Dion Phaneuf

07-08 Prediction:

Had an up and down season in 06-07. Opposition began to compensate for Phaneuf’s presence on the blueline, but he still managed 17 goals, 4 game winners. Destroyed Denis Hamel early on in the year with a thundering check, but was quieter than his rookie year. Did not mesh well with Robyn Regehr. Ice time increased. Asked to play a pure shutdown/containment role for Canada in the World Championships, Phaneuf was nothing less than spectacular.

07-08 Evaluation:
Phaneuf's counting numbers continued their increasingly impressive rise to 17 goals and and 60 points. I don't think he had any single highlight reel hits this year but that's ok, I'm more concerned with his actual defensive presence.

I don't think there was any better illustration of Phaneuf's shortcomings than in the playoffs against San Jose. While there was no doubt he was contributing offensively (3G, 7PTS), it was nothing less than heart attack hockey seeing him go against Joe Thornton. It's unfair to accuse Phaneuf of not being strong enough, but quite frankly, he just couldn't handle Thornton, especially down low. There's no shame in that obviously, Thornton is one of the league's elite. It just appears that Phaneuf isn't, at least when it comes to defensive zone coverage. Not yet anyway.Looking at behindthenet.ca numbers I think we can get a bit of a year long illustration of what I'm saying. His offensive numbers are all stellar, (1st in GFON for defencemen, 1st in pts/60 for defencemen, etc). He's obviously a workhorse (1st overall in EVTOI/60) but I have to think that at least some of his totals are because of the fact he gets top notch teammates.

The disappointing part of the behindthenet.ca numbers come in the fact we can see he's facing 2nd tier opposition and not really stopping them from scoring goals. He's not even in the first half of defenceman in terms of opposition shutdown ability.

Right now Phaneuf is a very good defenceman, but if he ever hopes to win that Norris he was nominated for he needs to tighten up his defensive zone coverage.

Projection: number 1 defenceman
Key Stat: 1st for defenceman in GFON and PTS/60

Dion Phaneuf or Jay Bouwmeester

I've made it no secret that I am a Jay Bouwmeester fan. Way back in the early 2000s I had a fantasy trade made in my head for him: Jarome Iginla for Jay Bouwmeester and Roberto Luongo. Think the proposition was inane?

Remember this was when Bouwmeester was closer to 18 years old and Roberto was about 20. Iginla had just scored 52 goals and a gold medal in the Olympics. Eventually Luongo (probably the more valuable piece) went for Bertuzzi, and not even a Bertuzzi in his prime. Jay Bouwmeester will be gone next year; he's obviously unhappy in Florida.

Not sure if that trade would have really benefited the Flames. Iginla is still probably worth more than both of them - if he's not the best he's damn close. (Feel free to debate both these points).

Anyway, the point of all this background is that the other day MG brought up the possibility of Sutter going after Bouwmeester. He meets all of Sutter's criteria (from Alberta) except one (not old). In the comments section I brought up my personal bias that if I had to make the choice I would probably take Bouwmeester. MG argued that although Bouwmeester may be the better player, Phaneuf had the higher ceiling.

I decided to dig a little deeper to compare the numbers between these two defenceman. First, the counting numbers:


On first glance they look pretty close, but obviously Jay has played a couple of extra seasons, so we can take a look at counting numbers based on games played. As is plainly obvious, Dion outshines Jay at just about every opportunity. GPG, APG, PPG, SPG, +/-.


We can probably explain some of the difference thusly: Jay Bouwmeester plays on a terrible team, Dion Phaneuf plays on a pretty good team (that is admittedly going downhill.) How much does this affect account for the difference in counting numbers? Hard to say.

Now let's take a look at the Desjardins numbers. I went back to 06-07, Phaneuf's second year and Bouwmeester's third.

06-07 Behind the net numbers

One of the first things that jumps out at me is what a good comp these two make. Look at their even strength ice time totals; about 17 minutes a night each. We can also see that Phaneuf clearly played with better teammates - not surprising, Florida simply didn't have the players Calgary did. Bouwmeester also faced stiffer competition, if only just.

Also take a quick look at each players contribution to team point production. Bouwmeester actually had twice the +/-ON that Phaneuf did - and while the team had a better +/- when Phaneuf took a seat on the bench, Florida imploded when Bouwmeester wasn't on the ice. Bouwmeester actually had the second best ON +/- on the team (players with more than 10 games), next only to Jokinen. Bouwmeester had the team's best OFF+/-, meaning the team had the biggest drop in efficiency when he left the ice.

Phaneuf was 12th on the Flames in ON+/-. This is both due to the fact he had better teammates, but I would also bet it's simply because he's less effective at EV.

Now, Dion does obviously have a few positives. To start, the Flames drew more penalties when Dion was on the ice than Florida did when Bouwmeester was on(151 to 95) but they also took more (149 to 135).

Moving on to the 07-08 season we can see a couple changes. Bouwmeester has an extra minute and a half at EV, and while Phaneuf's competition and teammates have stayed about equal, Bouwmeester has begun to face much better opposition.

07-08 Behind the net numbers

The scoring breakdown begins to separate the two here as well. Phaneuf is putting pucks in the net at about twice the rate of Bouwmeester. They both make first assists at about the same rate (Phaneuf slight edge) but Phaneuf makes second assists at about twice the rate of Bouwmeester. Dion also holds an edge in GFON, and to my surprise, GAON.

I think in cases like this it's important to compare within the team rather than between teams, and in that regard Bouwmeester is ranked 4th in GFON, behind Horton, Booth and Weiss while he's ranked 6th in GAON. To note, his ranking between the two stats is 10th on his team, but on closer inspection he's playing significantly better competition than anyone ranked about him. He's number 1 on the team in terms of competition.

Phaneuf is ranked number 5 for GFON on the Flames, impressive considering the players ahead of him (Iginla, Langkow, Tanguay, Huselius). He is however ranked 17th in GAON, not so impressive. He's 8th on the team overall in the combined GF/GAON+/-. Phaneuf ranks 7 on the team in quality of competition.

What's the conclusion?

No idea really. They're obviously both great players and it's obvious Dion is scoring at a higher rate but it's hard to say whether that's purely due to his teammates or his skill. The Desjardins stats on these guys are also definitely affected by their coaches personal preferences and styles. It looks like Martin leaned heavily on Bouwmeester at even strength more so to shutdown thereby giving the skilled offensive guys the lesser competition to go against while Phaneuf is out there in a power vs power to try run and gun it out.

Personally, I think it's reasonable and even likely to suggest Phaneuf has a higher ceiling of offensive ability but in practice it looks like Bouwmeester has just been shouldered with a lot more defensive responsibility on a much weaker team. It would be interesting to see him on a line with Iginla and Langkow and until he gets those line mates I'm not willing to draw a line in the sand.

Fuck You Dion

Seriously though, I can't blame the guy. I'm just jealous.


You know, I would apologize about this post because I'd prefer to stay out of player's private lives altogether, but I'm pretty sure the both of them froliking in front of the cameras like that is just their way of mocking me.

Battle of Alberta Postgame - The Solid Time of Change

Down at the end, round by the corner.
Close to the edge, just by a river.
Seasons will pass you by.
I get up, I get down.

Once again I'm stealing a page off of Lowetide by introducing my topic with lyrics from a song, but I think that passage from Yes' album 'Close to the Edge' gives a little insight into both last night's game and this season in general for both the Calgary Flames and the Edmonton Oilers.

If there's one thing this season has done, it has brought the highest of highs and the lowest of lows, and yes, I get up, I get down.

For the Flames, I think this season has represented a step backwards. I don't think anyone can really argue this edition of the Flames is significantly better in any way than last year. I totally missed the boat when I predicted the end of the season for Edmonton, but I think I hit the nail right on the head when I predicted the end of the season for Calgary. They've been incredibly inconsistent, marking great games followed by brutal games, and brutal periods followed by absolutely fantastic periods (last Tuesday's game versus the Canucks in particular). Dion Phaneuf, Jarome Iginla, Robyn Regehr, Miikka Kipprusoff and Owen Nolan have played great over this final stretch. Phaneuf and Nolan in particular have been great in my eyes.

But this team just can't seem to be consistent. I've come to the same conclusion as Duncan, and MG; the Flames just aren't that good.

At the beginning of the season, a lot of fingers were pointed at Miikka Kipprusoff, and probably for good reason. But if you follow MG's blog at all, you can see his tracking of Miikka's SV%, and it has steadily improved, so I don't think you can point to that and claim that's why the Flames have been so average. I'm not sure you can even point to the top heavy leanings of this team, as Keenan barely even plays the 4th line most nights.

I don't know the reason, but the Flames just aren't that good.

Now, at the beginning of the year, if you'd have told me the Flames and Oilers would have an equal number of wins with only a handful of games remaining at the end of the year, I'd have called you an asshole and an idiot. (Why an asshole? Because I'm just that sort of person...). If you'd have told me they have done it while Stoll took two step backwards, Horcoff missed almost the entire second half of the season and Souray and Greene were replaced by Smid and Grebeshkov, well, I would've really thought you were stupid.

But here we are, and the unthinkable has happened. Watching the game last night, I couldn't help but think that these two teams are far closer in ability than most Calgary Flames fans are willing to admit. There were of course stretches w (especially in the second) where the Flames dominated, and that post at the end was pretty unlucky, but when you think about it, if Dwayne Roloson doesn't catch a pick in the ice, the game is even more out of hand. The one goal Calgary scored happened at least partly, and I would say mainly because Dwayne Roloson fell. Ouch.

And while the Oilers' have Souray's bloated contract to deal with, the vast majority of the team right now is young and cheap. Watching Fernando Pisani compete night after night I am convinced he is not overpaid, and I expect a lot of players for the Oilers will continue to get better; As an Oiler fan friend of mine said to me yesterday, there are some fun times ahead.

I think a lot of the difference between these two team's philosophies has to do with draft procurement. When you look down Calgary's roster, there aren't a lot of guys the Flames drafted. Dustin Boyd was drafted by the Calgary Flames in the 3rd round (98th overall) in 2004, Matthew Lombardi was drafted by the Calgary Flames in the 3rd round (90th overall) in 2002, Eric Nystrom was drafted by the Calgary Flames in the 1st round (10th overall) in 2002, finally, Dion Phaneuf was drafted by the Calgary Flames in the 1st round (9th overall) in 2003. David Moss was drafted by Calgary in 2001.

Take a look then at Edmonton's roster:
Kyle Brodziak - Drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the 7th round (214th overall) in 2003.
Andrew Cogliano - Drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the 1st round (25th overall) in 2005.
Sam Gagner - Drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the 1st round (6th overall) in 2007.
Ales Hemsky - Drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the 1st round (13th overall) in 2001.
Fernando Pisani - Drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the 8th round (195th overall) in 1996.
Marc Pouliot - Drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the 1st round (22nd overall) in 2003.
Jarret Stoll - Drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the 2nd round (36th overall) in 2002.
Zach Stortini - Drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the 3rd round (94th overall) in 2003.
Shawn Horcoff - Drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the 4th round (99th overall) in 1998.
Matt Greene - Drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the 2nd round (44th overall) in 2002.

To be fair, the Flames have identified a couple of other teams' draft picks early on; Jarome Iginla and Robyn Regehr were acquired before they had played a single NHL game. And part of the reason the Oilers have so many home grown picks playing on the roster is out of necessity.

When you look at home runs, Calgary arguably has the biggest, but Edmonton has scored a lot of triples (Hemsky, Horcoff), doubles (Pisani, Stoll), singles (Greene, Stortini) and a few guys that were lead offs and are still rounding the bases (Cogliano, Gagner, Brodziak). Calgary on the other hand has a one double who's near a triple (Lombardi), a single (Moss) and a couple guys who are still rounding the bases but are looking to be about a single (Moss) and hopefully a double (Boyd).

This is not to say that I don't appreciate what the Flames draft picks bring to the table, but I just think the Oilers have done an overall better job.

The playoffs are nigh, and I think we can pretty much count the Oilers out and the Flames in. However, I can't help but feel this season has passed the Flames by, while the Oilers have exceeded expectations.

I get up, I get down...

Calgary Flames: What Can We Expect?

I'm just sitting here watching Hockey Day in Canada and after the events of the past week or so I think the rest of the season is coming into focus for both Calgary and Edmonton, although tonight I will focus exclusively on Calgary.

Of note before I get into it is a conversation I had with a Flames compatriot at the Saddledome regarding Owen Nolan. After being a replacement Tony Amonte for much of the early season (as well as being injury prone), Nolan should be looked at as a pretty successful FA signing if he hits certain criteria. He's got 14G and I think 20G would be a respectable, he's on a pretty close pace. His ES quality of competition is ranked as 6th on the team (I'm going to ignore Ramholt), his CORSI is a +5.0 and he's got a On Ice/Off Ice/60 rating of 0.07, which although paltry compared to Iginla's +2.32, is at least on the positive end of zero. I think we can all agree that although Nolan might not be a captain on the ship, he's certainly not an anchor.

Ok, now onto what we can expect for the final quarter of the season:

A Trade:
MG at Five Hole Fanatics has done a lot of blogging about the Tanguay trade rumors, siding on the 'don't trade Tanguay' and the 'Tanguay is worth more than Huselius' side of the debate. So will Tanguay be traded? I think it was Duncan at Flames Blog who said that more than likely the trade that Sutter will make will be completely unexpected in terms of his target and who he trades. I'll agree. I think though that we can make a couple of statements with an near absolute certainty, and then I'll make a couple of completely speculative comments as well.

Firstly, I think I can safely predict neither Iginla, nor Regehr, nor Kiprussoff, nor Phaneuf will be traded. Secondly, the Flames will not acquire Petr Forsberg.

Now for the speculation: I agree with MG when he says that the Flames biggest problem is not the forward group, its the defence. There are two bonafied defenceman, a couple of guys who are not bad, and then some who are simply too injured or too terrible to be consistently counted upon. Would the Flames have the same record they do today if Giordano and Ference were in the lineup for Ericksson and Warrener or Hale? I know who I'd rather have, given the choice.

So we can speculate about Mats Sundin but for my money I'd rather have Sutter go after a solid defenceman to compliment the group.

Inconsistency:
I like watching Dr. Phil because I think it probably provides the most laughs per minute of any other scripted comedy show, but I think he's right when he says the best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour. Last year about this time the Flames went on a surge, and then they played terribly through March and then limped into the postseason and got worked by Detroit. This year had a terrible October and November, followed by an outstanding December and pretty good January, now a mediocre February. Can anyone tell me a reason not to expect inconsistency? We've already had the monthly 'Sutter visits the dressing room' event, and we'll probably see a few more.

The Dion Effect:
If there's one singular area where Darryl Sutter has excelled it's that he has very aptly identified the core of his team and rewarded them in terms of dollars. While Calgary's salary is extremely top heavy, it's at least going to the right guys. (Sutter's job identifying value in his perimeter players is less commendable). Now it's time for those core guys to step up. Besides Iginla, I don't think we've seen the other core guys' best this year. I think Regehr can play better, Phaneuf has truly stepped up his game in the past couple of weeks, and it's obvious Miikka Kiprusoff can play better. Alex Tanguay should be in that group too, and despite my concerns about him I know he can put a few more pucks in the net. There's no more money to spend this year, at this point the guys earning the big bucks have to prove they're worth it. It's not just about leadership now, it's about results.

The Goal:
There's been some talk of the goal as being finishing 1st in the conference, but make no mistake about it, the Flames have one single goal in the regular season: DO NOT FINISH 8th. Playing Detroit does not look like it's any better of a matchup this year than it was last year, and I am sure it doesn't matter if the Flames finish 2nd or 7th, the matchups will all probably be pretty even. Obviously the Stanley Cup is the ultimate goal, but after two consecutive first round losses, I think we can qualify this season as a success by winning a playoff round.

A Look Back: World Junior Championships 2006

Besides being a world class tournament in terms of entertainment, I've always felt the World Junior Championships gives a nice peak into the future in terms of the type and usefulness of particular players. As someone who follows Junior hockey about as closely as I follow soap operas, most of the names in the tournament are new to me, besides of course the guys that have hype follow them around like a lost puppy. This year I think we can safely say that the hype is primarily following John Tavares, the phenom who was drafted into the OHL at age 14 after being granted 'exceptional player status,' allowing him to bypass the usual minimum age of 16. He was cut from last year's junior team, the first time in his life he had been cut by a team. Last March he bested Gretzky's record of goals by a 16 year old in the OHL, scoring 71 in a season. This December he was named to the team. Despite this, the scouting reports have been a little bit mixed about Tavares; most agree that his vision and playmaking is very good, but there are a few questions about his skating, ala Brad Richards or Jason Spezza. Despite this, Tavares would probably go number one in this year's NHL Entry Draft, if he were eligible.

In the 2006 edition of the World Juniors I would have to say the hype really surrounded a couple of American kids, Eric and Jack Johnson (no relation). On Team Canada though, there was a lot of hoopla around a kid named Steve Downie, but for all the wrong reasons.

Direct from Wikipedia:

Downie was suspended for 5 games early in the 2005-06 OHL season for on-ice altercations with a teammate during practice. Downie blindly cross-checked and then fought teammate Akim Aliu during practice on September 28, knocking out 3 of Aliu's teeth. ^[1] The incident stemmed from 16 year old Aliu's refusal to take part in a hazing incident, which involved rookies being forced to stand naked in a cramped bus bathroom. The team suspended Downie for five games and Aliu for one, and Downie was told to undergo professional counselling. (Wikipedia)

The part of the story that Wikipedia didn't mention was how Downie was in a car accident when he was 8. His dad, the driver, was killed driving Downie to a hockey practice. In addition, Downie lost a lot of his hearing in one ear due to an unrelated condition. He was my favorite story that year.

He was a real pest to the opposition, drawing many many penalties. In the Gold medal game against the Russians he simply dominated Evgeni Malkin, both in terms of production (scoring the opener, also the winner) and in terms of the mental game. No one would ever accuse Downie of having more talent than Malkin, but his will to win that day was unmatched by anyone on either team. It was a real beauty to watch.

The 2006 edition of team Canada also brought in a couple of revelations for the Alberta teams, Calgary and Edmonton.

The 2004/2005 teams had featured Calgary's great white hope, Dion Phaneuf, doing his best Al MacInnis/Scott Stevens impressions. In the middle of the 2004 season, before the Flames glorious run to the final, a friend asked me if Phaneuf would be better than Leopold - better, I told him. He had so many tools to work with it was hard to see how Dion wouldn't be a force. I think Dion has got a little ways to go before he's truly one of the greats, but he still shows something every night that is impressive.

The 2006 edition didn't have a heralded prospect like Phaneuf for the Flames or Oilers, but as the tournament progressed, a skilled, speedy center stood out for Team Canada. Dustin Boyd was a guy I was pretty unfamiliar with, but a guy that constantly suprised me with his skill and thinking ability. He was not the prototypical Calgary draft pick - he wasn't that big, and he wasn't that strong - (to give you an idea of who the Flames were looking for, Chris Chucko was picked first for the Flames, then Brandon Prust, then Dustin Boyd).

There were some question marks about Boyd early in this season, he didn't have much of a chance to make the team with the overload of centers in the Calgary lineup. He was eventually called up, probably to shake things up, and he has not looked out of place. He has 2G and 1A in 13 games, including a real beauty against Carolina the other night, a real goal scorers goal, composure and all. He's playing over 10 minutes a game, more than Nilson, Yelle, Primeau, Smith and Godard. Boyd has a ways to go before being a real difference maker or even a regular NHLer, but he's certainly showing small flashes of brilliance at the NHL similar to what he showed at the World Juniors.

The Oilers, for their part, haven't really had a key player for Team Canada for a while. JD Deslauriers and Devan Dubnyk were invited to tryout camps but were non factors. Robbie Schremp never really made an impact with Team USA, except for causing some controversy. There was some reason to be optimistic about a speedy college player name Andrew Cogliano. Don Cherry lamented the fact the Leafs did not snatch Andrew Cogliano, choosing Tuukka Rask instead (then trading him away for Andrew Raycroft).

Cogliano was a guy I really liked as a player. Very hard working, very speedy - but one thing that he has shown in the NHL that he never showed in the World Juniors, was his finish. Cogliano in many ways reminded me of another speedy (ex) Edmonton Oiler - Todd Marchant. He was very defensively responsible, got a lot of breakaways, and rarely scored. He had 5 points in 6 games, scoring only 1 goal. Goals or not though, there was enough to like about Cogliano to think he could at least be a solid role player in the NHL.

As Edmonton fans now know, Cogliano is the real deal. He's a solid NHLer in many ways - 6G and 10A in 34 games, good enough for 4th on the team, despite being 18th in terms of icetime, playing only about 14 minutes a game. He's ranked 14th in terms of PP time, far behind the other three players ahead of him in points. He is however ranked about 14th in terms of quality of competition on the team, so the his points may be slightly inflated due to some softer minutes. The fact he has 2 SHG is extremely impressive.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like Flames and Oilers fans have much to scout at this years World Junior Championships, however, if you want a head start in watching tommorow's stars, tune in, December 26th, as Canada takes on the Czech Republic noon MST.

New Season, Same Result

So we're two games into the Calgary Flames 2007-2008 season and I feel like I've seen it all before. Don't get me wrong; last night's game vs the Canucks was wildly entertaining, and there were in fact some positives.

Cory Sarich's play was much improved. Sarich looked lost against the Philadelphia Flyers (especially on the PK where he positioned himself below the goal line to stop a player who was above the goal line.) Against the Canucks Sarich made a simple but nice play for the Flames first goal, was physical and just overall made better decisions. He finished the game with a goal, +1 and was second only to Dion Phaneuf in ice time.

Robyn Regehr inexplicably played only about 20 minutes to Dion's 28 minutes. Dion played awesome and after the game remarked to the Fan 960 that (referring to the penalty he took in OT) it was 'a bad time to take a penalty.' In my opinion the problem may have been that Phaneuf played about 4 minutes in OT - he could have been a bit fatigued.

Aucoin was off and on and a seatmate remarked that Aucoin was 'like a box of chocolates.' Fill in the rest yourself but I think an astute comment.

The penalty kill still doesn't look good. This is a problem that has plagued the team for the better part of a season - the Flames play a passive collapsing box that refuses to assign coverage to the slot. So not only are points constantly able to push towards the net, rebounds are in general unrecoverable and passes through the slot are unimpeded.

The most distressing issue that continues to plague the Flames (besides the rookie glass ceiling which MG has been appropriately vocal about) is that we are continuing to find ways to lose. Calgary looked awful initially against Philadelphia but eventually pulled it together..until a Zyuzinesque play happened and the Flames found a way to lose again. The Flames looked great initially against the Canucks - the Flames dominated physically, carried the play and even grabbed the league. A lackadaisacal 2nd period put the Flames behind the gun again and after clawing their way back into the game in the third, and then tapdancing over the Canucks in OT, they made one mistake and instantly fell apart.

The Flames were one faceoff win/ice away from bringing the Canucks to OT. But they once again found a way to lose.

I will say though, it's been (and is going to be) entertaining.

'The Hockey News Top 50' - Flames

Italic is my own comments, in the style made famous by Lowetide.

Jarome Iginla - 06
"The Flames were the NHL's most disappointing team, simply awful on the road, but Iginla was a warrior night in and night out. He consistently demonstrated why he is one of the league's most complete and determined performers."

I don't think there's anything more anyone could have expected out of Iginla last season. Iginla's numbers were great, but now that he has consistently competent linemates his best may be yet to come.

Miikka Kipprusoff - 13
"Last season, we anointed the Calgary goaltender the top player in the league. His response? His play slipped. That said, we believe he has the potential to challenge for the honor of best goalie."

Only the hockey news could have viewed Kipper's last season as a 'slip.' Sure statistically he had 2 less wins, and sure he had 30 or so more goals against, but he was behind a much weaker group in a team defence sort of way. In fact, many times last year I felt Kipper was steadier than the year before.

Dion Phaneuf - 17
The Calgary defender is known for his hard hitting, but did you know he has scored the same number of goals as Hall of Famer Paul Coffey did in his first two seasons?

That really is quite an unbelievable stat, and for all the static he takes for not 'developing' we need to remember he's still quite the defenceman. I'm not sure he's the 17th best player in the NHL, but I fully believe he will be 17th best (or better) sooner rather than later. We'll see this season if he adjusts his game to be a bit smarter and a bit less rambunctious. Hopefully he's just smarter.

Dion Phaneuf - "Dion" / "Double Dion"

Had an up and down season in 07-08. Opposition began to compensate for Phaneuf’s presence on the blueline, but he still managed 17 goals, 4 game winners. Destroyed Denis Hamel early on in the year with a thundering check, but was quieter than his rookie year. Did not mesh well with Robyn Regehr. Ice time increased. Asked to play a pure shutdown/containment role for Canada in the World Championships, Phaneuf was nothing less than spectacular.

2007 Team Canada IIHF World Championships - Good as Gold

Watching Canada go 9-0 in this tournament, I couldn't help but identify two types of offensive guys for Team Canada.

The first type was typified by Mike Cammalleri. Cammalleri managed 80pts and 34 goals this season, quite a feat considering the ineptitude of the team he plays for. When you look at Cammalleri, you realize he's basically a hobbit sized guy, he's not particularly fast. His first two/three games for Canada, I couldn't help but wonder how in the hell Cammalleri accomplished his 80pt season. He looked pretty much invisible most of the time, he never beat guys 1-1, he had me perplexed.

I had faith in Andy Murray however, and I knew that Murray knew Cammalleri well. Murray's faith paid off, as Cammalleri eventually emerged as a key member of Canada's championship team. I think his first real impact play came as Canada was trying to tie the Czechs. Dion Phaneuf passed it to Cammalleri, and Cammalleri sent it to Staal on a breakaway. In the semifinal versus Sweden, Murray named Cammalleri an alternate captain, and it was undoubtedly Cammalleri's best game. He brought his best when when the chips were down. As the tournament went on, Cammalleri proved himself to be a very slick playmaker, albeit one who is completely invisible 90% of time. He's just one of those guys who you never notice until he scores of makes an unbelievable play.


The second type of guy was typified by Rick Nash. If you ever decide to wade into the shitstorm that is HF, you'll realize Rick Nash tends to polarize people. There are those that think he's absolutely terrible, overrated, defensively liable, etc. And there are those that can't find enough positive adjectives to describe Nash. I have to say, I fall into the second category. Watching Nash in action in the NHL is one thing, but I watched all of that 2005 World Championship run, and while Joe Thornton was the Tournament MVP in that silver medal effort, it was Nash that blew me away. This sounds like an exaggeration, but the player I compared him to was Mario Lemieux. He's big, he's fast, he's got hands. He did things that I've really only seen Mario do. Undoubtedly, there is a lack of consistency factor with Rick Nash, but I saw him work magic one time, and it's hard to put that out of your mind.

To me, Rick Nash was Canada's absolute most consistent player this whole tournament. From game 1 on, no one created more offensive chances, no one drove to the net harder (or more often), no one beat guys one on one as much (or at all), and no one had individual efforts like Nash. He maybe wasn't the team's best playmaker, or finisher, but for my money, no one was better.

While the question I had about Cammalleri was 'how does this guy manage to get so many points,' my question regarding Nash was 'how does this guys only get this many points?' He plays such a visible style, he's always got the puck, he's always shooting. He was 'snakebitten' early in the tournament, but only by the highest of standards. Most players wish they could be snakebitten Rick Nash style, because he just gets so many chances that its a numbers game - eventually he'll beat you.

Nash saved his best for last today. He scored a real beauty in the first period on the PP, when, as usual, he took the puck from the half boards and drove hard to the net, pulling the puck backhand and then forehand to change the shooting angle to beat Kari Lehtonen. When the game was reduced to a 1 goal lead with about a minute remaining, Shane Doan did his thing by firing the puck up to Nash in the neutral zone for a 1-1 with a Finnish defender. As Nash exploded by the defenceman, the defenceman went for the only play he had left. Draping himself around Nash, he twisted Nash almost completely backwards. It was no use though, as Nash managed to keep his composure and literally deke out tournament goaltending MVP Kari Lehtonen, scoring his second goal of the game, and sealing the win for his team. I said earlier that I comp'ed Nash to Lemieux. I challenge you to watch this goal and not do the same. After the game, Nash was awarded Tournament MVP.

"I don't have to tell you that Rick Nash probably took over this tournament for us," said Canada's Mike Cammalleri. "He stepped up and he was huge.

"That was some of the best hockey I've ever seen played."

Added GM Steve Yzerman: "He was spectacular. He was head and shoulders above everyone."(Source)

This tournament was really a lesson in World Championship success. Canada may not have had the most talent, but they became more than the sum of their parts. Every player on every line and every pairing had a role in this victory. There was never a time when I witnessed a line or player out on the ice and wished they could be replaced by someone on the bench. I would be remiss if I avoided mentioning the absolutely stellar play of Eric Brewer and Dion Phaneuf. Some Oilogosphere participants have mentioned Brewer's 'blonde moments' (witness his giveaway in the Slovakia game), but 95% of the time Brewer is simply a superb defensive defencman. He's just so strong on his skates, makes great decisions, is extremely calm. I've watched him internationally 5 times, and all he does is win. We missed him in the 2005 WCs -silver. Missed him in the 2006 WCs -4th and the 2006 Olympics -loss in quarterfinal. He has gold in 2003, 2004 and 2007 WCs, 2002 Olympics and a World Cup victory.

Dion Phaneuf was a late edition but it is hard to see this team winning without him. He became better each game, and his instructions were to avoid the big hits and play a containment game. He had 8 points in his shortened time in Russia (Thornton had 10 when he won tournament MVP) and just looked about as good as he ever has.

Colby "Cheese" Armstrong was exemplary of the team mentality with his contributions today. He's been pretty quiet all tournament, but his line of (mostly) Toews and Staal has been very good at both ends of the rink with their limited ice time. Today, with the game 2-0 Canada got a 5-3 PP and blew it, then received a penalty themselves. It was a classic setup for a 'TSN Turning Point.' Canada killed off the penalty though, and about a shift later Jordan Staal lugged the puck into the finish zone, dropped it off to the Cheese who blasted the eventual winner past Lehtonen. I was personally more excited for Armstrong himself than for the team, and judging by the expressions on the faces of those on the bench, the feeling was mutual. Here was a guy who has received absolutely no kudos, your archetypal unsung hero, and he just scored in the biggest game of his life. Especially when you hear about what a good guy Cheese is (coming from Lloyd and being the same age, there aren't a lot of degrees of separation between us), it makes me even happier.

Here's a thought; how many guys on team do you think were telling Armstrong, 'it ain't easy...being CHEESY!'

Going into the game, Andy Murray was the only coach to have two gold medals in the World Championships. Coming out of the game, he's the only coach to have three gold medals.

If you stopped watching the broadcast after the game ended, you probably missed one of the more touching moments. The cameras always follow the team into the locker room, and once inside, it panned along the players cheering celebrating etc, until it came to Chris Mason (he who phoned Steve Yzerman and said 'I know I won't play, but I want to be there to help the team), who shouted 'check out this guy!' The camera turns around, and the smallest, skinniest team Canada off-ice personelle guy starts dancing to Usher's "Yeah." The whole team congregated around and started cheering. The camera zoomed to Andy Murray, who tried to suppress his amusement but couldn't help break out a smile.

After the tournament, the top three players on each team were named by their own coaches, and the Flames and Oilers were well represented. From Calgary's side, Lombardi was selected as a top 3 player for Canada, while Toby (Tobias) Peterson and Patrick Thoresen were selected by their respective coaches.

A final thought about Team Canada's performance, from a Flames/Oilers perspective. Hockey Girl mentioned that she enjoyed the team as long as she ignored Roloson. Most Oilogosphere bloggers have mentioned numerous times how much they hate Dion. But watching the post game interviews, it was ironic that the only mention of Dwayne Roloson's contribution to the team (a very solid contribution I might add) came from his provincial rival. When asked by Ryan Rishaug about Cam Ward's excellent performance, Dion made a special effort to mention Roloson.


TSN's story

Hockey Canada recap and Game Summary

IIHF story

Post game quotes from both Finland and Canada players

Every 2007 IIHF World Hockey Championship blog entry in therealdeal Hockey

To Be Perfect

Heed the Warnings...

Eric Staal is Alive and Kicking

Just Good Enough

Dion Phaneuf Joins Team Canada

Making a Mark

Shane Doan Named Team Captain

Disappointments Abound

Captain Canada

Roster Announcements

Shitsburgh's Loss

Roster Announcements

Roster Announcements - Carolina Contributions

Coach/Roster Announcements

Defence

McKenzie Weighs in on Team Canada coaching staff

Coaches

Goalies

2007 IIHF Team Canada World Championships - Just Good Enough

While there are a lot of teams that enter this tournament and simply smoke the weaker competition (the Germanys, Switzerlands, Norways, etc.), Canada has a recent history of playing just well enough to win. Whether it's due to the fact it takes the Canadian players longer to get used to playing with one another (because Canada has such a huge talent pool to draw, the players are almost never the same year to year, while say, Slovakia has the usual suspects every year), or because they're not used to playing on the big ice, or just because the Canadians have a big culture shock in Europe, Canada just seems to find a way to play just well enough to win. The trend has continued this year.

While Canada beat both Germany and Norway, one could argue that both those teams provided a 'scare' to the Canadians. The Norweigens hit the scoreboard first and the two teams were deadlocked at 2 heading into the third. Canada definately had not yet hit their stride.

I thought Canada got off to another poor start in this game, getting hemmed into their own zone, and then taking a penalty which immediately led to a power-play goal by Slovakia. Canada got it's own powerplay and scored only 90 seconds later though, on a blast from the point from Canada secret weapon, Cory Murphy. I estimate that Murphy plays about 9 minutes a game, but the diminutive defenceman is tied for the team lead in points with Rick Nash, and I just think he looks really comfortable and confident out there after some jitters early on in the Germany game.

I thought Canada really took over the game in the second, jumping out to a 3-1, and then 4-2 lead, but uncharacteristicly bad defence from Canada allowed Slovakia to stay in the game. First Eric Brewer got caught trying to skate the puck out of his own end, and he was caught by Marian Hossa who immediately beat Dwayne Roloson to score. Then some sloppy defensive work by the Phaneuf/Hamhuis pairing allowed Marek Uram in on a breakaway which he buried. Leading by 1 in the third, Canada had a massive miscommunication between Roloson and his defenseman which lead to Slovakia tieing the game.

Rick Nash has been described by the play-by-play team of Dave Randorf and Dave Reid as being 'snakebitten' thus far in the tournament, but I would have to say thats an overstatement. Although Nash hasn't converted as many goals as perhaps he could, he has been Canada's single best offensive player by a longshot, and by all accounts, simply looks terrific out on the ice. In Canada's game versus Norway he has 11 shots on net, scoring one goal. Now, as I mentioned before, he is tied for the team lead in points, which goes to show he isn't exactly snake bitten, but I would be willing to admit that his points to chance ratio is not very good.

Anyway, enter today's game and Nash still looks completely on fire. He drives to the net like nobody's business and so far there hasn't been a defenceman thats been even close to handling him. Today he made a simply brilliant move by tipping a puck from the side of the net towards the front of the net and then batting it in for a shot. Nash's shot was saved but Hamhuis grabbed the rebound, and I think that incident is a pretty good illustration of the kind of impact Nash has had on the team. So Slovakia and Canada are tied with about half the third period gone and Canada is on a powerplay. The puck goes out to Cory Murphy on the point, who as usual makes a great play by getting the puck through traffic and on net, but just before Slovakian goalie Halak (Montreal's 3rd/2nd stringer this year) is able to put his glove on it, Nash tips the puck and Canada goes up 5-4 for the final goal of the game.

Canada should have had this game wrapped up in the 2nd period. 4 goals should be more than enough to win a game. But as I said before, Canada usually plays just well enough to win, and that's not necessarily bad, as long as you actually do win.

CP Game Story

Hockey Canada Game Story

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Before Turin 2006, there was a firestorm created by Liberal MP Denis Coderre, in which Coderre accused Shane Doan of uttering some sort of slur against French people. By every account, this event did not happen, and Shane Doan sued the crap out of Coderre, and last I recall, he at least got a formal apology letter from the media hungry Coderre.

Now, the 'controvery' has arisen again as Canadian MPs have apparently run out of real problems to solve. Any politician who brings something like this up in parliament and slurs Shane Doan like that is a total disgrace. In this case Jack Layton jumped on the bandwagon rally against Shane Doan, and there was debate in the house as to whether Shane Doan is a worthy Captain Canada.

Look in the mirror Canada, we elected 'em.

'I'm embarrassed that there's all this attention about it,'' Doan said. ''I never said anything so I don't understand why it keeps getting a life of its own.'' (Source)

"It's ridiculous," said NHL vice-president Colin Campbell, who investigated the 2005 incident.

"It's rather embarrassing to all Canadian hockey fans we're rehashing this again, particularly when Hockey Canada and Shane Doan are representing and working hard in Moscow right now, competing for our country."(Source)

"In the heat of the battle things get said sometimes - a lot worse than being called a French frog or whatever," Vancouver Canucks coach Alain Vigneault said.

"(Doan) says he didn't say it. Even if he did, come on. If our politicians, French or English, if that's the only thing right now they have to worry about ... There's a lot more important things going on right now in society. It is utterly, utterly stupid, not to say embarrassing."(Source)

2007 Team Canada IIHF World Championships - Dion Phaneuf joins Team Canada

After Shea Weber was suspended, Steve Yzermen mentioned Team Canada had 'options,' including that of adding another player, but I must say, this is completely unexpected. At the Darryl Sutter non-press-conference conference, the radio analysts seemed to indicated Phaneuf turned Steve Yzerman down due to 'injuries.'

I suppose that postulation could still be true, but it appears Phaneuf was asked a second time and will be joining the team. No mention as to how soon he will slot into the lineup, but I would bet Team Canada is hoping Phaneuf will join the team for their upcoming game against the undefeated Slovakia, a team that is the current favorite to win.

Canada will now go with 8 defenceman, which leaves me wondering; who will be the odd man out?

For political reasons I would bet Cory Murphy, who has played very well, will be the 8th guy. In my opinion though, it is Dan Hamhuis who has been the most inconsistent for the team.

2007 Team Canada IIHF World Championship Roster Announcements / Heart of a Lion

Canada added superb defencemen Dan Hamhuis and Shea Weber to the roster last night. Although I never mentioned Hamhuis he really is a very very good top 4 guy, and Shea Weber, as I've mentioned his inclusion before, is just really spectacular. I think of him to be a lot like Dion Phaneuf (they were d-partners in the World Junior Championship), but a bit better positionally, minus the massive hits. They are definately both top choice guys for Steve Yzerman and Co., but I would say that their inclusion means Bouwmeester is definately out. Not having him and Crosby there is a huge blow to Team Canada.

Speaking of Dion Phaneuf, will he join the team? I'm sure he's on the list, but right now there are 5 defenceman on that team that are all used to significant ice time, so is there room for Dion? I would expect Canada adds a player more in the Andrew Ference vein.

-----

Well, it won't come as any suprise to those watching Flames games, but I got it on pretty good authority today that both of Rhettsky's shoulders are completely shot, and that he will seriously consider retirement in the off-season. I thought his performance throughout this post-season was exemplary considering his work load and health. It's not Warrener's fault the Flames didn't have any defensive depth, and I think overall he did a tremendous job. You can question Warrener's play all you want, but I think everyone can agree he has the heart of a lion.

Calgary Flames vs. Detroit Red Wings - Pre Series Analysis cont.

Defence
Calgary

The last time the Flames faced Detroit in the playoffs, it was their defensive group that was their strongpoint. Not so anymore. Their are mighty holes in this group, despite their 'brand name' and high draft pick status. Andrei Zyuzin is incredibly inconsistent, even if his play has improved lately, Rhett Warrener, although a tremendous leader, has simply seemed too injured this season to make a difference. Brad Stuart, although physical, seems unable to pick his spots effectively, and his offensive side was highly overrated. Dion Phaneuf has been inconsistent this year, and his biggest weak point has been his defensive zone positioning. I still believe our brightest spots have been the emergence of Marc Giordano as a legitimate two way threat, David Hale as an unheralded defensive stalwart (although small sample of games played), and Robyn Regehr who I think has played very well considering the partners he's been given. Roman Hamrlik has shown he can either be very good or very bad.

That said, I fully expect Dion to explode in the playoffs. His pedegree is that of a big game player, and I was very relieved post playoffs last season to find out he was hobbled by a broken foot. Even Chris Pronger looked bad with a broken foot. Warrener I think will fall into this category. He's been hobbled all year but I suspect he won't play hobbled in the playoffs, I think he'll find a way to be better. Robyn Regehr has consistently saved his best for the playoffs (and other big games, ie World Cup).

Detroit

Detroit has the best overall defenceman of this series in Nick Lidstrom. He has been the pillar of consistency in all 3 zones his whole career, and he was arguably the best player for Detroit last year. Mathieu Schneider has got some very good offensive chops, and I think he's improved his overall defensive play since he got to Detroit. Danny Markov has shown he can dish out the big hit (Jarret Stoll anyone?). Detroit's last top 4 guy, Niklas Kronwall (pronounced Kronvall), at one point hailed as a 'mini-Lidstrom' guy, is out for the conceivable future, and that puts a big hole in the top 4. Detroit has a couple of options to go with to fill that hole, but judging from TOI, they've decided to go with their own (older and less injury prone) version of Rhett Warrener: Chris Chelios. I think this is a huge hole in Detroit's defence. While fans rave about Chelios' longevity, the fact is he is not very effective anymore. He gets beaten on the outside more often than a top 4 guy should, and the rest of his game is pretty basic at best. Although he scored a goal against Edmonton in the playoffs last year, his biggest contribution was diving at every chance he got. Andreas Lilja and Brett Lebda round out the top 6, and they both play about 15 minutes/game. Lebda in particular has made pretty good use of his ice time, garnering a +16 (3rd on the defence) and 18 pts.

Edge: Detroit

There is a caveat I must put in with my decision, and that is: it depends on a)which defensive group the Flames ice, and b)if the Flames defensive group deals out a liberal serving of physicality. If the Flames are willing to play Giordano and Hale in place of Zyuzin or an injured Warrener, it could make a huge difference. Those two in particular play a nice complimentary role to eachother, and they're both easily capable of 15 minutes/night. In addition, I think top to bottom the Flames defence CAN be more physical. We haven't seen a lot of it this year, but Brad Stuart is pretty consistent, Regehr loves to finish behind the net, Hamrlik can play it tough, Warrener put out Fedoruk last year with a massive hipcheck, and Dion, well, Dion is Dion.

The Wings on the other hand, get an added boost from a superior defensive puck posession system. Their biggest advantage may come from the fact Robyn Regehr is questionable for game 1, and even if he plays, he's probably going to be playing hurt.

Still up: Forwards, coaching, unsung heroes,

The Road Tie

If you watched the Calgary Flames during the Darryl Sutter coaching era you will undoubtedly noticed a certain necktie that Darryl wore on a fairly regular basis. I called it 'the road tie' because you'll notice it's obvious resemblance to a highway with a dotted line. I'm pretty sure Darryl almost never wore it at home games as well. I think he considered it his road tie as well.

To me, the road tie symbolized everything that was great about the Flames. The road tie was hard work. The road tie was perseverance. The road tie was smarts. The road tie was preperation. The road tie...was winning.

The Sutter clan has never been known for clever game strategy, (although Brent is starting to turn that around), but Darryl coached this team very well for his first season and a half. The 2004 playoff run was a stroke of genius in fact. The game was changing, although many coaches refused to acknowledge it. But Darryl figured it out. He knew he had a team that was a bit short on talent but heavy on speed and try. The Flames used a two man forecheck system. There was constant puck pressure on the opposing team's defenceman (or whatever poor soul happened to be trying to break the puck out) and the Flames both scored a lot of goals on that forecheck, and killed off a lot of time defensively. I called our forecheck system 'The Swarm.'

Remember the tandem of Nieminen, Nilson and Donovan? Probably one of the most effective 3rd line groups I have ever seen, which is especially impressive considering the career status of every single individual player from that line has plummeted since that time.

Back in those days, Darryl Sutter was probably the best coach in the NHL. The road tie was a symbol of his prowess.

That was then.

Now, Jim Playfair patrols the Flame's bench. We no longer see perserverence. We no longer see smarts. We certainly no longer see preperation.

I used to take pleasure in a road tie. Now what I'd really like to see is a road win. And I'm no longer just accepting road wins. I will only accept road wins against playoff teams.

Unfortunately, this team, or perhaps this coach, seems unwilling to deliver to my expectations.

The Flames no longer have a system, or at least one that works. This team has enough pure talent to beat any team, which would imply that we should choose a system and use it against every team. Force them to play our game. It's a philosophy that many successful teams abide by. Its a philosophy that took this team (this jersey at least) to the Stanley Cup Finals only a couple of seasons ago.

If we are forcing other teams to play to our strengths, then we're not doing a very good job of it. Firstly, we obviously cannot identify our strengths. Early in the season, Playfair talked about 'building an identity,' or 'playing to our identity.' In fact, he identified the Flames lack of success due to their not playing to their identity. When we went to the finals, our identity, our strength was speed, try, and defence. Now...
Is it:

a) Defence? Despite our abundance of defenceman drafted in the first round, our abundance of defenceman with well known names, our abundance of defenceman with a physical edge, our defenceman with defensive defenceman, our top 5 goaltender...quite simply put, team defence is often a week point in our game. Many of this team's defenders either have major mental lapses in terms of defending, in terms of distributing, or in terms of penalty taking. Therefore, I would say, defence is not our strongpoint. (Despite being ranked 9th in the league in GA).

b) Offense? Iginla, Tanguay, Langkow, Huselius, Lombardi, Moss, Conroy, Phaneuf, Hamrlik, Stuart. This is the offensive core of this team. Pretty big isn't it? Our Goals per Game ranking supports the idea of offense as being this team's strength.

This would imply that the Flames would want to get into high scoring games often (ala the Penguins or Sabres). Instead though, the Flames (or perhaps Playfair) seem to insist on pretending to be a defensively minded team, and instead of playing run and gun hockey (although the Flames occasionally fall back on that strategy). Its a strategy that has in fact succeeded more than it has failed, however, I would argue that this is because of the team's immense talent, rather than the actual efficacy of the strategy.

I have news for Playfair - the Flames identity is offence, and your strategy is playing counter to that.

Even assuming the Flames identity is not offense, Playfair has mangled the job of managing the team. I would postulate the hardest part of coaching is creating offence, that is something thats done mostly through talent. Systems are more likely to ruin offence than create it. Now that Playfair has the talent for offence, that would imply the Flames simply need to take care of their own end of the ice, and the rest of it will take care of itself. However, the coaching staff has refused to make adjustments to improve overall team defence.

Now it's probably a bit unfair to take the offensive credit away from Playfair and put the defensive blame on him. Perhaps I've overly complicated the issue.

But the fact is the Flames are (as many fellow Flames bloggers have pointed out) underachieving to a great degree. Its up to the coaching staff to get the most out of each and every player, and to get the most out of the group as a single unit. That's what Darryl Sutter was so great at in the days of the road tie. Thats what Jim Playfair and crew have failed to do this season.

The Blame Game

Sure, its easy to sit back and criticize after the fact. Thats exactly why I'm going to do it!

Forwards:

Alex Tanguay - totally invisible. Although several times I could've sworn you were playing with

Tony Amonte - Hmm...-2, good one Grandpamonte. Honestly, this guy HAS to have pictures...

Jeff Friesen - Just because

Daymond Langkow - not your finest game

Defence: Everybody, but in particular:

Roman Hamrlik - beauty game there. What, like 7 penalties and 1000 giveaways? Nice job.

Brad Stuart - Way to fire the puck out on the PK. Out of the field of play that is. Nice job 1-1 against Tootoo as well. I think you may be the best 1-1 defender in the NHL!

Dion Phaneuf - Wasn't the best time to pinch there buddy.

Andrei Zyuzin - lets say this, the high point of your game was when I thought you might be too hurt to continue.

Mark Giordano - I would say your biggest mistake of the game was the suicide pass to Amonte. Why couldn't you have placed it a bit more out of his reach so he REALLY got hammered?

Robyn Regehr - sadly, you were probably our best tonight, but can we cut down the number of breakaways against while you're on the ice to two a game or so?

Goalie: None. Kipper played average but wasn't the difference.

Good players:

Jarome Iginla - accounted for 2/3 of our offense.

David Moss - nice screen on the other 1/3 of our offense

Craig Conroy - Close but no cigar. Still, I thought your game was on.

Stephane Yelle - you won the important defensive zone draw at the end of the second, too bad you won it back to Harmlik.

Kristian Huselius - one of the few + players, set up Jarome for a goal

That's about it.

Does anyone notice that one list is shorter than the other? Oh, that reminds me, how do you think the golf courses are going to look in April?