You Win Some, You Lose Some

A lot of thoughts keep running through my head after last night's game, they're scattered but I'll do my best.

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RudyKelly was pretty prophetic with his tirade against Thornton bashers. I partially agree with him; for some reason 'showing emotion' usually means losing composure, and that's not really a great leadership quality. Some guys lead by yelling and breaking teeth, some lead by playing smart hockey. I don't think there's one right way. Joe Thornton's play at the end of the game, domination along the boards leading to good puck possession and movement lead directly to the goal which he tipped in. He did it all. He can't be that good all the time, and it's unreasonable to have that expectation. IMO his linemates aren't that great and sometimes it's hard to soar with the eagles when you fly with turkeys.

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Calgary did just about everything right in the first period - scored a goal, kept the opposition chances to a minimum, played with speed. The 2nd and third period were different stories, despite tying San Jose in the 2nd, the Flames were starting to get overwhelmed. Craig Conroy takes yet another stupid penalty, the Sharks tie it up. The third was even worse - it was white knuckle hockey at it's best, or worst. The Shark's 2nd goal was a bit lucky, but one hell of a shot by Cheechoo.

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I commented to a co-worker today that the Flames 'almost won.' He said to me, the Flames didn't almost win, they almost didn't lose. Couldn't have said it better myself - on Sunday night after the Sharks started to see the Flames come back, they played to not lose. Same with the Flames last night.

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The little things played a big part in this game, here's a few plays that I couldn't help but notice.

1) Craig Conroy, offensive zone hook. That penalty lead to the Sharks first goal. I know the Flames pulled ahead soon after, but a goal is a goal. Some penalties are legit to take, some are just stupid. This was just stupid.

2) In the third period the puck slides through the Flames crease; Miikka Kipprusoff puts his glove on it and slides his glove across the crease as he is poked and prodded. Eventually he realizes the referees are not going to blow the whistle (who knows why) so he plays it behind the net. The Flames cannot regain control and are forced to take a penalty. The Sharks don't score, but that's an extra 2 minutes down a man that the Flames could have pressured San Jose and maybe created some chances.

3) Kristian Huselius goes in on a 3-1 with Iginla and Langkow. He messes up the pass to Iginla, but recovers behind the net and centers a pass to Langkow who proceeds to hit th post. Both Huselius and Langkow believed it was in (it wasn't) and stopped playing. That could have put the dagger in San Jose's heart. Score that and the Flames more than likely win the series. Miss and you give the Sharks a chance to get back into it. Flames missed, the Sharks get back into it.

4) With about a minute to go in the game Huselius ices the puck; Iginla almost beats it out but apparently does not. Keenan knows the players out on the ice are tired but decides not to call a time out. It's easy to say it was the right call now, but it really was the right call, especially the way the Flames were panicking. Another subtle mistake by Keenan, having Huselius out there with just over a minute to go. I can forgive the Phaneuf /Hale pairing becausee Keenan was probably hoping that they could come off and Sarich/Regehr (the appropriate last minute pairing) would come on; I mean, you do need to put SOMEONE on the ice, and Phaneuf and Hale are probably the second best defensively (I would certainly put them both ahead of Aucoin and Vandermeer) but it really was the difference. Phaneuf obviously couldn't handle Thornton, possibly because of fatigue, possibly due to lack of ability, but quite simply put, he couldn't get the job done.

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This was the second time the Sharks scored a last minute goal this series because of poor bench management.

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Still, I remain pleasantly suprised by the Flames overall competitiveness. Excuse me for predicting a couple losses in a row to finish off the season, but in general it hasn't been as excrutiating as last year.

Kristian Huselius - "Juice"

Kent Nilsson’s true son. The slick Swede may just be the best stickhandler in the league, owns quite the wrist shot as well. Most talented Flame. Agile and calculating, reads offensive plays tremendously well. Was on for an important goal against in the playoffs, but I feel he wasn’t responsible. Potentially in the Keenan doghouse. Should receive more ice time. Not physical at all. Has a very high chance of at least starting the season on a line with Owen Nolan.

Calgary Flames vs. Detroit Red Wings - Pre Series Analysis cont

Forwards
Calgary
For the first time since Doug Gilmour, Joe Nieuwendyk, Gary Roberts, Theo Fleury and Lanny MacDonald played together, the forward group is Calgary's true strong point. From top to bottom, Calgary only has one or two real weaknesses (which I will get to later) while they have many many strengths. On the top line, Jarome Iginla is on his best PP/G season, and in my opinion, is playing the most effective hockey of his career. With him is his best buddy Craig Conroy, who has been somewhat of a revelation since he returned from La La Land. He's been very steady (that gaffe in SJ aside) and is on a near point a game pace. On the other side is the sublime Alex Tanguay, who reminds me a lot of Ales Hemsky. Sometimes you want to scream at him to shoot the puck, but most of the time he's just making really superb offensive decisions. Tanguay's biggest problem is that he's a bit prone to taking bad penalties, so the first year Flame will have to stay disciplined.

On the second line we have Daymond Langkow at centre. While early on in the year Daymond couldn't score to save his life, he came alive in November and continued on a torrid pace until now, netting 33 in the process. His winger is Kristian Huselius who is arguably the best puckhandler and pure goal scorer in the NHL (19.65 shooting percentage). Watching him is dizzying - he single handidly runs Calgary's PP, freezing opposition players with his moves and then drilling the puck in. MG mentions Huselius' PP prowess in his pre-series analysis as well, and I think it's a point the Detroit coaches will need to take home to shut down Calgary. The third member of this potent second line has varied from Matthew Lombardi to David Moss. They both play nice complimentary roles: Lombardi provides the line with top notch speed and a devastating forecheck, while David Moss is a true grinder. He goes into the ugly areas to get the puck and he loves scoring the ugly goal.

Calgary's third line has come alive in the last 10 games. Defensive specialists Stephane Yelle (king of blocking shots) and Marcus Nilson (who Calgary sorely missed in last year's playoffs) have been paired with Jeff Friesen or Tony Amonte. It's hard to say who has been the bigger disappointment for Calgary, but have had very low expectations, and both have actually played below expectations. But for whatever reason, Jeff Friesen's play has been steadily improving since late December-early January, and now is a positive force on the team. Tony Amonte is probably Calgary's worst player - he's mediocre defensively and he's lost any touch he ever had around the net. A friend of mine has coined a statistic that applies only to Amonte - SAG (shots at goal). This refers to the fact Amonte almost always misses the net.

Calgary's fourth line is a bit of a jumble right now. Wayne Primeau has been the oft-centreman of this line, and his physicality is something this team sorely needs up front. He's been joined by a bunch of wingers: Tony Amonte (spoken about already) whose true place IS on the 4th line, Byron Ritchie, who has had a very respectable season and who probably deserves more ice time (but who many speculate is hurt). Darren McCarty, the former Red Wing (and Wing fan favourite) has been hurt with a 'groin' problem for most of the season, but last year saved his best for the playoffs. He appears to be ready to go and could be a nice energy guy on this line. Eric Godard is Calgary's enforcer, and while he has limited hockey skills, he KO'd Derek Booguard, and if utilized will keep Detroit's players guessing.

In terms of weaknesses, Calgary has two, both of which I have touched upon already. Tony Amonte is one, and Calgary's best chance is to hide him on the 4th line. Calgary's lack of physical forwards is #2. While Primeau has been consistent, the rest of the Calgary forwards have been pretty much MIA. If Calgary is to beat Detroit, this trend must be reversed. Jarome has to throw his weight around, same goes for Langkow and Moss. The third line doesn't have to hit, but they must pester. Finally, Darren McCarty and Wayne Primeau can only play one way to be effective, and that way is physical.

Detroit
I can't analyze the Detroit forward with the same depth as the Flames forwards simply because I'm not as familiar with them. However, there are some key players who I think will be difference makers in the series. This list starts first and foremost with Henrik Zetterberg. In my opinion he was the most consistent Red Wing in the playoffs last year, he lead the team in goals this year and will have to be a top 3 player for Detroit to win. His health is questionable though, and although it sounds as if he will start on Thursday, one has to wonder if he is truly game shape ready. Second on the list is Pavel Datsyuk, the best regular season player Detroit has. I say regular season for the well publicized fact that Datsyuk has so far not been able to keep his game together in the playoffs. He has the reputation of being soft, and if Detroit is going to win this series, Datsyuk must be a positive factor.

On the second line, Robert Lang only had a so so season, and Todd Bertuzzi has been shuttled in to help get that second line going. Whether you love or hate Bertuzzi, he has been a Flame killer in the past. There have been many a game against Vancouver in the past that Bertuzzi has used to mesmorize Flames defence with his strength and puck handling skills and almost singlehandidly beat us. Bertuzzi's health is a question mark as well though, and although he won't be expected to carry the team as he was in Vancouver, every game that he doesn't perform he will be put even further under the microscope. The pressure could definately get to him. As always, Tomas Holmstrom will be standing in front of Kipper tipping pucks past him. He will score in this series, its only a matter of time.

When Daniel (Danny) Cleary played for Edmonton my friends and I would joke that he would only get going if the stadium music guy played some Celtic jig music, but the fact is that Cleary has been a nice little rescue project for the Red Wings. His second half has been extremely mediocre, but he could provide some secondary scoring for Detroit in this series. Kyle Calder has had a statistically terrible season, but he looked alright last year in the World Championships. I wouldn't expect a lot out of him though.

Of course we are going to see Maltby pestering anyone he can get his hands on, his stickwork matched only by his mouth. As always Kris Draper will be killing penalties, dishing out hits, and occasionally, scoring.

A couple of notables that are question marks to me are Mikael Samuelsson who got off to a roaring start last season but has cooled off considerably since, and Johan Franzen, a guy who Detroit blogs have been raving about.

Edge: Calgary
The Flames in my opinion have more depth and more proven guys, including the best forward in the series: Jarome Iginla. The Red Wings, although potentially very dangerous, have a lot of question marks. If those question marks are answered, Detroit could regain the edge.

Big Skates to Fill...

With Jarome Iginla out at least a week (lets face it, probably 3-4 weeks), the Flames will need multiple players to step out of the shadows of mediocrity and come to play every night. Byron Ritchie proved the other night that he is more than capable of filling and surpassing the role the disappointing Chuck Kobasew plays. Alex Tanguay had a 3 point night playing with Lombardi and Kobasew, but if Tanguay believes that takes him off the hook, he is dreadfully mistaken. Since Tanguay's dissapointing start to the season he has been criticized in the media for being nothing more than a supplemental scorer, first behind Sakic, and now Iginla. If there was any chance for Tanguay to prove he can handle the load, this is it.

Kristian Huselius is another man with a question mark after his name. As I've stated numerous times on this blog, I love how he plays, he's a very important member of this team; but can Juice make the most of tough first line minutes, or is his success due almost fully to the presence of Jarome Iginla taking heat from other team's top defenceman?

Will the hurt Daymond Langkow become invisible once his best friend in the whole world isn't around, or will he be able to prove that his impressive stats and sublime gameplay aren't just a biproduct of having Jarome Iginla as his wingman.

The hapless pair of Jeff Friesen and Tony Amonte will not be expected to step up, only because they've been so bad everybody has forgotten they used to be somewhat useful hockey players. Jeff Friesen called his last season in Anaheim 'an embarressement,' so one can only imagine the personal shame he's feeling now. Perhaps that shame is overcome by his hefty $1.6 million paycheque though, as Friesen continues to show very little heart or visible desire to be a help to this team.

Tony Amonte on the other hand, is nothing but hardwork, unfortunately it appears he no longer has the skillset neccessary to score goals. On last Thursday's game versus the Panthers, Amonte was given multiple chances to make a positive impact on the game. He received set up after set up but couldn't convert, although he did manage an assist on a pretty set up play by Warrener.

In my opinion, this is the list of people needed to step up if the Flames are to have success without their captain. Whether the Flames crash and burn like the Oilers without Ryan Smyth, or succeed like the Maple Leafs without Mats Sundin, is a question that will be answered very quickly.

D-Day

The Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks are the best team in the NHL today. Since day 1 of this NHL season they have been dominating, running off 25 wins, scoring more than every team in the league save one (Buffalo), and they have more points than any other team in the league. They show no signs of slowing, having the best record (8-2-0-0) in the league in their last 10 games.

Not that I think this is a particular suprise to hockey fans. After having won the Scott Niedermeyer sweepstakes thanks to an ace in the hole (Damn you Special Neids!) the Ducks (or more specifically Brian Burke) aquired the disgruntled Pronger from Edmonton, thus having locked up possibly the best 1-2 defensive group in the history of the NHL. Supergenius coach Randy Carlyle has determined playing them apart at about 25 minutes a night (usually more) assures that at any moment one of the two of Niedermeyer and Pronger are on at any one time, creating an unstoppable defensive force. Who is Pronger paired with? Who is Niedermeyer paired with? Does it matter? All apologies to Beauchemin and O'Donnel, but I'm pretty sure Zyuzin could play with Neids or Pronger and look like all-star material.

That is why the Flames' game against the Ducks tonight is of the utmost importance. Already Calgary has had what could be termed as huge success against the Ducks with a home shutout victory (1 of only 4 regular time losses the Ducks have accrued all season). But the Flames are no longer at home. The Flames are facing their nemesis - the road. With a road record hovering around .500 and 10 straight home wins, you can do the math and figure out the Flames are having a second straight Jekyl and Hyde season.

The current road trip has been much of the same, loss against division rival Canucks, but a win against the basement dwelling Coyotes. Tonight though, is the real test, D-Day, if you will. Tonight's game could become a turning point for the Flames this season; pull their proverbial shit together, beat the best team in the league and prove to themselves AND their critics they have what it takes to be the best, or fall back into old patterns of being good to great at home and terrible on the road, leading what could be another first round playoff flop.

To be fair, the Flames have a slapdash defensive group tonight, the pairings being Regehr/Ference, Phanuef/Giordano (hope Mark is ready for a 20+ minute night) and Regehr/Ference II (by the way, how wierd is that?) But there are always ways to find excuses, always ways to find reasons to win. The Flames need to find reasons to win.

As Rod Stewart sang, "tonight's the night." But will it be alright?

Keys to the Game

Shut Down Selanne - The Masterton Trophy winner has been a Flame killer in the past, and he's simply on fire this season. He is the key to the Ducks' offense.

Giggy vs. Kipper - Giguere couldn't get the job done in the playoffs last year but his record this year is a stunning 21-3-5 with a .922%. Kipper played very average against the Ducks in the playoffs but shut them out once already this year. He may need a repeat type performance for the Flames to win.

Secondary Scoring - Don't count on the Flames winning without at least a goal from a line other than the Iginla Langkow Tanguay one. Huselius has had his moments versus the ducks, in my opinon, he's the one to watch.

• check out Finny for the view from the opposition!