The Shape of Things To Come

With the absolutely necessary signing of Shawn Horcoff, the Oilers have cemented a couple issues. One: Lowetide changed his site's signature from 'Sign Sean Horcoff' to 'Horcoff Signed!'
Two: We can now predict with some small level of certainty what the team will look like for at least the next few years. And except for a couple of albatrosses, things look pretty good. Let's look at some roster projections barring any trades.

Let's look at the Oilers roster and ages as of 09-10

Penner(27) - Horcoff(31) - Hemsky(26)
Nilsson(24) - Gagner(20) - Cogliano (22)
Moreau(35) - Pouliot(24) - Pisani(33)
Stortini(24)

Visnovsky(33) - Souray(33)
Staios(36) - Gilbert(26)

The 10-11 season:

Penner(28) - Horcoff(32) - Hemsky(27)
Nilsson (25)
Moreau(36)
Stortini(25)

Visnovsky(34) - Souray(34)
Staios(37) - Gilbert(27)

The Core
Looking at this lineup, we can deduce a few upcoming moves and probably when they will happen. Most obvious here is that the Oilers have their core forward group locked up until at least the end of next season, and the guys they have invested a lot of chips in (Penner, Horcoff, Hemsky) through the 10-11 season.

Coming Attractions
The young guns (Gagner, Cogliano, Brodziak) are not immediate concerns but Lowe already needs to start planning his next group of long term contracts around these guys. They're bargains now but where is the cap space going to come when they need resigning. We could be looking at $4-$6 million dollar contracts at the higher end.

Old Grey Horse
The Oilers have invested a lot of chips into Visnovski and Souray who are both already at or past their prime years, unless of course they take the Nik Lidstrom course of action and just keep getting better and better. This means that as the forward group is nearing their prime the Oilers' top defenceman are leaving it. The timing is not good. Reading the tea leaves one of the two is out of town if the opportunity arises. Probably Souray.

Something Has To Give
The Oilers' defensive future isn't really signed. Tom Gilbert is certainly a part of it, no doubt, but given the ages of the other defenceman I think the Oilers have to bank something on Grebeshkov or someone else in that age range. Right or wrong, the defensive group is built for today and the forward group for tomorrow. Something has to give.

Dangerous Game
Where are the goalies? Good question. Deslauriers resigned and I would think he is being groomed to be the new backup while Rolie plays out the rest of his contract this season. Garon, meanwhile, is unsigned after 08-09. Obviously then, the Oiler's top priority between now and July 1 2009 is finding a number 1 goaltender. I would say the plan is to play Garon as the number 1 this season, judge how he reacts, and then resign him, although to believe Lowe isn't flying by the seat of his pants might be a misjudgement. Call this the 'Smyth Plan?'

Long Term Priority List:
Sign a number 1 goalie, Garon or otherwise
Trade or buyout Sheldon Souray
Don't escalate commitment into Penner or Souray if they aren't working out.

Thoughts?

You Have To Be Good To Be Lucky and Lucky To Be Good

The last two weeks have brought a lot of changes to the Edmonton Oilers. Jarrett Stoll and his concussed brain finally got sent out of town with the last 'tough guy' defenceman Matt Greene. We also saw the end of Raffi Torres the illegal alien. I thought all those guys brought something valuable to the team but at this point I think it was a case of too many bodies and lots of kids who Lowe figured would have a more likely chance of outperforming their contracts.

Maybe something Darryl Sutter should look into actually.

There's been a lot of lineup predictions bandied about, especially over at LT's, but it'll probably look something like this:

Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky
Cogliano - Gagner - Nilsson
Cole - Brodziak - Pisani
Moreau - Pouliot - Stortini

Gilbert - Grebeshkov
Staios - Souray
Visnovsky - Smid

Garon
Roloson
Deslauries

It's a lineup that has a lot of depth in scoring (Penner, Cole, Horcoff, Hemsky), smarts (Horcoff, Pisani, Staios, Gilbert), and playmaking (Hemsky, Gagner, Visnovsky) but lacks physicality both up front and on defence. Still, it's one of the better lineups the Oilers have had in a long time and I'm certainly excited about the Oil's prospects this season.

I think Kevin Lowe certainly deserves a lot of credit for the lineup we'll see on opening night. He's been part of the procurement of pretty much every player on the roster. I think the little outburst against Burke the other night was long overdue, but there was one comment that I just think Lowe was at least partly off-base on.

"I stand by my offer sheets... Thomas Vanek is going to be a 35+ goal scorer for the rest of his contract… Dustin Penner is going to be a 20+ goal scorer for the rest of his contract."

Now, whether Vanek stays a 35 goal scorer or not, I still think that was a bad offer sheet. $10 million signing of a guy who really only had one good season playing behind Daniel Briere and Chris Drury is a little ridiculous, and four first round picks would have absolutely crippled this franchise for years to come, especially when one realizes just how important 1st round picks are.

The only person who made a dumber move than Kevin Lowe that day was Darcy Regier when he decided to match. I would have taken those draft picks and laughed all the way to the bank.

But that's not the only time Lowe has been rebuffed on a dumb move.

I guess we can go back to last summer to the Nylander fiasco to find one of Lowe's earlier strokes of luck. After declining to sign Ryan Smyth at $5.5 million Kevin Lowe decided Michael Nylander would be a much better fit on the team. Reasons cited included Smyth's age and proneness to injury but of course all those after the fact justifications are bullshit and the real reason Smyth was traded was probably due to incompetence.

I know a lot of Oilers fans and bloggers were excited about the prospect of signing Hossa, and certainly the idea intrigued me. However, I just couldn't get my head around the terms of the offer. First of all, if I had $9 million to throw around I wouldn't throw it at Hossa, especially not for 9 years. IMO he's not quite the calibre of player needed to justify those numbers, even if he is very very good. A contract like that is a lifetime contract and you best be sure you want that player to be the face of your franchise.

It's also not so much what Hossa doesn't bring to the table because he is a great player, it's more about what the Oilers would have to give up. At some point Roloson and Souray and Penner are coming off the books but it looks like they're here to stay for a while and the Oilers will need to resign Cole, Horcoff, Garon and Grebeshkov(RFA, but still) at the end of the year (off the top of my head). For my money I'd rather lose Hossa but keep those three guys, and I'm not convinced you could do both. Hell, as of the day the Oilers were in the bidding war for Hossa they still needed to free up some space, and if that's Souray or maybe Roloson then fine, but I don't see it happening.

So for the grace of god the Oilers have a pretty nice looking lineup, possibly even for a few seasons to come, but it could have gone the other direction very easily.

Anatomy of a Trade(s)

Yesterday at LT's I commented that the only way the last two days make a lot of sense is if you assume Pitkanen advised Lowe and the Oilers management, whether directly or indirectly, that he had no intention of re-signing with Edmonton, much in the way Pronger demanded a trade. I think if you look at the last two days not only are the moves more forgivable if you disagree with them, but they prove to actually be quite shrewed. Here's the evidence:

April 11th: Tom Gilbert is signed to a brand new $24 million/6 year contract.

April 14th: Denis Grebeshkov is signed to a one year contract.

Interpretation: Much like how Horcoff, Moreau, Pisani and Staios were signed before Smyth, the Oilers seem to prioritize the importance of their players based on the date on which they're signed. Tom Gilbert and Denis Grebeshkov were obviously higher priorities than Joni Pitkanen.

June 30th: Kevin Lowe trades Matt Greene and Jarret Stoll to the Los Angeles Kings for Lubomir Visnovsky, a puck moving defenceman in the vein of Joni Pitkanen. Lubomir Visnovsky is significantly older and more expensive than Pitkanen.

Interpretation: I'll ask one question: if there was a chance of signing Pitkanen, why trade for a(n approximate) duplicate player.

July 1: Joni Pitkanen, an RFA is traded to the Carolina Hurricanes for Eric Cole who is on the last year of a 3 year $4 million contract and is due to become a UFA at seasons end. He will almost certainly get a pay raise.

Interpretation: This could just be Lowe addressing a need and using a redundant piece to get it, but again, why the Visnovsky move? Couldn't Lowe have just traded Greene and Stoll (and potentially add Torres to the mix) for a forward like Cole? Jonathan also mentioned today that there must be a market for a guy like Souray as well, and I agree with him. Any of those guys could have been packaged for a Cole like player. So why Pitkanen?

July 2: Joni Pitkanen signs a three year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes at an average of $4 million per year ($3.5, $4.0, $4.5).

Interpretation: Pitkanen is immediately signed to a pretty reasonable $12 million/3 year, less that I (and I assume others) would have predicted he would get. About the same as Gilbert, although less years.

Length of term of course may have been an issue; Pitkanen may have not wanted to commit to Edmonton for 6 years and maybe would have taken 3 years. But then, if length of term was the issue, why trade for a guy who's signed for one year?

Add to that MacT's comments today on the Team 1260 (via Rod over at LT's):

"MacT interview on the Team 1260 (after the Katz presser) was very revealing. Topic of Pitkanen started out about a "difference in philosophy" as the reason he's gone. MacT said that was a "complimentary way of phrasing it". MacT went on to say he didn't see a commitment to win from Pitkanen (particularly a team game). Strides were made through the year though, so MacT thought they were making some progress (conversation at the end of the year reinforced that apparently).

Then, from what MacT said, Pitkanen informed the Oil he didn't want to come back. MacT figured that might become a pattern for Pitkanen and that he'll be a nomad."

I think we can safely assume by the known events and comments made by Oilers staff that Joni Pitkanen was simply uninterested in returning as an Edmonton Oiler and the Oilers built their 08-09 roster around that assumption.

That said, I think Lowe did an alright job with the hand he was dealt, mainly assuming he manages to extend Horcoff and re-sign Cole.

Edmonton Oilers: What We Can Expect?

You know on Saturday night I had a whole list of things I wanted to say about the remaining quarter of the Edmonton Oilers season written down, and I lugged it around with me for the last 5 days, and of course, now that I'm going to publish my thoughts I've lost it.

Shit.

Still, I think I can wing it and come out with some pretty accurate predictions.

No Horcoff? No hope.
Despite the wins over the last week or so the Oilers have lost their best forward for the rest of the year, and with it, they lost the smallest remaining chance of making the playoffs. Not that this is some sort of bold claim, I can't imagine there were many people at the beginning of the year believing the Oilers would make the playoffs, but let's face it, with Horcoff going out, only disaster can follow.

This team, give it credit, has shown an impressive degree of resiliancy. I expect them to get blown out of the water every week, but so far they only have against the Flames. Outshot and outplayed badly, they actually managed to put 4-5 pucks behind Kiprusoff, only converting one. If Garon doesn't catch a rut it's a 1 goal game with a couple minutes late, and while it's not an excuse it's at least respectable.

But let's just put this season out of it's misery.

A Trade
The more often Mathieu Garon plays the more I believe it's unlikely the Oilers are willing to accept Roloson as a $3 million backup. I love the man, I really do. I appreciate what he did in 06, I love his fire, his commitment, and I believe he can still be a respectable goalie and a veteran leader for some lucky team. Goalies' have bad years, it happens (Kipper has been pretty mediocre for instance). But Garon is simply playing too well to be ignored, and Roloson is just too expensive and too old to be a backup.

Roloson is the obvious trade of course, and probably the smart one, but given the last 2 years or so a smart Oilers fan wouldn't bet on the smart trade. Knowing Lowe, he's lining up Gilbert to be traded to Philadelphia for Derian Hatcher. His reasoning will be that Hatcher is more affordable because his value is going down while Gilbert's is going up, plus Hatcher did that hit job for Lowe on Lupul and Lowe 'owes him one.'

The Kids Aren't Alright
You'd be hard pressed to find a better online (or even offline for that matter) resource for evalution of the Edmonton Oilers farm system than LT, so you're better off taking your specific preditions from him, but I'll say this; we're going to get some peeks from kids on the farm. Whether it be Robbie Schremp or Jeff Deslauriers or more Liam Reddox, we'll see someone from the farm.

Kevin Lowe Fire...Given Contract Extention???

Unreal.

TSN has learned that the Edmonton Oilers have signed Kevin Lowe to a multi-year contract extension.

The team will make the announcement official at a media conference on Saturday morning. (Source)

Reactions:

Black Dog Hates Skunks : Critical Thought
I like Kevin Lowe. I think he has drafted well. Not great but pretty well. I think his track record before the recent fiascos is decent. I also believe that giving him a contract extension makes no sense. Riversq posted over at IOF the other day that the idea of waiting to see how this year plays out before deciding on Lowe drives him crazy. Apparently EIG decided not even to wait on that. Souray could go minus forty. Penner could score five goals. The kids who have everyone excited right now could all be buried in the minors by November. Doesn't matter. Based on '06, I guess, Lowe has gotten his reward. (Source)

Lowetide : What, EXACTLY, Is Up Around the Bend?
Love the town team. Today Kevin Lowe will receive a contract extension. I'm not going to argue with the extension, but the timing really casts a shadow over what the Oilers are trying to do here. Are they really interested in winning? Or is it more important to keep up appearances? I do believe that the EIG would have been better served by waiting out this season to see how things went and then deciding on the future in the spring based on results. (Source)

Battle of Alberta: Conspiracy Theory
Before this morning, I didn't believe whatsoever that there was any kind of wink-wink nudge-nudge to Brian Burke's ranting ...and then picking up the red phone to Lowe's office (. Now? Sorry, but I can just see Cal Nichols reading the newspaper on Thursday morning, saying, "Run this team into the sewer? We'll see about that!""Multi-year it is!"). (Source)


My reaction is that this is pretty unreal. I think Black Dog's post sums up quite nicely why Kevin Lowe doesn't deserve a contract extention, (and why at the very least the EIG should have waited the year out). I (and Lowetide especially) have speculated at what point Kevin Lowe would be fired this season. At one point, Lowetide even questioned whether Lowe would last the summer. The EIG has suprised us all.

Pisani out indefinetely

I think God must hate the Oilers, or maybe just the city of Edmonton.

EDMONTON (CP) - Edmonton forward Fernando Pisani will be out of the Oilers lineup indefinitely after being diagnosed with ulcerative colitis, the club announced Tuesday.

Ulcerative colitis is type of inflammatory bowel disorder.

"I would like to thank everyone who has supported me through this difficult time, especially my wife and family," said Pisani, who is currently undergoing treatment. "I appreciate all the wonderful words of encouragement I have received, including messages from my teammates. I look forward to returning to the Oilers."

"We are very concerned about Fernando's medical condition and we wish him nothing but a full and healthy recovery," said Oilers General Manager Kevin Lowe in a statement.

Pisani, 30, had 14 goals, 14 assist in 77 games with Edmonton last season. After scoring 14 goals in the 2006 playoffs, Pisani was rewarded with a four-year, US$10-million contract in the off-season. (source)

What the Super Series Means to the Edmonton Oilers

I've been meaning to get to this post idea for a while because there are a lot of (at least) short term implications of the Super Series for the Edmonton Oilers. First up, the direct impact of Sam Gagner.

I've had the opportunity to watch Gagner in one live Team Canada u-20 camp tryout and all the World Jr. Hockey Championship games, and I got to see him briefly in the game today (although I wasn't able to watch too closely due to being at work and all). His goal today was pretty nice, and his assist was nice as well. He was drafted by the Oilers this June 6th overall and by all accounts is a very good hockey player with a high degree of leadership potential. I wanted the Oilers to select Karl Alzner, but I'm as liable with draft errors as anyone, and Alzner wasn't available by that point in the draft anyway. He was named player of the game today so odds are it was hard to go wrong with either of them.

Gagner's play in this tournament could have a big effect on his future. If he continues to look like he did today, Oilers fans will be very happy with Lowe. Even if he turns out to be a crap NHLer, it'll be difficult to accuse Lowe of misfiring - Gagner just looks good right now period. But if he has a very bad tournament, it will look bad on Lowe. Another player seemingly picked on a very small sample viewing with an outlier performance.

The one that got away could make Lowe look pretty bad over the next two weeks as well. Alexi Cherepanov has had comparable numbers (better actually) than Kovalchuk, Malkin and Ovechkin in the RSL. Kevin Lowe actually had two gauranteed opportunities to draft him in June's entry drafft, but as Pierre Maguire said at the time, Kevin Lowe isn't going to pick a Russian (xenophobia perhaps? Sorry Kevin...). Brad Marchand claimed that "When we were in the World Junior Championship, he didn't step up at all. All we had to do was play our game and he was a ghost out there. Any time anyone has a chance to hit him, we have to hit him," and maybe that's why Kevin Lowe didn't bother picking Cherepanov, although one suspects it had more to do with the transfer agreement problems. Either way, if Cherepanov steps up and is the player many believe he is, Kevin Lowe will look terrible. He's dodged the bullet a few times this summer but one has to wonder how many more rounds are in the chamber and how much jump Kevin has left.

Finally, the tournament is featuring one defenceman named Drew Doughty and one forward named John Tavares. Those are two guys that could have been Oiler's property if Kevin Lowe hadn't offered Dustin Penner that outrageous offer sheet, giving up his first rounder next year. Now Tavares' draft eligibility is in question, so that may become a null problem. Doughty however, is a sure fire early first rounder for next year. He is a top notch defenceman of which the Oilers desperately covet. The odds of the Oilers actually being eligible for the spot necessary for Doughty was low, but now it's zero.

I think Canada can and will win this mini Summit Series tournament. The real question is whether Kevin Lowe will come out a winner or loser.

Brian Burke's Relationship with Kevin Lowe to Change

Brian Burke's conference call with the media wrapped up this afternoon with Burke pulling no punches in his description of Kevin Lowe. Some highlights:

On the offer from Lowe:

I thought that was gutless. I have no problem with offer sheets. They're part of the CBA. But in my opinion, Edmonton has offered a mostly inflated salary for a player, and I think it's an act of desperation for a general manager who is fighting to keep his job


On whether he and Lowe speak often,

We used to, quite a bit.

On whether that will continue,

I have no idea



It honestly seems to me Burke is more steamed about the way Lowe went about this, or just the fact that Lowe did go about this, than he is about losing a hockey player, which as an Oiler fan is very bad news. Honestly, if any GM has the motivation to keep Kevin Lowe around it should be Burkie. I mean, that ring Kevin gave to him in the spring should be worth at least one tongue bite.

I guess they're just like every married couple though. Once Burke got that ring I guess it doesn't matter anymore. Can't take it away.

link to the transcript

Kukla's Korner reaction

Kevin Lowe No Longer Wants to Be an NHL GM

Kevin Lowe signed Dustin Penner to a $21.5/5 offer sheet this afternoon, and it's a bad move for a number of reasons, most of which Lowetide has already summed up.

Goodbye Drew Doughty. Goodbye John Tavares. Goodbye Steven Stamkos. Hello years of futility.

While I thought the Vanek offer wasn't a prudent move, I could at least accept the numbers and player quality involved. Vanek has shown the potential to be another Ales Hemsky type player (or better) and having a couple of guys like that on the team would have been ok, even given the draft pick cost. The price was high, but I think it was a very fair offer and by the time Vanek hits free agency he'll be hearing numbers higher than that. At worst the Vanek move was reckless, but at best it was slick.

The Penner offer has none of the shrewdness of the Vanek offer. You could argue Vanek's numbers were inflated, but drop them all even 30% and they were still pretty respectable. Penner doesn't come close to the Vanek's production numbers, he's much older, and his competition was approximately equal (as arguably were his linemates).

Darcy Regier had the motivation and cap space to bail Lowe out of his idiocy.

Brian Burke has absolutely no reason to sign Penner for that much money, and I doubt he has the room anyway. Besides, if anyone loves draft picks it's Burke; I guarantee right now he's licking his chops thanking Lowe for giving him far more back than Penner would have received in any sort of trade deal.

This total string of idiocy has lead me to one conclusion. Kevin Lowe no longer wants to be an NHL general manager.

Other reactions:

Battle of California
"Joffry Lupul II"

Covered in Oil
"At $4.3 million a year, it's a reasonable offer on a burgeoning talent..."

Five Hole Fanatics
"Were I Brian Burke, I'd take the draft picks and run."

Souray Signs with Edmonton

(Source)
Some quick thoughts:

• Paul Kariya likes playing in places like Anaheim, Nashville, St. Louis, away from fans that will hold him accountable. Obviously Souray does not share this sentiment, moving from Montreal to Edmonton.

• Being an Alberta boy probably played heavily into his signing. Maybe the Oilers should target key Alberta born players if they're really having trouble drawing stars...start with that Ryan Smyth guy-I heard he's good.

• I really enjoy and agree with Lowetide's description of Souray as a 'Chaos' defender. Many times Souray will be just as likely to cost you a goal as score one or prevent one. That said, Souray can be a force at times.

• I was initially against getting a guy like Souray (a Chaos defender), but the Oilers need bodies and some good PR. In that sense this is probably a good move.

• There's been a lot of speculation about the Oilers starting defensive groupings. I think we can now see the team starting to take shape:

Souray - Staios
Pitkanen - Tarnstrom
Smid - Greene

• Pitkanen could be put with Souray, creating a Staios-Tarnstrom tandem, but I like the idea of sheltering Pitkanen from too many minutes/responsibility early, and I like Steady Stevey Staios playing with Sheldon 'Chaos' Souray.

• Will the Oilers be able to still find room for that desperately needed forward?

• What did Souray cost?
  

• Has Lowe done enough to stay the execution?
  

Covering Your Ass - By Kevin Lowe

I just received this in my email box:

Oilers Statement regarding Michael Nylander

The Edmonton Oilers Hockey Club is compelled to clarify the unfortunate and unprecedented circumstances surrounding the Edmonton Oilers and Michael Nylander.

On Sunday, July 1, 2007, Kevin Lowe, Oilers General Manager, and Mr. Mike Gillis, Certified Agent for Michael Nylander, negotiated and agreed to a multi-year NHL Standard Players Contract, starting in 2007/08. Mr. Gillis confirmed same to the Oilers in writing.

The Oilers then proceeded with preparations to announce Mr. Nylander’s contract agreement on July 2, and concurrently continued with the process of negotiating with other free agents based upon Mr. Nylander being an important roster ingredient for the future.

However, while the Oilers were expecting the returned, signed agreements from Mr. Nylander and Mr. Gillis, the Oilers discovered through public announcements made mid-afternoon on July 2, that Mr. Nylander had subsequently entered into a long-term contract with the Capitals.

The Oilers can find no precedent for such conduct in our history. The Oilers are examining and pursuing every course of action available in the best interest of the team and our fans.

For legal reasons, the Edmonton Oilers Hockey Club will not be discussing the details any further at this time.

Wow. Only the Oilers, only the Oilers.

If Kevin Lowe was smart he'd realize that he'd have looked like a bigger fool giving Smyth's money to Nylander. Who the hell is running the asylum anyway?

Blueprints

If there ever was a blueprint for dismantling a great team in a short time without any real (or at least obvious) rebuilding plans, Kevin Lowe has wrote it.

Trading your all star/franchise defenceman for very little return is the first step. Upon hearing of the necessity of moving Pronger (which I grant was a necessity) I felt that a negative could be turned into a positive. The (at the time) gargantuan Pronger contract could be liberated and in return the Oilers could get a couple top end prospects and a high end young player (who was cheap), and finally, could leverage that extra room into a long term contract for the heart and soul of the franchise, Ryan Smyth.

While the Pronger loss would sting, the Oilers would retain their core group: Smyth, Horcoff, Stoll, Hemsky, Pisani, Smith, Staios, Roloson (and to a lesser extent, Torres). Without blowing anyone away, it would be a consistent hard working group not yet hitting their prime. Add in a couple young prospects in the return and you've got a pretty decent group.

The Oilers managed to not get a useable young hockey player in the Pronger return. While I see a lot of potential in Smid, he was not the 'useable young hockey player' in the deal, he was the high end prospect. Lupul was supposed to be the useable guy; in his one season with the Oilers he had the 2nd worst plus minus in the league. Honestly, the less said about Lupul the better.

Step number two in this blueprint is to totally blow the negotiations with the key piece of your core. Not a soul in the world would argue Ryan Smyth was the engine that drove this team for years (although some have argued there are nicer engines out there). Kevin Lowe managed to overpay a bunch of cogs in the machine and avoid the engine in the year before the engine hit free agency. 'We'll negotiate in the summer' Lowe told Smyth, predicting Smyth would not continue to build on his consistently strong career. After Lowe signed Staios early into the season, Ryan Smyth declared he would not take a home town discount this time (a lie.) Lowe began to panic at Smyth's increasingly impressive goal total (one night he racked up 3 in a shorter time span than any Oiler in history, gaining his rightful place among Oiler greats) and implied they should negotiate in-season. The Smyth camp accommodated this suggestion but the two sides weren't moving a lot from their initial positions. Having already abandoned his plan of resigning Smyth in the off season, Kevin Lowe decided to go a step further and insist that if Ryan wasn't signed before the off season, he would have to be traded. Although practically a smart plan, it wasn't necessarily a necessity. The Oilers would undoubtedly have the high ground in an FA chance, and besides, they still had until July 1 before he hit free agency. Both sides were motivated to keep Ryan in Edmonton.

Kevin Lowe made the call and traded Smyth for some mid level prospects.

Now I don't believe in all the talk about Edmonton not being a desired location to play, but sending the heart and soul (and one of the most popular players in the league) of your team off with a bad taste in his mouth probably didn't ease over any image problems Edmonton has with NHLers.

Anyway, the final step involves the lack of ability to improve the team in any meaningful way. I'll be the first to admit that trading Smith (nooooooooooooo!) and Lupul (good riddance) for Pitkanen and Sanderson is probably a good move simply because Pitkanen is the best player in the deal; however, does it feel to anyone like a token move, meant only as a way to make it look like Lowe is doing something...anything.

If you look at balance sheet, Edmonton traded Chris Pronger, Ryan Smyth, Jason Smith for Smid, Pitkanen, Sanderson, Nilsson, O'Marra, Nash, Plante and a couple 2008 picks.

Have I got that right?

There has better be one hell of a rabbit coming out of that 2008 draft hat, or this is one of the worst series of deals in hockey history.

Not to mention all the talk after the Smyth trade about 'needing a better top guy than Ryan Smyth.' That talk is all well and good, but let's examine the reality. The Oilers had the ability yesterday to pick from a variety of top level guys that are arguably better than Ryan Smyth. Who did they end up with?

Michael Nylander.

Now I have no particular issues with Michael Nylander, I've met him, he was a really nice guy, he can clearly put up the points. But is he a better top guy than Ryan Smyth?

If you're going into the trenches day in and day out, who would you rather have on your side?

It wouldn't surprise me either if Nylander was signed to a contract close in numbers to the contract Ryan Smyth offered up Edmonton way back in February. Maybe not in length, but in dollars/year.

Not to mention the Oilers are already stocked on centers. Perhaps this signals another future move, sending Moreau or Horcoff or Stoll out for a winger.

The engine's already gone, why bother keeping the cogs?

And that is a quick overview of how you quickly dismantle a great team without any rebuilding plan.

Draft Triumphs

While 1997 was undoubtedly a disasterous draft year for the Calgary Flames, and at the very least a bad draft year for the Edmonton Oilers, each team has had pretty triumphant years as well.

In my estimation it was the Oilers' very first draft, way back in 1979, that was the most productive and most likely set the groundwork for the dynasty to come. With their first ever pick (21st overall) the Oilers selected their current GM, Kevin Lowe.

With their second (48th overall) pick, the Oilers selected some big gangly Edmonton kid named Mark Messier who turned out to be not a bad hockey player, ending his career with the second highest point total in the history of the NHL.

With their 3rd pick, (69th overall) the Oilers selected the man who often play wingman to Messier and would end his career 2nd in playoff OT goals and 5th all time in playoff winning goals.

Now THAT is a draft year.

Calgary's best draft year in 1984 is arguably better than the Oilers in 1979, as they not only identified the top end talent, but also garnered depth guys (and had more successful NHLers). Gary Roberts was selected 12th overall by the Flames, and to put his value in perspective, there is some speculation former Ottawa GM John Muckler got fired due to his inability to aquire Roberts for this post-season. Over 20 years after Roberts was drafted.

Calgary picked Paul Ranheim with the 38th overall pick, a guy who turned out to be a very servicable NHLer, playing in over 1000 games.

The Flames got their most talented player (from that draft) 117th overall. He was a chubby kid which is why he was drafted so late, and he really only played part of two seasons with the Flames before he was traded for a key part of the Flames '89 Cup run. Brett Hull ended up scoring 741 goals in the NHL (including a notorius cup winner) and is third all time on the goals scored list.

With the 159th overall pick, Calgary selected european league player Jiri Hrdina. Hrdina could never be described as a star, but he was one of the first few Czechoslovakia born players to cross into the NHL, drafting him was alone a big risk for Calgary. He was a defensive specialist that was a +19 the year the Flames won the cup, and ended up winning 3 Stanley Cups in playing only 250 games.

Finally, in round 9, 180th overall, the Flames picked someone who was destined to be one of the best American born defenceman ever, one of the dirtiest players ever, and Al MacInnis' long time defensive partner. Gary Suter won the Cup with Calgary in '89, played over 1000 games and scored almost 850 pts.

Oilers' Options Running Out

With the Flyers trading for and signing both Kimmo Timonen and Scott Hartnell, the Oilers have missed out on two of the top leading candidates for reinforcement positions. Many Oilers fans around the blogosphere had speculated that Hartnell would replace Ryan Smyth on the top line. Back at LT's, many even drew up line combinations with Scott Hartnell as a 'best case' scenario. In that case, best case just went out the window.

Timonen was certainly a nice potential option on defence. AOTR had a nice post up about Timonen's game impact with a comparison to various other '#1' defenceman, and I think they proved pretty well that Timonen stacks up very nicely.

LT has also been predicting that Lowe would make some sort of a splash at the draft, and I have no reason to disagree with him. Lowe's job is very much on the line, and his options are running out.

Some possible predictions for draft day (and July 1st) and probability of event happning:

Brad Richards is traded to Edmonton (30%) I agree with LT and others that his albatross of a contract has made him a trade target. Plus it would be a huge splash on the level of Peca+Pronger.
Upside - Oilers get one of the best players in the league
Downside - The Oilers pick up an albatross contract and lose a very good players as well

Scott Gomez is signed by Edmonton (50%) - His speed and playmaking ability make him a typical Oiler prospect. The fact he played on a defensive team shows he's MacTable (whatever that means)
Upside - Edmonton picks up a very very good playmaker who I would also consider a playoff performer.
Downside - Gomez may take up more cap space then his ability justifies. Think $6 million or so.

Joni Pitkanen is traded to Edmonton (35%) - Aquiring Timonen makes a move of another Philly defenceman more likely
Upside - Young, relatively cheap puck moving defenceman
Downside - large potential to give up a lot of assets and get an over-rated guy in return, + an add on albatross (Hatcher)

Wade Redden is traded to Edmonton (50%) - One year left on his contract, Ottawa potentially wants roster shakeup
Upside - Oilers get a two-way defenceman who reignites the Oiler offence and steadies the defence
Downside - Oilers could also get a guy who tends to lose often and is best when the rest of the team picks up his slack, also, the price may be high

Ryan Smyth is signed by the Oilers (1%) - Ryan somehow forgives and forgets, comes home.
Upside - The Oilers get their heart and soul back, Lowe looks like genius (again?)
Downside - None, unless the Oilers sign the Mullet for 6+

The World Has Gone Crazy

Over the last couple of days I've just been trying to consolidate all of my thougths about Smytty leaving Edmonton. The press conference yesterday, which I listened to live, was absolutely heartbreaking, especially when Ryan said he wanted to bring the Cup back to Edmonton because 'that's where my heart is.' I know that this was a money deal (on both sides) pure and simple, but it doesn't make it any easier. I'm 23 years old, and although Gretzky inspired me to take up hockey at an early age, Smytty has been my main inspiration for a long portion of my life. I keep thinking back to this hilarious advertisement in the early 2000s (I think) where Ryan Smyth worked at a car dealership (Chevy I'm pretty sure) and it showed him in his various exploits, including stickhandling a ball around the showroom where the manager showed up and told him 'No hockey in the showroom Ryan!!' This is the same guy that was crowded around his family on Olympic decision day in 2001, when Lowe phoned him and asked 'are you nervous?' to which Ryan tried to remain cool by replying 'should I be?' If memory serves he cried tears of joy that day too. If anyone can think of a man who has been there for his country in international competitions more than Smytty be sure to let me know. The only name that comes to my mind is Gretzky.

But as Smytty said, he has to move on and start a new chapter and so do I.

How wierd does that look? About as wierd as this.

No, not Iggy high fiving his teammates...THIS!

Not only was it the first shoot-out win of the season, but a 2-1 victory? When is the last time we saw one of those? Of course, against the Wild, always think low, but still.

I actually thought the team played pretty well except for a couple of guffaws. The Yelle penalty was kinda BS, I thought there should have actually been a Wild one on the play (against Radavoyahaslamalamadingdong?). Brad Stuart managed to get beat on a 1-2 play, so the soon to be California-ite is still managing to look average at best (and what about the play in OT where he lost it right at the line? Protect the puck Brad!). He and Regehr still don't look comfortable with one another.

In my opinion, no player that wasn't on the roster last year will be more of a help in the playoffs than David Moss. Seriously, this guy plays a really simple style that has 'playoffs' written all over it. Its depth guys like him that play consistently and are willing to play in the dirty areas of the ice that make the difference. I especially like having a rookie, and I'm dead serious about this. New players have less bad memories and self doubt to infringe upon their current decisions. Think about Kipper's first playoff run, think about him now. Not that my point is proven, but its a theory that has credence.

Anyway, sorry for the disjointedness of this post, but I've been a little disjointed over the past couple of days. My friend and I are debating whether Smytty would rather we slit our wrists or drive a truck into a lightpole in his honour. A little post-Smytty-era humour there (or is it?)

Live by the Smytty, Die by the Smytty

Ryan Smyth practices with his Team Canada teammates at FDB before the 2005 World Championships

Ryan Smyth is the Edmonton Oilers. His presence on the team since rookie season has been exemplified by grit, determination, tips, heart and mullets (sorry, Moulets). I remember in his first playoff series versus Dallas, Doug Weight was taking a lot of heat because he couldn't put the puck in the net. 'Forget about Weight,' I said, 'this Smyth guy is going to be the leader of the Oilers.' He was the Oilers' best player in that series, and there has been very few times since then that he wasn't the Oilers' best player.

The Oilers as an organization have never been timid about trading anybody. Once Gretz was traded way back in '88 there has been a trend to get rid of top guys, oftentimes at or near the peak of their playing ability. Moose to the Rangers, Kevin Lowe to the Rangers, Weight to the Blues...so I do not for one second believe Lowe will hesistate on pulling the trigger on Smyth simply because of his name.

I feel though that the ramifications could be different this time around. There is something about Smyth (that I think maybe even Messier and Gretzky didn't have), that allows him to connect intimately with the City of Champions and arguably the whole of Alberta. Maybe its the fact that he's often been the one continuous bright spot on a lot of mediocre Edmonton teams over the past decade or so, or maybe it's the fact he's such an unassuming home town hero, or maybe it's because he's one of the first of the first generation of kids growing up cheering on the magnificent Oiler teams of the 80s to actually make the team. How many kids can say Glenn Anderson ran them over and it was one of the best days of their childhood life?

Kevin Lowe's success with the Oilers as management has often come on the coattails of Ryan Smyth. Kevin Lowe's success internationally has often come on the coattails of Ryan Smyth. In essence, Kevin Lowe, and the Oilers, live by Ryan Smyth.

During last season's playoff run, I believe it was the day after Smyth scored his famous toothless winner, Kevin Lowe admitted something to the effect that he understood Smyth's value to the team and the community, and that if he traded Smyth, he would become the least popular man in Edmonton. And how.

Here's what I expect will happen:

a) If Kevin Lowe signs Smyth, no one will blame him if the team fails. People are too emotionally connected to Smytty to have the hindsight to say 'we should have traded Ryan.' I think there are people in the city who would rather lose with Smyth than win without him.

b) If Kevin Lowe trades Smyth AND fails to resign him in the offseason, he will either; resign (Oilers GMs have a habit of fading away rather than burning out) or be fired if the Oilers fail to make the playoffs in the following season. At best Lowe will probably receive a 1st round pick (probably a late 1st round) and maybe a half decent prospect that will not be ready for the NHL by next season's start. Even if its a generally good deal several years down the road (think Fleury being traded for Robyn Regehr) it will be too late for Lowe. The revolt will have long happened and the patrons of Oil Country will have vanquished theirGM.

Such that Lowe has staked so much of the Oilers and his success on Ryan Smyth, his future now resides with Ryan Smyth. Lowe and Meehan (Smytty's agent) are meeting on Saturday, and I for one am not even moderately confident a deal will get down. But I at least hope Lowe understand the ramifications of failure.

Going on a quick vacation this weekend so I won't have another post up until Monday at the earliest. Hopefully Ryan is a confirmed Edmonton Oiler for life by then.

** Fingers Crossed **

Sportsnet is reporting, according to a 'report in the Sun' that Smytty has been offered a deal between a 4-6 year deal for approximately $5 million a season. Sounds like he'll be looking it over today. $5 million is less than I would expect Smyth would sign for, but I'll keep my fingers crossed.

Terry Jones of the Sun
sportsnet.ca

Personally, I'll hold off joy until it's been confirmed he's signed.