Thursday, August 28, 2008

Lubomir Visnovsky


I think even more so than Sheldon Souray we can think of Lubomir Visnovsky as that 'puck moving defenceman' that the Oilers coveted . Partly because Souray really isn't a puck mover at all even though he was sold to the public as one, but that's neither here nor there.

The truth is that Lubomir Visnovsky did not have a stellar season last year, even by LA Kings standards. The good news is that his last season is an outlier, not the trend.

05-06: 17G, 67PTS, 0.838PPG
06-07: 18G, 58PTS, 0.841PPG
07-08: 8G, 41PTS, 0.500PPG

As Jonathan Willis would say, 'one of these things is not like the other.'

I think it's unlikely to expect nearly a point a game pace from Visnovsky, but he'll get plenty of PP time with Sheldon Souray and I would expect his pace will increase from half a point a game.

Looking at his desjardins numbers from last year with the LA Kings it should become obvious why Lubomir Visnovsky should be played on the second defensive unit against the soft opposition.

His GFON was ok but his GAON was just awful, even for LA. Let's hope that was an anomaly as well.

The basic lowdown is that I think Visnovsky is going to have to be babysat a bit at EV or given really good teammates, because his value is going to have to come on the PP.

Projection: 2nd pairing defenceman
Key Stat: 13th overall in difficulty of opposition

4 comments:

dstaples said...

Only one thing worries me about Visnovsky -- his age. He's at the age where his drop in production could be part of an aging trend, and he will simply not recover the skills he had that led to his best seasons. This happens all the time with NHL players at Visnovksy's advanced age, so that tempers my optimism about the guy.

That said, smaller Rafalski-type defencemen do tend to last longer and play better than other types, such as the bigger, more physical Souray-model.

Showerhead said...

I clicked through from HF, read the first sentence about Souray as a puckmover and thought to myself a huge UH-OH. Thank goodness your second sentence and the rest of the post puts everything in perspective. Great post!

namflashback said...

Cap-friendly contracts are obviously a boon in terms of the dollars spent to performance -- but other than NYI and DET, who is regularly putting together a roster full of them?

NYI has probably gotten better performance (pts in standings) using the recycled player approach -- but is it sexy enough to put bums in seats? Is it sexy enough to land a Hossa as a UFA? Does it matter?

Would a disciplined "Moneypuck" approach work well enough and fast enough that a team could then apply a "Detroit's a perennial winner" type of management style?

I'm not sure it would for teams that are trying to get butts in seats, new arenas built, etc. And that's the scenario for most teams not named Detroit.

therealdeal said...

That said, smaller Rafalski-type defencemen do tend to last longer and play better than other types, such as the bigger, more physical Souray-model.

I think good skating defenceman in general can play at a higher level longer than forwards because it's such a thinking man's position. It's the Rhett Warreners and Jason Smiths of the world where age really takes it toll. I guess we'll find out soon enough, but I wouldn't exactly expect Visnovsky to outplay his contract over the duration. The next couple of years he could be ok value though.

Thank goodness your second sentence and the rest of the post puts everything in perspective. Great post! Thanks man, that was more a shot at management than anything.

Cap-friendly contracts are obviously a boon in terms of the dollars spent to performance -- but other than NYI and DET, who is regularly putting together a roster full of them?

It's not all about bang for you buck though either. You might be able to put together a roster of Glencross' (for instance)that outperform their contract, but they're still not good enough to win. To me the main importance of smart contracts is so you can aquire that player that puts you over the edge when you need it.