You Have To Be Good To Be Lucky and Lucky To Be Good

The last two weeks have brought a lot of changes to the Edmonton Oilers. Jarrett Stoll and his concussed brain finally got sent out of town with the last 'tough guy' defenceman Matt Greene. We also saw the end of Raffi Torres the illegal alien. I thought all those guys brought something valuable to the team but at this point I think it was a case of too many bodies and lots of kids who Lowe figured would have a more likely chance of outperforming their contracts.

Maybe something Darryl Sutter should look into actually.

There's been a lot of lineup predictions bandied about, especially over at LT's, but it'll probably look something like this:

Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky
Cogliano - Gagner - Nilsson
Cole - Brodziak - Pisani
Moreau - Pouliot - Stortini

Gilbert - Grebeshkov
Staios - Souray
Visnovsky - Smid

Garon
Roloson
Deslauries

It's a lineup that has a lot of depth in scoring (Penner, Cole, Horcoff, Hemsky), smarts (Horcoff, Pisani, Staios, Gilbert), and playmaking (Hemsky, Gagner, Visnovsky) but lacks physicality both up front and on defence. Still, it's one of the better lineups the Oilers have had in a long time and I'm certainly excited about the Oil's prospects this season.

I think Kevin Lowe certainly deserves a lot of credit for the lineup we'll see on opening night. He's been part of the procurement of pretty much every player on the roster. I think the little outburst against Burke the other night was long overdue, but there was one comment that I just think Lowe was at least partly off-base on.

"I stand by my offer sheets... Thomas Vanek is going to be a 35+ goal scorer for the rest of his contract… Dustin Penner is going to be a 20+ goal scorer for the rest of his contract."

Now, whether Vanek stays a 35 goal scorer or not, I still think that was a bad offer sheet. $10 million signing of a guy who really only had one good season playing behind Daniel Briere and Chris Drury is a little ridiculous, and four first round picks would have absolutely crippled this franchise for years to come, especially when one realizes just how important 1st round picks are.

The only person who made a dumber move than Kevin Lowe that day was Darcy Regier when he decided to match. I would have taken those draft picks and laughed all the way to the bank.

But that's not the only time Lowe has been rebuffed on a dumb move.

I guess we can go back to last summer to the Nylander fiasco to find one of Lowe's earlier strokes of luck. After declining to sign Ryan Smyth at $5.5 million Kevin Lowe decided Michael Nylander would be a much better fit on the team. Reasons cited included Smyth's age and proneness to injury but of course all those after the fact justifications are bullshit and the real reason Smyth was traded was probably due to incompetence.

I know a lot of Oilers fans and bloggers were excited about the prospect of signing Hossa, and certainly the idea intrigued me. However, I just couldn't get my head around the terms of the offer. First of all, if I had $9 million to throw around I wouldn't throw it at Hossa, especially not for 9 years. IMO he's not quite the calibre of player needed to justify those numbers, even if he is very very good. A contract like that is a lifetime contract and you best be sure you want that player to be the face of your franchise.

It's also not so much what Hossa doesn't bring to the table because he is a great player, it's more about what the Oilers would have to give up. At some point Roloson and Souray and Penner are coming off the books but it looks like they're here to stay for a while and the Oilers will need to resign Cole, Horcoff, Garon and Grebeshkov(RFA, but still) at the end of the year (off the top of my head). For my money I'd rather lose Hossa but keep those three guys, and I'm not convinced you could do both. Hell, as of the day the Oilers were in the bidding war for Hossa they still needed to free up some space, and if that's Souray or maybe Roloson then fine, but I don't see it happening.

So for the grace of god the Oilers have a pretty nice looking lineup, possibly even for a few seasons to come, but it could have gone the other direction very easily.

Trade Deadline: Losers

Pittsburgh Penguins

I think the Penguins went ahead and did everything I said would be a bad idea in terms of trade deadline strategy. The Penguins are a team that started the year very slowly but are now in a tight race for first in the Atlantic division. Even with Crosby out of the lineup, the team has seen a new leader step up in Evgeni Malkin.

Now, with 20 odd games left in the season, the Penguins are not only faced with the task of reinserting Sidney Crosby in the lineup and shuffling around 20-25 minutes of forward ice-time a night, they also need to shuffle around 20-25 minutes a night to slot in Hossa.

Now, obviously, this is the sort of 'problem' most GMs would love to have; too much talent. But I think it's legitimate. A good hockey team isn't an all star team, its a team with the right players to accomplish certain tasks. A good team also has good chemistry, and chemistry takes time.

To add to that, Hossa's rent a player price was far too high.

Colby Armstrong is a useful 3rd line (who, according to Pierre Maguire, had 'unbelievable chemistry' with Sidney Crosby, though I think a doorknob would have great chemistry with Crosby) player who can play with a physical edge, just ask Patrick Eaves.

Angelo Esposito is kind of a wild card; Esposito is undeniably talented but he's looking like a Robbie Schremp variety of player - lots of talent not a lot of heart.

But adding in the first rounder as well?

I wouldn't have given up all that for few games from Marian Hossa, a guy who isn't even considered a playoff performer.

Pascal Dupuis was part of the deal - he had a pretty nice season in Minnesota about 5-6 years ago when he scored 20 goals on a goal starved Wild team. He's a tenacious guy, stats wise probably comparable to Erik Christensen, so we'll call that a one off.

The only way this trade is a success is if the Pens make it to the conference finals. That is the litmus test.

3:11 pm, Tuesday February 26, 2008
Acquire: Marian Hossa, Pascal Dupuis	Acquire: Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, Angelo Esposito and a draft pick

2007 IIHF Team Canada World Championships - Just Good Enough

While there are a lot of teams that enter this tournament and simply smoke the weaker competition (the Germanys, Switzerlands, Norways, etc.), Canada has a recent history of playing just well enough to win. Whether it's due to the fact it takes the Canadian players longer to get used to playing with one another (because Canada has such a huge talent pool to draw, the players are almost never the same year to year, while say, Slovakia has the usual suspects every year), or because they're not used to playing on the big ice, or just because the Canadians have a big culture shock in Europe, Canada just seems to find a way to play just well enough to win. The trend has continued this year.

While Canada beat both Germany and Norway, one could argue that both those teams provided a 'scare' to the Canadians. The Norweigens hit the scoreboard first and the two teams were deadlocked at 2 heading into the third. Canada definately had not yet hit their stride.

I thought Canada got off to another poor start in this game, getting hemmed into their own zone, and then taking a penalty which immediately led to a power-play goal by Slovakia. Canada got it's own powerplay and scored only 90 seconds later though, on a blast from the point from Canada secret weapon, Cory Murphy. I estimate that Murphy plays about 9 minutes a game, but the diminutive defenceman is tied for the team lead in points with Rick Nash, and I just think he looks really comfortable and confident out there after some jitters early on in the Germany game.

I thought Canada really took over the game in the second, jumping out to a 3-1, and then 4-2 lead, but uncharacteristicly bad defence from Canada allowed Slovakia to stay in the game. First Eric Brewer got caught trying to skate the puck out of his own end, and he was caught by Marian Hossa who immediately beat Dwayne Roloson to score. Then some sloppy defensive work by the Phaneuf/Hamhuis pairing allowed Marek Uram in on a breakaway which he buried. Leading by 1 in the third, Canada had a massive miscommunication between Roloson and his defenseman which lead to Slovakia tieing the game.

Rick Nash has been described by the play-by-play team of Dave Randorf and Dave Reid as being 'snakebitten' thus far in the tournament, but I would have to say thats an overstatement. Although Nash hasn't converted as many goals as perhaps he could, he has been Canada's single best offensive player by a longshot, and by all accounts, simply looks terrific out on the ice. In Canada's game versus Norway he has 11 shots on net, scoring one goal. Now, as I mentioned before, he is tied for the team lead in points, which goes to show he isn't exactly snake bitten, but I would be willing to admit that his points to chance ratio is not very good.

Anyway, enter today's game and Nash still looks completely on fire. He drives to the net like nobody's business and so far there hasn't been a defenceman thats been even close to handling him. Today he made a simply brilliant move by tipping a puck from the side of the net towards the front of the net and then batting it in for a shot. Nash's shot was saved but Hamhuis grabbed the rebound, and I think that incident is a pretty good illustration of the kind of impact Nash has had on the team. So Slovakia and Canada are tied with about half the third period gone and Canada is on a powerplay. The puck goes out to Cory Murphy on the point, who as usual makes a great play by getting the puck through traffic and on net, but just before Slovakian goalie Halak (Montreal's 3rd/2nd stringer this year) is able to put his glove on it, Nash tips the puck and Canada goes up 5-4 for the final goal of the game.

Canada should have had this game wrapped up in the 2nd period. 4 goals should be more than enough to win a game. But as I said before, Canada usually plays just well enough to win, and that's not necessarily bad, as long as you actually do win.

CP Game Story

Hockey Canada Game Story

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Before Turin 2006, there was a firestorm created by Liberal MP Denis Coderre, in which Coderre accused Shane Doan of uttering some sort of slur against French people. By every account, this event did not happen, and Shane Doan sued the crap out of Coderre, and last I recall, he at least got a formal apology letter from the media hungry Coderre.

Now, the 'controvery' has arisen again as Canadian MPs have apparently run out of real problems to solve. Any politician who brings something like this up in parliament and slurs Shane Doan like that is a total disgrace. In this case Jack Layton jumped on the bandwagon rally against Shane Doan, and there was debate in the house as to whether Shane Doan is a worthy Captain Canada.

Look in the mirror Canada, we elected 'em.

'I'm embarrassed that there's all this attention about it,'' Doan said. ''I never said anything so I don't understand why it keeps getting a life of its own.'' (Source)

"It's ridiculous," said NHL vice-president Colin Campbell, who investigated the 2005 incident.

"It's rather embarrassing to all Canadian hockey fans we're rehashing this again, particularly when Hockey Canada and Shane Doan are representing and working hard in Moscow right now, competing for our country."(Source)

"In the heat of the battle things get said sometimes - a lot worse than being called a French frog or whatever," Vancouver Canucks coach Alain Vigneault said.

"(Doan) says he didn't say it. Even if he did, come on. If our politicians, French or English, if that's the only thing right now they have to worry about ... There's a lot more important things going on right now in society. It is utterly, utterly stupid, not to say embarrassing."(Source)