Blueprints

If there ever was a blueprint for dismantling a great team in a short time without any real (or at least obvious) rebuilding plans, Kevin Lowe has wrote it.

Trading your all star/franchise defenceman for very little return is the first step. Upon hearing of the necessity of moving Pronger (which I grant was a necessity) I felt that a negative could be turned into a positive. The (at the time) gargantuan Pronger contract could be liberated and in return the Oilers could get a couple top end prospects and a high end young player (who was cheap), and finally, could leverage that extra room into a long term contract for the heart and soul of the franchise, Ryan Smyth.

While the Pronger loss would sting, the Oilers would retain their core group: Smyth, Horcoff, Stoll, Hemsky, Pisani, Smith, Staios, Roloson (and to a lesser extent, Torres). Without blowing anyone away, it would be a consistent hard working group not yet hitting their prime. Add in a couple young prospects in the return and you've got a pretty decent group.

The Oilers managed to not get a useable young hockey player in the Pronger return. While I see a lot of potential in Smid, he was not the 'useable young hockey player' in the deal, he was the high end prospect. Lupul was supposed to be the useable guy; in his one season with the Oilers he had the 2nd worst plus minus in the league. Honestly, the less said about Lupul the better.

Step number two in this blueprint is to totally blow the negotiations with the key piece of your core. Not a soul in the world would argue Ryan Smyth was the engine that drove this team for years (although some have argued there are nicer engines out there). Kevin Lowe managed to overpay a bunch of cogs in the machine and avoid the engine in the year before the engine hit free agency. 'We'll negotiate in the summer' Lowe told Smyth, predicting Smyth would not continue to build on his consistently strong career. After Lowe signed Staios early into the season, Ryan Smyth declared he would not take a home town discount this time (a lie.) Lowe began to panic at Smyth's increasingly impressive goal total (one night he racked up 3 in a shorter time span than any Oiler in history, gaining his rightful place among Oiler greats) and implied they should negotiate in-season. The Smyth camp accommodated this suggestion but the two sides weren't moving a lot from their initial positions. Having already abandoned his plan of resigning Smyth in the off season, Kevin Lowe decided to go a step further and insist that if Ryan wasn't signed before the off season, he would have to be traded. Although practically a smart plan, it wasn't necessarily a necessity. The Oilers would undoubtedly have the high ground in an FA chance, and besides, they still had until July 1 before he hit free agency. Both sides were motivated to keep Ryan in Edmonton.

Kevin Lowe made the call and traded Smyth for some mid level prospects.

Now I don't believe in all the talk about Edmonton not being a desired location to play, but sending the heart and soul (and one of the most popular players in the league) of your team off with a bad taste in his mouth probably didn't ease over any image problems Edmonton has with NHLers.

Anyway, the final step involves the lack of ability to improve the team in any meaningful way. I'll be the first to admit that trading Smith (nooooooooooooo!) and Lupul (good riddance) for Pitkanen and Sanderson is probably a good move simply because Pitkanen is the best player in the deal; however, does it feel to anyone like a token move, meant only as a way to make it look like Lowe is doing something...anything.

If you look at balance sheet, Edmonton traded Chris Pronger, Ryan Smyth, Jason Smith for Smid, Pitkanen, Sanderson, Nilsson, O'Marra, Nash, Plante and a couple 2008 picks.

Have I got that right?

There has better be one hell of a rabbit coming out of that 2008 draft hat, or this is one of the worst series of deals in hockey history.

Not to mention all the talk after the Smyth trade about 'needing a better top guy than Ryan Smyth.' That talk is all well and good, but let's examine the reality. The Oilers had the ability yesterday to pick from a variety of top level guys that are arguably better than Ryan Smyth. Who did they end up with?

Michael Nylander.

Now I have no particular issues with Michael Nylander, I've met him, he was a really nice guy, he can clearly put up the points. But is he a better top guy than Ryan Smyth?

If you're going into the trenches day in and day out, who would you rather have on your side?

It wouldn't surprise me either if Nylander was signed to a contract close in numbers to the contract Ryan Smyth offered up Edmonton way back in February. Maybe not in length, but in dollars/year.

Not to mention the Oilers are already stocked on centers. Perhaps this signals another future move, sending Moreau or Horcoff or Stoll out for a winger.

The engine's already gone, why bother keeping the cogs?

And that is a quick overview of how you quickly dismantle a great team without any rebuilding plan.

We need a miracle from Ken Lowe

A long time ago, I wrote about the loss of Ethan Moreau and the effect it could have on this team. At the beginning of the season, or near beginning, the Oilers were adrift in the seas of 'quality forwards' they aquired over the years. The lineup looked something like this:


Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky
Pisani-Stoll-Torres
Sykora-Moreau-Lupul
Reasoner-Thoresen-Winchester

Now, if you looked at that lineup today, it would not have the same sort of status as when the season started. Lupul never turned into the feared sniper we thought (hoped?) he would, Sykora's play wass about as mediocre as it ever was, Winchester never took that extra step etc etc etc. Bear in mind, the lines also looked a lot different, but given the way the season has gone I doubt there would be many that would argue the top two lines listed are pretty solid, the third is adrift no matter what, and the 4th would have been at least interesting. So as long as we're dreaming we might as well dream of optimum combinations.

Granted, this forward lineup never became as feared or as punishing as it 'should have,' but in my opinion, looking at this lineup today, it's still a very solid group from top to bottom. Hemsky and Smyth playing together are about as effective as any twosome, Pisani, Stoll and Torres provide a nice mix of smarts, toughness and scoring touch, Moreau compliments Lupul and Sykora's skill with some toughness and defensive responsibility, and the third line has a lot of smarts and also some toughness. And in fact, the Oil were doing pretty well with this lineup (if I could figure out how to look up their record at the time I would, but I recall some degree of success).

However, the loss of Moreau, in my opinion, was the beginning of the end of the Oiler's season. My earlier post referred to the loss of leadership and consistency Moreau brings every night to this franchise. I predicted Smith, Staios, Smyth, Horcoff and Stoll (I didn't mention Pisani but in my opinion he fits in that group) would pick up the slack, and I think for a time they did.

Then Smytty got hurt. Arguably the nose dive started around the time they lost to Anaheim at home in a game they should have won, but when Smytty went down about the only positive to emerge was Jarret Stoll's consistent play.

Smytty comes back, and Staois goes down.

Staois comes back, Stoll goes down.

Stoll does not come back, Pisani goes down.

So now the Oilers are out on full forward line consisting of some of their most consistent and effective players, down 3 key leadership guys, down a depth defenseman (my first mention of the mysterious Tjarnqvist injury) and they're expected to go on a 7 game road trip and save the season.

Excuse my pessimism, but good luck guys.

Obviously, our lack of defence has hurt. Losing Pronger, Spacek, Samsanov and Peca has hurt. But I believe this team had the personel required to squeek into the playoffs (at least) at the beginning of the season. The core of this team, of which painstaking care was taken to keep intact, has been rattled with injuries, and to expect success while missing several key guys over prolonged periods is unrealistic.

So unless Ken Lowe can work miracles with Stoll and Pisani, this team isn't heading anywhere besides the golf course.

5/5 = Playoffs

While the odds of the Edmonton Oilers actually making the playoffs is dwindling faster than Sean Avery's chances of winning the Lady Byng, the faithful still believe there is a Lloyd Christmas dating Mary Swanson chance of making it. And while Scarlett at Only Oil has come up with a number I agree with, I would like clarify it even further.

The Oilers play the currently in 8th place, the Minnesota Wild, a total of FIVE times over the last 30 odd games of the season. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that if the Oilers can take all 5 games in regulation, they will squeak into the playoffs for a second straight year.

In fact, taken another way, the future of this year's Edmonton Oiler team is more in their hands than perhaps any other season before. Of the final 27 games of the season, including tonight's against the Thrashers, the Oilers play, 10 of them are against Northwest opponents, 13 against Western Conference teams currently ahead of them in the standings.

Of course, actually winning those games will depend on a couple key factors:

1. Will Jarret Stoll return from his headache break? Oil fans are holding their breath waiting for this mid season Oiler MVP to get back into the lineup after taking a stick to the helmet. If you're thinking about Tim Connolly it may be a bit premature, but not out of the question.

2. Will Smytty sign and carry this team into the playoffs? He's done about everything humanly possible to keep this team in the black and the Oilers have no hope without him.

3. Will the Oilers make a trade for a depth defenceman, or will Tjarnqvist return? The Oilers cannot afford any more callups on defence. They're shaky enough as it is with their current lineup.

4. Can Sean Horcoff continue his recent strong play? Since being reunited with Smyth and Hemsky the never say die centre has been able to return to doing the simple things right. His defensive zone coverage has totally turned around and he's been buzzing around the opposition net a lot more.

5. Lupul-Pouliot-Sykora - Will these three step up, or step out?

6. Buyers or sellers? I'm not of the opinion the Oilers are either. I think they have a good group in general and keeping the core together for next year is of the utmost importance. Its not worth it for them to give up a solid player like Raffi Torres for a rental guy that most likely won't be able to impact this team enough to create any short term success. On the other hand, I don't think its necessary to unload guys like Jason Smith for prospects as I believe he still fits in with the gameplan for next season.

7. The defence is still undermanned. That's not a question.

I think in general, these are the questions Oilers fans will see answered over the course of the next two-three weeks, and the answers will determine whether or not the Oilers can put together enough solid games to beat the teams they need to in order to reach the playoffs. That was a very convoluted sentence, but you get the idea.

At its very core, this season will come down to simple math: 5/5 = playoffs.