Don't Forsake the Oilers, or God Will Forsake You

Life in Oiltown has been pretty god damned sour since the 07 trade deadline (actually it started before that but let me get to my point before you shoot down my poorly constructed introduction). The Oilers traded away Ryan Smyth for Nilsson and O'Marra, then in the summer traded the promised one, Joffrey Lupul after an extremely subpar year (or average depending on how you crunch the numbers). Finally, not even Michael Nylander would sign with the club, even after saying he would, choosing the Washington Capitals (!) instead.

I used to say that Smytty was hockey Jesus and when he wanted to talk to his father he would look up high into the lights of the rafters and signal the man upstairs...Lowe. Well I don't know if it's Lowe or God or just karma but those that hath forsaken Edmonton have had some plagues blasted on their asses...or such.

A couple weeks ago, Joffrey Lupul (public enemy number 8 or so, behind Pronger, Comrie, etc) took a much publicized hammering from, off all people, his teammate, the apparently not so useless Derian Hatcher (public enemy number 4 in Edmonton...well that hit probably dropped his wanted status down to 15 or so). Firstly, what the hell was Hatcher thinking, he hasn't layed a hit in YEARS, probably because he's too slow to line anyone up. Then when he finally decides to thrown down he nails his teammate, giving him a bruise to the freaking spine. What a champ.



I'm sure other Oiler fans like me (sadistic ones) cracked just the smallest smile when that happened. I mean, I hope Lupul is eventually better, but he was having a great season and making all of us doubters look like morons. Nothing like a little freak injury to set that bastard back in his place! (I'm joking of course...).

Next up we can talk about Ryan Smyth. I think disappointment is probably an appropriate word in terms of describing his performance this year, which dipped from regular to poor thanks to injuries. I think it's far too early to say Lowe was at least correct in assessing Smytty's games/year potential, but certainly Smyth's year is not looking up. Out till mid February, his centerman Joe Sakic is out even longer. Ouch.

Now finally we come to Michael Nylander, the man who despised Edmonton so much he went to the (former) murder capital of North America. I mean, honestly, how bad can cold weather and perogies be? This was a really strange situation, and I'm not sure who's to blame - Kevin Lowe, Michael Nylander, Michael Nylander's agent, or the sweet alluring puppy dog eyes of Alexander Ovechkin, but this was simultaneously a slimey and welcome move. The slimy is obvious, (how can you make a deal with one team and then somehow reneg on that deal, it's like a mini-Pronger move), but the welcome is the fact Nylander is no replacement for Ryan Smyth and is a move in the wrong direction for this team.

Now of course if there was any real justice in life Pronger wouldn't have a Cup, Lowe might not be fired but he certainly wouldn't have a contract extension, Smyth would be playing for the Oilers and Ty Conklin would've been playing like a madman in June 06 rather than now.

But as LT has said many times, this year is about moral victories.

Coincidentally, the Oilers are playing the Caps tonight. Check out Japer's Rink and A View From the Cheap Seats, because besides the fact the Oilers get to see those snappy new Caps jerseys, many Capitals bloggers have been given press passes because Ted Leonsis believes in the power of blogging. I wonder if Katz feels the same way?

Fun Fact: The Washington Capitals refuse to pay overnight shipping to equipment manufacturers, preferring to save money by having products sent ground.

We need a miracle from Ken Lowe

A long time ago, I wrote about the loss of Ethan Moreau and the effect it could have on this team. At the beginning of the season, or near beginning, the Oilers were adrift in the seas of 'quality forwards' they aquired over the years. The lineup looked something like this:


Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky
Pisani-Stoll-Torres
Sykora-Moreau-Lupul
Reasoner-Thoresen-Winchester

Now, if you looked at that lineup today, it would not have the same sort of status as when the season started. Lupul never turned into the feared sniper we thought (hoped?) he would, Sykora's play wass about as mediocre as it ever was, Winchester never took that extra step etc etc etc. Bear in mind, the lines also looked a lot different, but given the way the season has gone I doubt there would be many that would argue the top two lines listed are pretty solid, the third is adrift no matter what, and the 4th would have been at least interesting. So as long as we're dreaming we might as well dream of optimum combinations.

Granted, this forward lineup never became as feared or as punishing as it 'should have,' but in my opinion, looking at this lineup today, it's still a very solid group from top to bottom. Hemsky and Smyth playing together are about as effective as any twosome, Pisani, Stoll and Torres provide a nice mix of smarts, toughness and scoring touch, Moreau compliments Lupul and Sykora's skill with some toughness and defensive responsibility, and the third line has a lot of smarts and also some toughness. And in fact, the Oil were doing pretty well with this lineup (if I could figure out how to look up their record at the time I would, but I recall some degree of success).

However, the loss of Moreau, in my opinion, was the beginning of the end of the Oiler's season. My earlier post referred to the loss of leadership and consistency Moreau brings every night to this franchise. I predicted Smith, Staios, Smyth, Horcoff and Stoll (I didn't mention Pisani but in my opinion he fits in that group) would pick up the slack, and I think for a time they did.

Then Smytty got hurt. Arguably the nose dive started around the time they lost to Anaheim at home in a game they should have won, but when Smytty went down about the only positive to emerge was Jarret Stoll's consistent play.

Smytty comes back, and Staois goes down.

Staois comes back, Stoll goes down.

Stoll does not come back, Pisani goes down.

So now the Oilers are out on full forward line consisting of some of their most consistent and effective players, down 3 key leadership guys, down a depth defenseman (my first mention of the mysterious Tjarnqvist injury) and they're expected to go on a 7 game road trip and save the season.

Excuse my pessimism, but good luck guys.

Obviously, our lack of defence has hurt. Losing Pronger, Spacek, Samsanov and Peca has hurt. But I believe this team had the personel required to squeek into the playoffs (at least) at the beginning of the season. The core of this team, of which painstaking care was taken to keep intact, has been rattled with injuries, and to expect success while missing several key guys over prolonged periods is unrealistic.

So unless Ken Lowe can work miracles with Stoll and Pisani, this team isn't heading anywhere besides the golf course.

5/5 = Playoffs

While the odds of the Edmonton Oilers actually making the playoffs is dwindling faster than Sean Avery's chances of winning the Lady Byng, the faithful still believe there is a Lloyd Christmas dating Mary Swanson chance of making it. And while Scarlett at Only Oil has come up with a number I agree with, I would like clarify it even further.

The Oilers play the currently in 8th place, the Minnesota Wild, a total of FIVE times over the last 30 odd games of the season. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that if the Oilers can take all 5 games in regulation, they will squeak into the playoffs for a second straight year.

In fact, taken another way, the future of this year's Edmonton Oiler team is more in their hands than perhaps any other season before. Of the final 27 games of the season, including tonight's against the Thrashers, the Oilers play, 10 of them are against Northwest opponents, 13 against Western Conference teams currently ahead of them in the standings.

Of course, actually winning those games will depend on a couple key factors:

1. Will Jarret Stoll return from his headache break? Oil fans are holding their breath waiting for this mid season Oiler MVP to get back into the lineup after taking a stick to the helmet. If you're thinking about Tim Connolly it may be a bit premature, but not out of the question.

2. Will Smytty sign and carry this team into the playoffs? He's done about everything humanly possible to keep this team in the black and the Oilers have no hope without him.

3. Will the Oilers make a trade for a depth defenceman, or will Tjarnqvist return? The Oilers cannot afford any more callups on defence. They're shaky enough as it is with their current lineup.

4. Can Sean Horcoff continue his recent strong play? Since being reunited with Smyth and Hemsky the never say die centre has been able to return to doing the simple things right. His defensive zone coverage has totally turned around and he's been buzzing around the opposition net a lot more.

5. Lupul-Pouliot-Sykora - Will these three step up, or step out?

6. Buyers or sellers? I'm not of the opinion the Oilers are either. I think they have a good group in general and keeping the core together for next year is of the utmost importance. Its not worth it for them to give up a solid player like Raffi Torres for a rental guy that most likely won't be able to impact this team enough to create any short term success. On the other hand, I don't think its necessary to unload guys like Jason Smith for prospects as I believe he still fits in with the gameplan for next season.

7. The defence is still undermanned. That's not a question.

I think in general, these are the questions Oilers fans will see answered over the course of the next two-three weeks, and the answers will determine whether or not the Oilers can put together enough solid games to beat the teams they need to in order to reach the playoffs. That was a very convoluted sentence, but you get the idea.

At its very core, this season will come down to simple math: 5/5 = playoffs.

Re-united and it feels so good! (Part II)

Ironically, I actually couldn't find a picture of the three of them together, but we can pretend that's Horcoff in the background

Although I wrote my last piece on the re-uniting of Iginla and Conroy in Calgary, another distinctive group on the other side of the province was re-united last Saturday and has had considerable success. Horcoff has had an up and down year (mostly down) and Smyth has had a personal up year (even if team success has eluded this Oiler group), but together they simply haven't been able to click they way they did in all last year (regular season and playoffs). Their missing piece, Ales Hemsky, had been relegated to playing with Petr 'One Timer' Sykora, thanks to some early season chemistry between the two. However, the production between Hemsky and Sykora had dwindled down to almost nothing since Hemsky got hurt late in the '06 calendar year, and this team was running out of options.

The trio was briefly re-united in the New Year's eve game against Calgary, but MacT re-shuffled the deck soon after and Hemsky was sadled with not just one under performing Czech, but two, as Hemsky, Nedved and Sykora joined together as the laughably ineffective 'Czech line' or more aptly, the 'No Check' line.

Last Saturday though, in a game vs. the L.A. Kings, Hemsky, Horcoff and Smyth were re-united for an entire game, and boy, did they make a case to stay together. Scoring all 4 goals (Smyth 2, Hemsky 1, Horcoff 1) and accounting for 11 of 12 points in the game, the line dominated the whole game, and was the undeniable difference between winning and losing.

Hemsky found Smyth again on Wednesday's game vs. Columbus, and Hemsky and Smyth came together to find Sykora for the winner.

Against Columbus, the line shot blanks. But if MacT had any doubts about keeping them together for the rest of the season, tonight's Avalanche game should have erased them. Read the scoresheet.
G1. Hemsky (+2 1a)
G2. Smyth (+1, 1a)
G3. Horcoff (+1, 1a, 1GWG)

The trio was on for every goal for, except for the first goal in which Horcoff was off. Undeniably, the group was responsible for the 2pts in the win column.

Now if Stoll can shake off the cobwebs the Oilers have a chance at two consistently effective lines, (and for a further stretch, Lupul looks like someone lit a fire under his ass, its possible he, Sykora and Nedved can turn into hockey players...and if not, at least their suck won't rub off on anyone else).