9 Games

The news has come down today that Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano and Robert Nilsson (as well as JF Jacques and Kyle Brodziak) have made the Oilers' opening night roster, while Ladislav Smid, Patrick Thoresen and Zach Stortini have been sent down to the minors, this raises a number of questions.

Firstly I think we have to ask whether these three players are truly ready for the big show. While I have strong feelings about Cogliano being ready for the bigs, at least in a small role, and think it's reasonable to try out Nilsson, it seems like there could be ulterior motives for Gagner making the team.

Now I have been regularly singing Gagner's praises. I loved his fight in his first World Junior tryout, and obviously he had a fantastic Super Series. Gagner however only had a mediocre World Junior tournament, and it's obvious he matured significantly in that 8 month gap, both physically and mentally. The question to me is whether he has matured enough from dominating mediocre 20 year old Russian players to be good enough to be a good player in the NHL (let alone an impact player). I didn't get to see him when the Oilers came to the 'Dome, but I know his preseason numbers weren't overwhelming.

So was the motivation to put Gagner in because he is ready for the NHL (or close) or was the motivation to put Gagner in the lineup because management is hoping he is ready for the NHL? Kevin Lowe is still trying to desperately keep his head above water and having his 07 1st rounder arrive to the big show early would be great 'proof' he's doing his job well.

Adding fuel to the fire, a 'typical' MacT guy, Patrick Thoresen, has been a victim of this training camp competition and has been put on waivers to be sent down to the AHL. It's a move that forces idle observers like me to at least raise the question.

Now Gagner, as well as Nilsson and Cogliano, have 9 games to prove they belong on this club.
I think Bob McKenzie explained it best:

Now it's up to Gagner to prove what he can do against NHL talent in NHL regular-season games. The Oilers will evaluate him over the course of nine games played – by him, not the team – and decide before his 10th game whether they want to burn the first year of his contract or return him to junior and have the contract kick in next season. Even if Gagner plays 10 or more games, it does not count towards a year of pro service for the purpose of determining free agency down the road unless he plays in 41 games, or a half season.

So the Oilers have plenty of time - before his 10th game and again before his 41st game – to make a call on where he's best to play this season, both from a development and business point of view. (Source)

update: I think BD highlights the the important question regarding Ladislav Smid's send down:

Of course sending Smid out just emphasizes what a complete joke last fall was when they played him with Staios on the second pairing rather then paying a little bit of money for a veteran Dman and letting Laddy get his feet wet on the third pair or playing big minutes in the AHL. The kid is likely going to be a good Dman but the handling of his situation has been a farce since day one. (Source)

Could Smid's early callup been a result of Lowe trying to prove his return for Pronger was decent?

Obviously there's a huge potential I'm way off on this, but I still feel these are questions worth asking. In 9 games we'll have an idea of the answer.

Hope springs eternal and then explodes in your face

Well, the Oilers beat the Wings tonight despite playing a night earlier and teetering on the edge (of the playoffs and mentally I would think). Overall a pretty impressive effort by the Oil in a game where they looked out of it by about the 10 minute mark of the first period. This is the third time the Oilers took it to OT on this road trip and the first they managed to end it in their favour. It makes you wonder what the standings would look like now had the Oilers managed to squeeze an extra point out of the Sens and Sabres.

But that's the thing about the Oilers isn't it folks? About this time of year (every year) they look like they're completely out of the picture, and then they slowly crawl and spit and fight their way back into the picture, and then usually, abruptly drop out again.

So what should Oilfans expect this year in terms of the end result? I still see misfortune this year. Despite the Flames absolute best effort to ensure the Oilers make the playoffs, the Oilers are still 5 points back of the 8th spot, and the Flames have a game in hand. And also, its hard to imagine the Flames playing much worse than they are right now.

But, as I mentioned earlier, the Oilers still have 5 games against Minny, 2 against the Flames and there are still 21 games left so nothing is out of the question.

For now though, Pouliot and Thoresen, the replacement centres for Moreau and Stoll, have been performing admirably. Thoresen set up 2 in the win tonight, while Pouliot had a nifty move around Hasek to set up the tying goal. Pouliot especially is being rewarded by MacTavish in terms of icetime, playing 18:35 tonight, about a shift longer than Hemsky.

Another promising sign for the Oilers was the return of Fernando Pisani and Daniel Tjarnqvist. I forgot how much I missed Tjarnqvist back there-on this defensive group he is a true stabilizing force. Both guys played limited ice time but ended the game a +1, and undoubtably were a key component to the win tonight. Gene Principe interviewed Ethan Moreau during an intermission, and Moreau said he would be back 'next month.' I hope this is implying he will be back sometime next week, in March, rather than he will be back in about 30 days. Given that Moreau accompanied the team on the roadtrip, I am assuming he means the former.

As for Smytty news- there is no news. Is that good news?