Sam Gagner

It's hard to be anything but positive when talking about Sam Gagner. I liked him the first time I saw him, well before he was on the radar of most Oiler fans, and he hasn't failed to impress since. Beat the odds to make the team one year ago and did enough during that 11 game tryout period to make himself stick throughout the rest of the year.

What sorts of skills does Gagner have? Reads the play well, great positioning instincts, above average hands. What type of skills doesn't he have? Well, you're not going to see Gagner dominate with his physicality, he's certainly not blazingly fast (although he is quick) and he's probably not going to be given a lot of defence first assignments by his coach.

Before I get into the desjardins numbers, I just want to make the note that Gagner did just about as well as can be expected as an 18 year old in the NHL.

The most obvious thing we can take note of here is that Gagner played with pretty much the best linemates on the team and also against some of the softest competition. With that in mind, I think it's fair to say that if he treads water in terms of his counting numbers this year we can call it a win. With the departure of both Marty Reasoner and Jarret Stoll, both of whom were carrying the heaviest loads competition wise, I think it's fair to expect Gagner will have to face tougher competition, at least some of the time.

His offensive categories were relatively pedestrian although that had mostly to do with his lack of goals - making great passes is definitely is definitely his strength.

Finally, one more note - MacT was playing Gagner 4th most of all forwards- the coach has confidence in his rookie, no?

Projection: 2nd line
Key Stat: 1st in quality of teammates

Team Canada World Hockey Championships: The Dream Team

Some more roster announcements today (some last night) from Hockey Canada; Edmonton Oilers' players Mathieu Garon and Sam Gagner were both announced as extras (Garon as the 3rd goalie and Sam Gagner as the 14th forward), a surprise to myself as I initially had them on the team, and when they weren't announced with Staios' addition I assumed they missed their chance. Nice to see both guys go, especially as an Oiler fan.

Now, also named were a couple of guys I hoped would stay home (damn their patriotism!) Both Dany Heatley and Jason Spezza were named to the team, and despite their embarrassing playoff performances, I truly hope they make me look like a fool for counting them out. Heatley has been very disappointing in recent team Canada outings (World Cup 2004, Turin 2006) but he has been absolutely terrific for Team Canada in the World Championships. His 2004 World Championship performance was particularly dominating, leading the tournament in goals and points, and winning tournament MVP en route to a gold medal.

Right now a concern of mine is ice time distribution. Who is the top line? This roster bosts Nash, Doan, St. Louis, Staal, Spezza, Heatley, Roy, and Getzlaf. Oh, and Jonathan Toews. Who is the 3rd line? What is everyone's role? I still feel the mentality of rolling 4 lines without any real roles was a massive issue in 2006 because all those players are used to 20+ minutes a game. This could become a real issue as the tournament roles on. A nice problem to have I guess, but a potential problem nonetheless. Is this a playoff roster, or an all star game roster?

As expected, Brett Burns and Dan Hamhuis were named to the team, as well as surprise addition Ed Jovanovski. Jovanovski is a guy who when he is on, he is ON. I feel that he's represented Canada very well and that he was missed in 2006, good on him for going. Flames fans should be very excited to see familiar face Mark Giordano was added as the 'extra' defenceman, (boy, glad we got rid of that loser!)

This makes for 6 defenceman, so I would expect one more will be named. I still would not be surprised to see Robyn Regehr, and his naming could be delayed as he undergoes physicals or mulls over the decision. Dion Phaneuf has turned the team down and that's ok because he's probably distracted with other things. I would be too.

Rounding out the group being named are Ryan Getzlaf and Chris Kunitz. I expect Kunitz will center Chimera and Meyers while Getlzaf will play on one of the top two lnes.

One thing I'll say about this team; It's probably the deepest and most talented group I've ever seen go over, that includes the 2005 edition with all the locked out NHLers. The defence is a bit unknown and a bit young, but on paper this is a hell of a team.

Doan - Staal - Nash
St. Louis - Spezza - Heatley
Chimera - Kunitz - Meyers
Toews - Roy - Whitney
Sharp
(Gagner)

Bouwmeester - Jovanovski
Hamhuis - Keith
Staios - Burns
(Giordano)

Ward
Leclaire
Garon

(mini update: There are some reports going around that Whitney has an ankle injury, so that might sort out the 13th forward issue we're seeing right now).

update #2 Friday 25 8:40am: Robyn Regehr will not be attending the IIHF World Championships. I'm 90% sure he wasn't even asked, which IMO is a massive oversight by team Canada. For shame.

update #3: Mike Green from the Washington Capitals has been added. I think a good choice, more than anything Green will be there for the PP and occasional even strength spot duty. He lead all defenceman in scoring this year with 18 goals.

Hammer to Fall

What the hell we fighting for?
Just surrender and it won't hurt at all
You just got time to say your prayers
While your waiting for the hammer to hammer to fall

Now, I'm stealing my introductory statement from the LT style of writing, and I can only say that this imitation is simply the most sincerest form of flattery. However, watching the Oilers climb the standings and put on what can only be described as a unbelievable performance, I keep thinking back to Queen's lyrics.

Now, don't get me wrong, the Oilers have truly suprised me, and my end of season predictions have been a complete bust. By any measure made at the beginning of the season, I think I can classify this run as making this season a success and keeping it really entertaining, especially compared to last year's sucksplosion.

Still though, I just can't help but wait for the Hammer to Fall. I think this whole thing is just one big playoff dink tease, as CIO so succinctly put it.

Now, unbelievably, the path to the playoffs is actually within the Oiler's hands, their last 8 games are against divisional opponents. Running the table on even one of those teams might be enough to make the playoffs. Unfortunately the Oilers divisional record almost completely accounts for the current separation between the Oilers and the rest of the NW division playoff hopefuls. The Oilers' 9-13-2 divisional record pales in comparison to Colorado's division best 15-8-1. Every other opponent is at least 3 games over .500.

Now, the Oilers are probably most likely to tank these next 8 games, and if so, well, that's just life. This team shouldn't even be competing in the race, let alone challenging for a podium finish. This is like the Jamaican freakin bobsled team in 1988. But like LT has said, it seems like this team is too young or ignorant to realize they're supposed to lose.

Hey, at worst, this season ends up like the last 6-7 preceding it besides 05-06. Regular season suckage followed by a very late season playoff push that ends up just short or just past success. I think most smart fans would have been pretty satisfied if at the beginning of the season someone had offered them 8 games left in the season all against divisional opponents with a 5 pt playoff separation.

Not only that, but this season, and it's been harped on in most of the Oilogosphere, has had a lot of suprise positives. Sam Gagner has been far more effective this season than I would have ever expected, Andrew Cogliano has got more of a scoring touch than I ever would have given him credit for, Robert Nilsson is looking like a legitimate skill guy...holy crap there's a lot to look forward to.

I think if there's one thing the run should prove is MacT's coaching ability. MacT was the first one to admit that good goaltending makes you look like a good coach, he claimed that's why the Oilers beat the Wings in 06. I beg to differ, I believe a lot of times good coaching makes your goaltender look good (or at worst a good defensive structure). Look at the Toronto Maple Leafs and their goalie woes over the last few years: here's a hint guys, it aint the goalies, its the defence...then look at the goalie successes of the Minnesota Wild. It's not a suprise that goalies continuously flourish on some teams and continuously fail on others.

In this case, I think MacT has simply done a nice job with the cards he was dealt. This team had every reason to fold the cards, but a little trade by Lowe to get Gleneration X (the new Stempniak) and all of a sudden the Oilers have an alright pest/shutdown line, Nilsson and Gagner step it up, and MacT gets top notch efforts out of the rest of the guys.

Whether the hammer falls or not, it's really been quite the ride.

Will Sam Gagner Suit Up for Team Canada?

No.

Although here is a great explanation from Gord Miller as to why that could be a good thing.

Will Sam Gagner Suit Up For Team Canada?

As both a major fan of Team Canada and of the Oilers, the answer to this question holds a particular interest to me. Sam Gagner caught my eye approximately a year ago when I attended a Team Canada World Junior tryout camp down at Father David Bauer arena. I thought that intrasquad game was a classic 'saw him good' moment for Gagner, and although he wasn't spectacular in the actual World Junior Championship, I felt he didn't look out of place, especially considering his young age.

He completed a dominating year with the Knights (playing with Chicago sensation Patrick Kane) scoring more than 2 points a game. He continued his international play with Canada playing in the 'Summit Series,' an 8 game showcase of Canadian Hockey dominance in the U-20 age group. Gagner was named tournament MVP.

It's that time of year again and the list of players invited to the Team Canada camp has come out. It's no suprise that all of Staal and Toews will not be playing for the team, but to me it's also no suprise that a decision has not yet been made on Sam Gagner. I don't think it is because the Oilers don't believe Gagner isn't contributing and so they're considering letting him get some confidence at a lower lever - rather I believe it is because the Edmonton Oilers are very strong believers in the value of World Junior Championship experience and are considering letting Gagner go despite the value he has in helping the team win.

Just a quick list of the reasons Edmonton won't send him:

1. He's already played in two international tournaments for Team Canada, and won in both. Although this year he'll be an undisputed leader and a player who is heavily relied upon in the same vein as Jonathan Toews last year, what does Gagner have to gain?

2. There's always the possibility that Gagner gets hurt during the tournament, I'm sure the team is cognizant of that fact.

3. There's no one to replace him on the big club. Although it seems the Oilers have a couple guys in their back pocket like Thoresen or Schremp, a couple of injuries and the Oilers may be forced to keep Gagner around.

4. He's making too much of an on ice contribution to let him go for any length of time. Although he statistically speaking has 0 GWG, he has four in the shootout already, and he has undoubtedly contributed to Edmonton's 7-1 shootout record. And that's ignoring his in game play, in which he's one of the ESPPM rookie leaders in the NHL.

Now a quick list of the reasons Edmonton will send Gagner:

1. What does Sam Gagner have to gain from winning? Learning how to be a leader on a winner. Edmonton has historically liked guys that have played for Team Canada; Stoll went twice, winning a bronze and silver and was named a Captain in 2002. Raffi Torres and Andrew Cogliano won a bronze and two golds respectively. Mathieu Garon played behind Roberto Luongo on a team with Eric Brewer. This list doesn't even include the guys that Edmonton has sent over to play in the World Championships; Roloson, Horcoff (x2), Staios (x2). And this list doesnt even include Ryan Smyth!

2. Edmonton might have extra bodies pretty soon. With Pisani having already returned, and Moreau coming in the next few weeks, a couple of regulars could be seeing a lot less ice time. Sure he may not be the most likely candidate (sorry Zach) but Gagner has not been strong defensively. One never knows.

As we can see, the not going list heavily outweighs the going list. MacT's thoughts on the subject are not encouraging from the perspective of a team Canada fan. However, I think the fact that Lowe is still considering the option, unlike his counterparts in Chicago, Pitsburgh, Boston and Minnesota shows just how much stock he puts in reason number one for Sam Gagner's participation. I'll end on a quote from Kevin Lowe, the man in charge of the decision.

"There's no right or wrong decision, it's what's best for the player and you have to factor in many things...it's how his confidence is, no matter how many minutes (a game) he's playing. The bottom line for us is whether we feel we can afford to lose him and, secondly, is it good for his development? If he went to the juniors, I know he'd play a lot based on the summer (junior tournament). But (Sunday) night in Anaheim in a game where a lot of guys were good, he made some of our best plays. Not just offensively producing, he makes a lot of subtle plays that experienced guys make." - Kevin Lowe on Sam Gagner

9 Games

The news has come down today that Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano and Robert Nilsson (as well as JF Jacques and Kyle Brodziak) have made the Oilers' opening night roster, while Ladislav Smid, Patrick Thoresen and Zach Stortini have been sent down to the minors, this raises a number of questions.

Firstly I think we have to ask whether these three players are truly ready for the big show. While I have strong feelings about Cogliano being ready for the bigs, at least in a small role, and think it's reasonable to try out Nilsson, it seems like there could be ulterior motives for Gagner making the team.

Now I have been regularly singing Gagner's praises. I loved his fight in his first World Junior tryout, and obviously he had a fantastic Super Series. Gagner however only had a mediocre World Junior tournament, and it's obvious he matured significantly in that 8 month gap, both physically and mentally. The question to me is whether he has matured enough from dominating mediocre 20 year old Russian players to be good enough to be a good player in the NHL (let alone an impact player). I didn't get to see him when the Oilers came to the 'Dome, but I know his preseason numbers weren't overwhelming.

So was the motivation to put Gagner in because he is ready for the NHL (or close) or was the motivation to put Gagner in the lineup because management is hoping he is ready for the NHL? Kevin Lowe is still trying to desperately keep his head above water and having his 07 1st rounder arrive to the big show early would be great 'proof' he's doing his job well.

Adding fuel to the fire, a 'typical' MacT guy, Patrick Thoresen, has been a victim of this training camp competition and has been put on waivers to be sent down to the AHL. It's a move that forces idle observers like me to at least raise the question.

Now Gagner, as well as Nilsson and Cogliano, have 9 games to prove they belong on this club.
I think Bob McKenzie explained it best:

Now it's up to Gagner to prove what he can do against NHL talent in NHL regular-season games. The Oilers will evaluate him over the course of nine games played – by him, not the team – and decide before his 10th game whether they want to burn the first year of his contract or return him to junior and have the contract kick in next season. Even if Gagner plays 10 or more games, it does not count towards a year of pro service for the purpose of determining free agency down the road unless he plays in 41 games, or a half season.

So the Oilers have plenty of time - before his 10th game and again before his 41st game – to make a call on where he's best to play this season, both from a development and business point of view. (Source)

update: I think BD highlights the the important question regarding Ladislav Smid's send down:

Of course sending Smid out just emphasizes what a complete joke last fall was when they played him with Staios on the second pairing rather then paying a little bit of money for a veteran Dman and letting Laddy get his feet wet on the third pair or playing big minutes in the AHL. The kid is likely going to be a good Dman but the handling of his situation has been a farce since day one. (Source)

Could Smid's early callup been a result of Lowe trying to prove his return for Pronger was decent?

Obviously there's a huge potential I'm way off on this, but I still feel these are questions worth asking. In 9 games we'll have an idea of the answer.

What the Super Series Means to the Edmonton Oilers

I've been meaning to get to this post idea for a while because there are a lot of (at least) short term implications of the Super Series for the Edmonton Oilers. First up, the direct impact of Sam Gagner.

I've had the opportunity to watch Gagner in one live Team Canada u-20 camp tryout and all the World Jr. Hockey Championship games, and I got to see him briefly in the game today (although I wasn't able to watch too closely due to being at work and all). His goal today was pretty nice, and his assist was nice as well. He was drafted by the Oilers this June 6th overall and by all accounts is a very good hockey player with a high degree of leadership potential. I wanted the Oilers to select Karl Alzner, but I'm as liable with draft errors as anyone, and Alzner wasn't available by that point in the draft anyway. He was named player of the game today so odds are it was hard to go wrong with either of them.

Gagner's play in this tournament could have a big effect on his future. If he continues to look like he did today, Oilers fans will be very happy with Lowe. Even if he turns out to be a crap NHLer, it'll be difficult to accuse Lowe of misfiring - Gagner just looks good right now period. But if he has a very bad tournament, it will look bad on Lowe. Another player seemingly picked on a very small sample viewing with an outlier performance.

The one that got away could make Lowe look pretty bad over the next two weeks as well. Alexi Cherepanov has had comparable numbers (better actually) than Kovalchuk, Malkin and Ovechkin in the RSL. Kevin Lowe actually had two gauranteed opportunities to draft him in June's entry drafft, but as Pierre Maguire said at the time, Kevin Lowe isn't going to pick a Russian (xenophobia perhaps? Sorry Kevin...). Brad Marchand claimed that "When we were in the World Junior Championship, he didn't step up at all. All we had to do was play our game and he was a ghost out there. Any time anyone has a chance to hit him, we have to hit him," and maybe that's why Kevin Lowe didn't bother picking Cherepanov, although one suspects it had more to do with the transfer agreement problems. Either way, if Cherepanov steps up and is the player many believe he is, Kevin Lowe will look terrible. He's dodged the bullet a few times this summer but one has to wonder how many more rounds are in the chamber and how much jump Kevin has left.

Finally, the tournament is featuring one defenceman named Drew Doughty and one forward named John Tavares. Those are two guys that could have been Oiler's property if Kevin Lowe hadn't offered Dustin Penner that outrageous offer sheet, giving up his first rounder next year. Now Tavares' draft eligibility is in question, so that may become a null problem. Doughty however, is a sure fire early first rounder for next year. He is a top notch defenceman of which the Oilers desperately covet. The odds of the Oilers actually being eligible for the spot necessary for Doughty was low, but now it's zero.

I think Canada can and will win this mini Summit Series tournament. The real question is whether Kevin Lowe will come out a winner or loser.

Team Canada U-20 Intrasquad Game Roundup

I attended the Team Canada U-20 intra-squad game tonight so I thought I'd quickly post my thoughts.

The shots may have been close after the first period, but team White dominated team Red with their forecheck and cycle. Red had absolutely no counter when team White gained the zone, and the chances for White were about 8-1.

In the second period team Red decided to show up and held zone control for long periods of time. They actually managed to tie it up 2-2 at one point. However, the 2nd half of period 2 saw White adapt and mostly keep Red to the outside, and in fact they pulled ahead later on.

The third period was more domination for Red. They scored two (including a highlight reel 3-1 goal) to put the game away, then scored a 6th to really put an exclamation point on the win.

Of particular interest to Flames fans is goaltender Leland Irving who played the 2nd half of the game. I was impressed with him, he seemed very composed and had excellent rebound control. Hard to say a lot more about him as he didn't have to make very many saves, but he only let in 1 goal, the least of any goalie in the game. I would say he's the front runner for the number 1 position. Price didn't look very impressive, and Cann really didn't make the saves when he needed to either. Bernier let in a couple but he was being bombarded so he looks like the possible backup.

Of interest to Oilers fans was Andrew Cogliano. I thought he played a real sharp game. He made an excellent defensive play in the 2nd period to check a man in front with the puck, he used his speed to create room for his teammates, including a dominating shift in the third where he simply owned the ice which resulted in a goal. He had one breakaway in which he went glove side on Price, but was denied. I thought he got better as the game went on. He ended with an assist and a tip in goal.

Therealdeals of the night had to be Sam Gagner and Steve Downie for team white, Brendan Mikkelson and James Neal for red. The 17 year old Gagner had an 'encouter' with Bourdon in the first after the whistle, and as he skated off the ice he kept his eye on Bourdon. On his next shift he challenged Bourdon a second time, proving that he wasn't going to back down from the returnee. From then on he dominated in the offensive zone and transition for the rest of the game, getting a goal and two assists, including a shorthanded highlight reel marker (seriously, its on TSN's highlights of the night) on a 3-1 from Downie.

Downie had 3 assists and was nasty all game. He took two penalties in the first and went after Bourdonwith a slash in the offensive zone in the third, resulting in Bourdon retaliating with a roughing penalty. I really respect Downie a lot and he reminds me of Messier the way he retaliates to get room for himself. He's proven that he can hold back when he needs to as well.

James Neal created a few of the few offensive zone chances for team Red all night and got one of their 3 goals. He did have some neutral zone giveaways though.

Brendan Mikkleson in my opinon was Team Red's best defenseman. He provided good outlet passes all night, made good defensive decisions and he skated well. He got Red's first goal as well, not a bad night for a new fish in a sea of returning defenseman. I would say he's got a very good chance of being the 6th or 7th defenceman based on tonight's performance.

Also of note was 17 year old Drew Doughty on defence for team White. He looked extremely composed with the puck, making several very good outlet passes and dominating on the point in the offensive zone. Cogliano's tip in was shot by Doughty, and in tonight's game he was one of the top 4 defenceman.