good in the playoffs, and I've picked him in my pool in every year he's played - this includes the year he was called up. I always thought Spezza looked really good in his first few playoff games. Most of the time he only played about 7-9 minutes a night and he was at least moderately productive.

Jacque Martin, for whatever reason, never seemed to believe in Spezza. The general criticism was that Spezza was a defensive liability. I think a quick look at his stats tells a different story-Spezza's been about a +22 player in every season since his rookie - and if you tell me it's because he has great linemates, then I'll tell you he's had a lot of different linemates over four years - including a full lockout year in Binghamton. He's been all minus in the playoffs except for his rookie year - but what Senator is the exception to that rule?

Looking back that Sens/Flames meeting at the 'Dome, it was a perfect opportunity to put my love of both Spezza and Team Canada to use. I left for the game early enough to catch warmup and brought this sign:
Anyway, got down to the front row on the Sens warmup side. Fisher seemed to notice it first, skating around in the warmup, it was obvious he was reading the sign. A couple of times Spezza came around and quickly checked it, finally he smiled and gave a little nod. The sign was briefly shown on CBC (about two frames briefly) but it was pretty much illegible I guess Gretz didn't catch it, because Spezza never was named to team Canada. Perhaps it was due to injury concerns, or perhaps it was due to age, or perhaps it was due to Spezza's supposed defensive liability concerns. Either way, it was probably a bad call (although that team didn't lose due to lack of talent). Spezza went on to finish the season with 90 points in 68 games, and was the best Senator in the playoffs.

The Flames went on to win the game 2-1 in an OT comeback, spurred on from a Donovan to Amonte goal in the third. It was maybe the best game the Flames played all season, beating the Senators at the top of their game.

This year, Spezza tore up the league in the same way during the regular season, but his Senators went through much more of an early season test. While they blew through the league last year, there were all sorts of questions in the early goings this year. Now in the playoffs, Spezza's Sens have learned from their hard times, and Spezza has personally gone from a minus to a plus. His 20pts is 2nd in the league, only to his starboard sniper Dany Heatly.

Many are attributing the Senators post-season success to Daniel Alfredsson's playoff emergence, I think it's simply the only logical evolution to a team that will one day belong to Spezza.

Calgary Flames vs. Detroit Red Wings - Red Wings win Series 4-2

Well, I think first and foremost, you have to hand it to the Red Wings for their execution of their gameplan. I would say in every aspect of the game, they for the most part had their way with the Calgary Flames. 3 of the 4 lines were constant scoring threats and just general pains in the asses to play against. It's a bit of a lark to call the Cleary - Draper - Maltby line a '3rd line' because they were a true two-way force and arguably made the difference in the series. MVP for Detroit might have to go to Danny Cleary, I would say he was their best all around player in the series.

Mike Babcock in particular deserves kudos for imposing his will upon the Calgary Flames. If you want any more proof of the superiority of his in game systems (compared to Playfair's joke of a system) then simply look at the shots on net. While Calgary managed 129 shots in 6 games, Detroit managed to put 255 shots on Miikka Kipprusoff and Co. I think if you looked at possession times or in zone times, the results would be just as overwhelming.

I know this isn't really a coaching stat, but if I could find face % I think Detroit would show their domination once again.

All in all, Calgary's 'team game' came down to one thing: relying on the heroics of Kipprusoff. Otherwise, this wouldn't have even been a series, it would have been a Germany on France blitzkreig.

The good news for Calgary? Well, I would bet Amonte's done with the team. Same goes for McCarty who actually dressed for the warm up. Most importantly: I think Playfair got his chance, and he showed how embarresingly antiquated his coaching techniques were. Someone suggested to me he might 'step down/resign' to save face, but I just hope he's gone. Can I get an amen?

When it rains...

Well, not only did the Flames get blown out today, but Sidney Crosby officially declined to play for Team Canada at the 2007 IIHF World Hockey Championship. Incredibly disappointing for the team, but also understandable.

Remember how badly Dion Phaneuf played with a broken foot against Anaheim in the 2006 Stanley Cup playoffs. Remember how badly Chris Pronger played with a broken foot in the 2006 Olympics in Turin/Torino?

Sidney Crosby was arguably the best player on the ice for BOTH teams in that series.

Dear lord, imagine him healthy.

He will be sorely missed by Team Canada, but as expected, Jordan Staal has accepted the invitation and will join his brother Eric. I'm not sure how well he could handle added ice time, but I wouldn't mind seeing the two play together on a regular shift. Interestingly enough, the last time Canada iced a brother tandem (Rob and Scott Neidermeyer) they won Gold (2004).

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To give the Flames credit, they didn't get totally embarressed in the first period. They kept the game tight and could just as easily have gone into the intermission ahead as tied (or behind as well). But give full marks to a Detroit team that simply elevated their game.

Hell, props to Danny Cleary for getting back up. A hell of a game for the newfie (I say that term with affection for all my newf readers), and actually, a hell of a series for the guy. He's made an impact in every game so far, and his contributions may end up being the difference in the series.

Regarding Calgary's goonery. Well, I wholehartedly support it. I know I may be a dinosaur in terms of my opinion, but sometimes a team just has to do things like that. It's something that happens in every level of hockey, and it is not 'suprising' as my boy Pierre and the other NBC commentators tried to sell it.

It was interesting comparing the coverage of the game from the NBC crew (selling it primarily to Detroit fans and an American public thats pretty ignorant) and the CBC crew (selling it to primarily a Calgary crowd). The NBC crew tried to downplay the violence as dispicable, dire, and unmotivated by Detroit. The CBC crew tried to sell it as having utility and perhaps being a necessary evil. Of course, which side you agree with will probably depend on which team you cheer for.

Just a couple thoughts on the various incidents though:

Daymond Langkow - Good for you. I thought the hit you took was by far the most intentionally dirty play of the series, and perhaps post season (Burrows slash aside). You weren't near the puck, weren't expecting a hit, and definatley weren't expecting to get clipped on the knees. The irony is that your little sucker punch didn't do nearly as much damage as the boards did to the Detroit player's knee. That looked bad.

Jarome Iginla - Pierre asked what you were doing killing off a 5-3 with only a couple minutes to go, but I knew. You were there to start shit, and you did. I have no doubt that you gave Schneider a bit of a butt end, but it was a love tap. And yes, you deserved a penalty for that AND the crosscheck, but lets face it, the physics of that crosscheck were all wrong for him to fall that way. Another embellishment, but thats ok, you had to do what you had to do, and he had to do what he had to do.

Jamie McLennan - what more can be said? Obviously you were told to go raise some hell, I think you were trying to create room for Kipper, and quite honestly, I thought you gave Franzen a love tap. I saw Smytty get a real two hander from Turco to the FACE and he got two games, so either he got a severe underpunishment or you got an overpunishment. It really doesn't matter either way because you did your job and I'm sure the team is proud of you. Oh, and Don Cherry and the rest of Canada saw you take the jab to the neck which was a cheap shot too, so we know you were at least moderately provoked.

Marcus Nilson - well Pierre said you were unprovoked when you went after Drapes but we all saw the flying elbow he threw at you and missed, so I totally understand what you were doing. Hell, I would have done the same.

Other notes:
Kristian Huselius - your hands have turned to stone at the worst possible time.
Alex Tanguay - could you PLEASE stop taking offensive zone penalties? It's really a problem.
Rhett Warrener - hang on buddy, I hear your new hip is coming in soon!

Calgary Flames vs. Detroit Red Wings Game 3 Post Game

Just overall a wierd time at the 'Dome. The place was rocking 10 minutes before puck drop, and it was a lot more raucus then I thought it would be. I don't know if the TV michs picked it up, but the speakers (I assume) went crazy in the third and started emitting a very low frequency pulse; it sounded like there were several helicopters circling the building. Eventually the speakers started making a ringing sound, as if it was a fire alarm. These wierd sounds lasted at least 10 minutes, and I must say, they really added to the tension in the game. To tell you the truth, I didn't think Calgary had what it took to come back. Dion looked hurt, the Flames looked dejected. For the Red Wing readers, THAT was the good Flames that had (have?) at least a chance to win the series.

For the rest of the game story, just read this post of mine. Looks like all of us got our wish. Apologies to any of the Flames blogs I missed who may have mentioned it.

Blood From a Stone

You know, I'm grasping at straws here, but the one positive that can be pulled from that 'game' (game in quotation marks, because is it really a game if only one team shows up? Technically a forfeit isn't it?) is that the Flames can no longer look themself in the mirror and give some extraneous excuse to losing.

Mick was up to his old tricks, but it thankfully didn't have any real bareing on the game.

The Flames can't argue it was bounces, even though there were a couple lucky ones that went Detroit's way.

No, simply put, the Flames got brutally outplayed. MG, DD and Duncan have already covered it, but that game was just overall a terrible effort - to all the relatively new Detroit readers: we told you there were two Calgary teams, and you just got a taste of the version of the Flames that never learned to read. I'll have more to say before next game.

Oh, and if any readers get some bad headlines, feel free to post them in the comments so we can all gaze upon the copy editor's sheer laziness.

Bad Headlines & other misc

Before the Flames games start, I'm just going to declare how much I hate the playoffs, or more specifically, playoff headlines. They're just so stupid, and they come up every year for every series. For instance, the Flames/Wings series has a lot of opportunity for stupid puns. Calgary newspapers will declare things like 'Flames cook Hot Wings!' or 'Red Wings Soar over Flames' or stupid shit like that.

In the Flames/Ducks and Oilers/Ducks last year there was a lot of stupid crap like 'Time for Duck Soup!' or 'Duck Hunting!' or the like.

Now it sounds like the Wings have some stupid thing called the Red Wave which is some sort of colour scheme akin to the 'C of Red' (which I actually find quite clever actually). Honestly, it's pathetic the way teams are trying to copy traditions like the 'white-out' in Vancouver and the 'C of red' in Calgary with crappy marketing driven traditions. And this so called 'wave' will probably end up looking bad anyway, as sell outs in Detroit are not even close to a guarantee.

Anyway, just some pre-post game day headline ranting.

Ok, this just in from Open Ice Hits, Mick is reffing tonight's game. For god's sake. DAMN YOU SCARLETT!

Calgary Flames vs. Detroit Red Wings - Pre Series Analysis final

Unsung Heroes – to preface this section, I wanted to take into account guys that do a really nice job every night but in general aren’t taken into consideration the same way guys like Iginla or Lidstrom might be. These are the ‘Fernando Pisanis’ of the playoffs, or at least, the potential ones.

Calgary

David Moss – first and foremost among the Calgary group. Everyone in Calgary likes Moss, but I don’t think they realize how consistent he is. He’s a 3^rd line guy, but his garbage game plays really nice with Huselius and Langkow, and maybe more than anyone else on Calgary, plays a ‘playoff style’ game all year round.

Mark Giordano – Marc has been in and out of the Calgary lineup this year, but he really should be a regular. Remember ‘The Doors’ combo of Montador and Commodore of ’04? This guy could have the same type of impact, and you cannot overestimate the importance of having a reliable 3^rd pairing defensive guy. Especially one that teases you with his two-way play.

Matthew Lombardi – Everyone knows Lombardi has had a decent year, but it seems as if he’s a constant whipping boy for the coaching staff (note his benching for one off game). In fact, Matthew has been one of Calgary’s most consistent guys this year. He creates a lot of chances single handily and has the potential to break a game wide open with his speed.

Robyn Regehr – While Dion Phanuef and Brad Stuart grab the headlines, Regehr puts his head down and quietly dominates. Robyn has been taken to task for his play this year, but the fact remains Robyn managed to amass the team’s most impressive +/- (+27) playing with a slew of under performing partners. He’s always willing to finish his checks, and last year he saved his top offensive performances for the playoffs.

Detroit

Tomas Holmstrom – Sure, he’s heralded, but right now he’s playing at least 4^th or 5^th fiddle behind Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Bertuzzi, Hasek, and maybe even Lang. Holmstrom just keeps doing what he does, over and over and over. 1^st or 2^nd in the league in terms of skill in front of the net.

Kris Draper – I think Drapes is just one of those guys, like Stephane Yelle, that has been around for so long people forget the level at which he can (or is capable of) contribute. He hasn’t yet matched his 24 goal year of a few, but his penalty killing ability, his speed, and his tenacity make him a constant threat.

Johan Franzen – although I confess I don’t know a lot about this guy, they really seem to like him over at Abel to Yzerman. Something to the effect of, if you don’t know his name now, you will by the end of the series.

Dan Cleary – As I mentioned before, Cleary was a nice rescue operation for Detroit. He has a lot of skill, and Detroit has the type of depth that the pressure on Cleary is somewhat minimal. He’ll be going up against soft D-pairings at times, so his secondary (or tertiary) scoring ability could be the difference in this series.

Edge: Even

It’s a pretty even contest here, as I like all the guys I mentioned. The main difference between the two groups is that from Calgary there are a lot of younger guys who we don’t really know what we’re going to see from. From Detroit, we can probably guess pretty accurately what we’ll see from the players mentioned, and what we’ll see is very good, but maybe only slightly above average play. I think the guys from Calgary could have a higher top end.

Conclusion

It’s a bit of a shame I couldn’t get into the special teams analysis, or get to some other intangibles like home vs. away advantages, but there just aren’t enough hours in the day for me to get it all done.

When all is said and done, this series is going to depend mostly on which Calgary team shows up. Detroit has been very consistent, we know what Detroit we’ll see, and they’re a very good team. But in my opinion, when Calgary gets its motor going, there aren’t a lot of teams that can hang with them. Unfortunately for Flames fans, Calgary rarely gets its motor going. Sometimes though the playoffs really are a new season, and this could be just the motivation Calgary needs to play at their peak.

Calgary Flames vs. Detroit Red Wings - Pre Series Analysis cont

Forwards
Calgary
For the first time since Doug Gilmour, Joe Nieuwendyk, Gary Roberts, Theo Fleury and Lanny MacDonald played together, the forward group is Calgary's true strong point. From top to bottom, Calgary only has one or two real weaknesses (which I will get to later) while they have many many strengths. On the top line, Jarome Iginla is on his best PP/G season, and in my opinion, is playing the most effective hockey of his career. With him is his best buddy Craig Conroy, who has been somewhat of a revelation since he returned from La La Land. He's been very steady (that gaffe in SJ aside) and is on a near point a game pace. On the other side is the sublime Alex Tanguay, who reminds me a lot of Ales Hemsky. Sometimes you want to scream at him to shoot the puck, but most of the time he's just making really superb offensive decisions. Tanguay's biggest problem is that he's a bit prone to taking bad penalties, so the first year Flame will have to stay disciplined.

On the second line we have Daymond Langkow at centre. While early on in the year Daymond couldn't score to save his life, he came alive in November and continued on a torrid pace until now, netting 33 in the process. His winger is Kristian Huselius who is arguably the best puckhandler and pure goal scorer in the NHL (19.65 shooting percentage). Watching him is dizzying - he single handidly runs Calgary's PP, freezing opposition players with his moves and then drilling the puck in. MG mentions Huselius' PP prowess in his pre-series analysis as well, and I think it's a point the Detroit coaches will need to take home to shut down Calgary. The third member of this potent second line has varied from Matthew Lombardi to David Moss. They both play nice complimentary roles: Lombardi provides the line with top notch speed and a devastating forecheck, while David Moss is a true grinder. He goes into the ugly areas to get the puck and he loves scoring the ugly goal.

Calgary's third line has come alive in the last 10 games. Defensive specialists Stephane Yelle (king of blocking shots) and Marcus Nilson (who Calgary sorely missed in last year's playoffs) have been paired with Jeff Friesen or Tony Amonte. It's hard to say who has been the bigger disappointment for Calgary, but have had very low expectations, and both have actually played below expectations. But for whatever reason, Jeff Friesen's play has been steadily improving since late December-early January, and now is a positive force on the team. Tony Amonte is probably Calgary's worst player - he's mediocre defensively and he's lost any touch he ever had around the net. A friend of mine has coined a statistic that applies only to Amonte - SAG (shots at goal). This refers to the fact Amonte almost always misses the net.

Calgary's fourth line is a bit of a jumble right now. Wayne Primeau has been the oft-centreman of this line, and his physicality is something this team sorely needs up front. He's been joined by a bunch of wingers: Tony Amonte (spoken about already) whose true place IS on the 4th line, Byron Ritchie, who has had a very respectable season and who probably deserves more ice time (but who many speculate is hurt). Darren McCarty, the former Red Wing (and Wing fan favourite) has been hurt with a 'groin' problem for most of the season, but last year saved his best for the playoffs. He appears to be ready to go and could be a nice energy guy on this line. Eric Godard is Calgary's enforcer, and while he has limited hockey skills, he KO'd Derek Booguard, and if utilized will keep Detroit's players guessing.

In terms of weaknesses, Calgary has two, both of which I have touched upon already. Tony Amonte is one, and Calgary's best chance is to hide him on the 4th line. Calgary's lack of physical forwards is #2. While Primeau has been consistent, the rest of the Calgary forwards have been pretty much MIA. If Calgary is to beat Detroit, this trend must be reversed. Jarome has to throw his weight around, same goes for Langkow and Moss. The third line doesn't have to hit, but they must pester. Finally, Darren McCarty and Wayne Primeau can only play one way to be effective, and that way is physical.

Detroit
I can't analyze the Detroit forward with the same depth as the Flames forwards simply because I'm not as familiar with them. However, there are some key players who I think will be difference makers in the series. This list starts first and foremost with Henrik Zetterberg. In my opinion he was the most consistent Red Wing in the playoffs last year, he lead the team in goals this year and will have to be a top 3 player for Detroit to win. His health is questionable though, and although it sounds as if he will start on Thursday, one has to wonder if he is truly game shape ready. Second on the list is Pavel Datsyuk, the best regular season player Detroit has. I say regular season for the well publicized fact that Datsyuk has so far not been able to keep his game together in the playoffs. He has the reputation of being soft, and if Detroit is going to win this series, Datsyuk must be a positive factor.

On the second line, Robert Lang only had a so so season, and Todd Bertuzzi has been shuttled in to help get that second line going. Whether you love or hate Bertuzzi, he has been a Flame killer in the past. There have been many a game against Vancouver in the past that Bertuzzi has used to mesmorize Flames defence with his strength and puck handling skills and almost singlehandidly beat us. Bertuzzi's health is a question mark as well though, and although he won't be expected to carry the team as he was in Vancouver, every game that he doesn't perform he will be put even further under the microscope. The pressure could definately get to him. As always, Tomas Holmstrom will be standing in front of Kipper tipping pucks past him. He will score in this series, its only a matter of time.

When Daniel (Danny) Cleary played for Edmonton my friends and I would joke that he would only get going if the stadium music guy played some Celtic jig music, but the fact is that Cleary has been a nice little rescue project for the Red Wings. His second half has been extremely mediocre, but he could provide some secondary scoring for Detroit in this series. Kyle Calder has had a statistically terrible season, but he looked alright last year in the World Championships. I wouldn't expect a lot out of him though.

Of course we are going to see Maltby pestering anyone he can get his hands on, his stickwork matched only by his mouth. As always Kris Draper will be killing penalties, dishing out hits, and occasionally, scoring.

A couple of notables that are question marks to me are Mikael Samuelsson who got off to a roaring start last season but has cooled off considerably since, and Johan Franzen, a guy who Detroit blogs have been raving about.

Edge: Calgary
The Flames in my opinion have more depth and more proven guys, including the best forward in the series: Jarome Iginla. The Red Wings, although potentially very dangerous, have a lot of question marks. If those question marks are answered, Detroit could regain the edge.

Calgary Flames vs. Detroit Red Wings - Pre Series Analysis cont.

Coaching
Flames

I'll keep this short and sweet. Regulars to this blog know I'm not a Playfair fan. I think he's been unable to recognize and utilize this team's strengths, I think he's made very questionable personelle decisions (Amonte ice time, Giordano scratching, etc) and he hasn't seemed to be able to motivate the troops. While I think motivating players shouldn't be a job left up to the coaches (good players are self motivated), it seems odd that every time Darryl Sutter makes a dressing room appearance the whole team seems to snap out of their funk and play well. It says to me that Playfair is missing something Sutter has. I'm honestly not really sure Playfair has any particular strengths, although whether due to Playfair or not, the Flames had a great PP in the regular season.

Detroit

Just as regular readers know I'm not a Playfair fan, they also know I am a true Babcock fan. I love his demeanor (when asked about his PP after a game last season, which had failed to convert that game, he remarked: (paraphrased) "The PP? Oh ya, what are we ranked in the league? Number 1? Thanks, next question." He guided the Ducks to within a couple goals of the Stanley Cup. If you say he rode Giguere's tail, I say he identified his team's strength and exploited it. He has won Gold medals coaching Team Canada in 1997 and 2004. He has found a way to keep this team winning despite breaking in newer players and dealing with older ones. I will say though, Babcock got outcoached by Craig MacTavish in the first round last year.

Edge: Detroit

Babcock has more experience, has his team playing more consistent, and his team plays a style that compliments their strengths. We'll have to see if Playfair has any tricks under his sleeve, because regular season aside, he'll be remembered a lot more favourably if he can win a playoff round.

next up: Forwards, unsung heroes

Calgary Flames vs. Detroit Red Wings - Pre Series Analysis cont.

Defence
Calgary

The last time the Flames faced Detroit in the playoffs, it was their defensive group that was their strongpoint. Not so anymore. Their are mighty holes in this group, despite their 'brand name' and high draft pick status. Andrei Zyuzin is incredibly inconsistent, even if his play has improved lately, Rhett Warrener, although a tremendous leader, has simply seemed too injured this season to make a difference. Brad Stuart, although physical, seems unable to pick his spots effectively, and his offensive side was highly overrated. Dion Phaneuf has been inconsistent this year, and his biggest weak point has been his defensive zone positioning. I still believe our brightest spots have been the emergence of Marc Giordano as a legitimate two way threat, David Hale as an unheralded defensive stalwart (although small sample of games played), and Robyn Regehr who I think has played very well considering the partners he's been given. Roman Hamrlik has shown he can either be very good or very bad.

That said, I fully expect Dion to explode in the playoffs. His pedegree is that of a big game player, and I was very relieved post playoffs last season to find out he was hobbled by a broken foot. Even Chris Pronger looked bad with a broken foot. Warrener I think will fall into this category. He's been hobbled all year but I suspect he won't play hobbled in the playoffs, I think he'll find a way to be better. Robyn Regehr has consistently saved his best for the playoffs (and other big games, ie World Cup).

Detroit

Detroit has the best overall defenceman of this series in Nick Lidstrom. He has been the pillar of consistency in all 3 zones his whole career, and he was arguably the best player for Detroit last year. Mathieu Schneider has got some very good offensive chops, and I think he's improved his overall defensive play since he got to Detroit. Danny Markov has shown he can dish out the big hit (Jarret Stoll anyone?). Detroit's last top 4 guy, Niklas Kronwall (pronounced Kronvall), at one point hailed as a 'mini-Lidstrom' guy, is out for the conceivable future, and that puts a big hole in the top 4. Detroit has a couple of options to go with to fill that hole, but judging from TOI, they've decided to go with their own (older and less injury prone) version of Rhett Warrener: Chris Chelios. I think this is a huge hole in Detroit's defence. While fans rave about Chelios' longevity, the fact is he is not very effective anymore. He gets beaten on the outside more often than a top 4 guy should, and the rest of his game is pretty basic at best. Although he scored a goal against Edmonton in the playoffs last year, his biggest contribution was diving at every chance he got. Andreas Lilja and Brett Lebda round out the top 6, and they both play about 15 minutes/game. Lebda in particular has made pretty good use of his ice time, garnering a +16 (3rd on the defence) and 18 pts.

Edge: Detroit

There is a caveat I must put in with my decision, and that is: it depends on a)which defensive group the Flames ice, and b)if the Flames defensive group deals out a liberal serving of physicality. If the Flames are willing to play Giordano and Hale in place of Zyuzin or an injured Warrener, it could make a huge difference. Those two in particular play a nice complimentary role to eachother, and they're both easily capable of 15 minutes/night. In addition, I think top to bottom the Flames defence CAN be more physical. We haven't seen a lot of it this year, but Brad Stuart is pretty consistent, Regehr loves to finish behind the net, Hamrlik can play it tough, Warrener put out Fedoruk last year with a massive hipcheck, and Dion, well, Dion is Dion.

The Wings on the other hand, get an added boost from a superior defensive puck posession system. Their biggest advantage may come from the fact Robyn Regehr is questionable for game 1, and even if he plays, he's probably going to be playing hurt.

Still up: Forwards, coaching, unsung heroes,

Un-F'in-Believable

A list of officials who made the playoffs:

Referees:

Paul Devorski
Eric Furlatt
Mike Hasenfratz
Dave Jackson
Marc Joannette
Don Koharski
Dennis LaRue
Mike Leggo
Dan Marouelli
Wes McCauley
Bill McCreary
Mick McGeough
Dan O'Halloran
Dan O'Rourke
Tim Peel
Kevin Pollock
Rob Shick
Kelly Sutherland
Don Van Massenhoven
Brad Watson

Linesemen:

Derek Amell
Steve Barton
Lonnie Cameron
Pierre Champoux
Mike Cvik
Greg Devorski
Scott Driscoll
Shane Heyer
Brad Kovachik
Brad Lazarowich
Steve Miller
Jean Morin
Brian Murphy
Derek Nanson
Thor Nelson
Tim Nowak
Pierre Racicot
Dan Schachte
Jay Sharrers
Mark Wheler

(Source)

May the gods of hockey have mercy on whatever series that man presides over.