Ouch

Knowing how much it hurt just to watch that I can only imagine how much it actually hurt.

Trade Deadline Deals Make Fools of Us All

I've got to admit, I'm a sucker for trade deadline day. There's so much possibility; for a better team now, for a better team in the future. It's such a meat market you can't help but be taken in. When I think of a great trade deadline day, I think Chris Drury for Rhett Warrener and Steve Reinprecht. Several years later I think we can say Drury was the best player in that deal, but I don't believe he was helping the team in a significant way, and Warrener and Reinprecht both had key roles in changing the Flames from pretenders to contenders.

On the Oilers side of things, I was pretty happy with the Dwayne Roloson trade. The Oilers desperately needed a steady veteran goalie and Roloson got them through at least one playoff round with his play. He was then arguably the Oilers best player the season after, and although his play has dropped off, I believe he still has value, whether in a trade or in a mentoring/leadership role or simply by playing better.

But the fact is the deals on or near trade deadline day rarely seem to work out.

I remember coming home one year from school on deadline day to discover the Flames had aquired...Sergei Krivokrasov...wtf? (He's actually still playing in Russia if anyone cares). I think last year's deal for Wayne Primeau and Brad Stuart is the perfect example of a deal gone bad. I praised it at the time and still do for the simple fact that I can accept going all in, given you have a good hand. However, the Flames lost that bet and they basically mortgaged the future for a gain of nothing. Brad Stuart bolted for warmer weather as we all knew he would, and we were stuck with Wayne Primeau (actually we stuck with him rather than the other way around). Andrew Ference would be mighty welcome on this team today.

Of course, I don't even have to mention the nightmare of last year's deadline for Edmonton. In my opinion that's a deal that will negatively impact the Oilers for years to come.

Those are some personal examples, but I honestly believe that trade deadline deals tend to be a mistake for playoff bound teams. First of all, if you're heading into the playoffs anyway, why mess with a good thing? If there's one thing fans should take away from international competitions, it's that often a good team concept (including chemistry and camaraderie) can overcome talent.

Taking that philosophy a bit further, why would you take a willing team with roles and chemistry already sussed out, then add a guy who is used to playing 20 minutes a night and try and slot him in on the first line? It's a mistake.

When Carolina won in 2006 they acquired Doug Weight on the deadline, but he was utilized as a third line center, not as a centerpiece of the team. In 2007 Brian "Big Head" Burke acquired Brad May to fill in as a 4th line agitator. Before that, the Lightning acquired Darryl Sydor about a month before the trade deadline. None of these guys are marquee players, they were brought on board to fill a small role.

Apparently Brad Richards is available, and it sounds like he will be traded, if not in the next 24 hours then in the off-season. I think he's expensive but I think any team would be lucky to have the 2004 Conn Smythe winner, especially since he's not a typical rental. That said, if I were a team that was top 8 in my conference, I wouldn't be going for him.

I'm not going to make a list of players I think will be traded (away or for), because it's far too speculative a game. Trades rarely make sense for both teams, sometimes make sense for one, and often make no sense for either. That said, here is a list of guys I wouldn't mind see hitting the old dusty trail. Nothing personal guys, this list is all business.

Calgary
Wayne Primeau - big contract, no role,

Mark Smith - just a pointless player

Marcus Nilson/Stephane Yelle - one or the other has to go, they're duplicate roles and neither of them are doing a particularly good job

Eric Godard - what's the point?

Anders Ericksson - he's not worth keeping around long term so we might as well get something for him

Rhett Warrener - just too damn injured

Cory Sarich - not good enough

Adrian Aucoin - not worth the money

Kris Chucko - throw this go nowhere draft to 'sweeten the deal'

Edmonton
Geoff Sanderson - just not good enough to keep around long term

Robert Nilsson/Robbie Schremp - we're only going to be able to develop one of them, get something useful for the other

Sheldon Souray - god awful contract, ok player

Marc-Antoine Pouliot - he's obviously going nowhere with the franchise, might still have some value

Mathieu Garon/Dwayne Roloson - I agree with Andy Grabia, Garon could fetch some value, while Roloson could rebound. On the other hand, Roloson's contract is worth dumping and Garon is worth keeping. It might be prudent to get rid of one though

One defenceman not named Staios or Gilbert - Holy crap, we got a lot of guys! If we aren't going to be able to retain Pitkanen, trade him. If Lowe thinks he can send Greene or Smid or Grebeshkov out and get a legitimate 2nd pairing guy then do it (assuming Souray is gone). Not enough veterans on the blueline makes for a disaster for developing any kids. We're either going to screw up all of them or sacrifice a couple to ensure the survival of the remainders.

Don't Forsake the Oilers, or God Will Forsake You

Life in Oiltown has been pretty god damned sour since the 07 trade deadline (actually it started before that but let me get to my point before you shoot down my poorly constructed introduction). The Oilers traded away Ryan Smyth for Nilsson and O'Marra, then in the summer traded the promised one, Joffrey Lupul after an extremely subpar year (or average depending on how you crunch the numbers). Finally, not even Michael Nylander would sign with the club, even after saying he would, choosing the Washington Capitals (!) instead.

I used to say that Smytty was hockey Jesus and when he wanted to talk to his father he would look up high into the lights of the rafters and signal the man upstairs...Lowe. Well I don't know if it's Lowe or God or just karma but those that hath forsaken Edmonton have had some plagues blasted on their asses...or such.

A couple weeks ago, Joffrey Lupul (public enemy number 8 or so, behind Pronger, Comrie, etc) took a much publicized hammering from, off all people, his teammate, the apparently not so useless Derian Hatcher (public enemy number 4 in Edmonton...well that hit probably dropped his wanted status down to 15 or so). Firstly, what the hell was Hatcher thinking, he hasn't layed a hit in YEARS, probably because he's too slow to line anyone up. Then when he finally decides to thrown down he nails his teammate, giving him a bruise to the freaking spine. What a champ.



I'm sure other Oiler fans like me (sadistic ones) cracked just the smallest smile when that happened. I mean, I hope Lupul is eventually better, but he was having a great season and making all of us doubters look like morons. Nothing like a little freak injury to set that bastard back in his place! (I'm joking of course...).

Next up we can talk about Ryan Smyth. I think disappointment is probably an appropriate word in terms of describing his performance this year, which dipped from regular to poor thanks to injuries. I think it's far too early to say Lowe was at least correct in assessing Smytty's games/year potential, but certainly Smyth's year is not looking up. Out till mid February, his centerman Joe Sakic is out even longer. Ouch.

Now finally we come to Michael Nylander, the man who despised Edmonton so much he went to the (former) murder capital of North America. I mean, honestly, how bad can cold weather and perogies be? This was a really strange situation, and I'm not sure who's to blame - Kevin Lowe, Michael Nylander, Michael Nylander's agent, or the sweet alluring puppy dog eyes of Alexander Ovechkin, but this was simultaneously a slimey and welcome move. The slimy is obvious, (how can you make a deal with one team and then somehow reneg on that deal, it's like a mini-Pronger move), but the welcome is the fact Nylander is no replacement for Ryan Smyth and is a move in the wrong direction for this team.

Now of course if there was any real justice in life Pronger wouldn't have a Cup, Lowe might not be fired but he certainly wouldn't have a contract extension, Smyth would be playing for the Oilers and Ty Conklin would've been playing like a madman in June 06 rather than now.

But as LT has said many times, this year is about moral victories.

Coincidentally, the Oilers are playing the Caps tonight. Check out Japer's Rink and A View From the Cheap Seats, because besides the fact the Oilers get to see those snappy new Caps jerseys, many Capitals bloggers have been given press passes because Ted Leonsis believes in the power of blogging. I wonder if Katz feels the same way?

Fun Fact: The Washington Capitals refuse to pay overnight shipping to equipment manufacturers, preferring to save money by having products sent ground.

'The Hockey News Top 50' - Oilers

Chris Pronger -05
Ryan Smyth - 34

oh wait....

update:

none

but Dustin Penner is listed as a 'Top Young Gun' who 'should grow alongside his youthful linemates.' Let's hope they're referring to Hemsky and Horcoff and not Perry and Getzlaf.

Blueprints

If there ever was a blueprint for dismantling a great team in a short time without any real (or at least obvious) rebuilding plans, Kevin Lowe has wrote it.

Trading your all star/franchise defenceman for very little return is the first step. Upon hearing of the necessity of moving Pronger (which I grant was a necessity) I felt that a negative could be turned into a positive. The (at the time) gargantuan Pronger contract could be liberated and in return the Oilers could get a couple top end prospects and a high end young player (who was cheap), and finally, could leverage that extra room into a long term contract for the heart and soul of the franchise, Ryan Smyth.

While the Pronger loss would sting, the Oilers would retain their core group: Smyth, Horcoff, Stoll, Hemsky, Pisani, Smith, Staios, Roloson (and to a lesser extent, Torres). Without blowing anyone away, it would be a consistent hard working group not yet hitting their prime. Add in a couple young prospects in the return and you've got a pretty decent group.

The Oilers managed to not get a useable young hockey player in the Pronger return. While I see a lot of potential in Smid, he was not the 'useable young hockey player' in the deal, he was the high end prospect. Lupul was supposed to be the useable guy; in his one season with the Oilers he had the 2nd worst plus minus in the league. Honestly, the less said about Lupul the better.

Step number two in this blueprint is to totally blow the negotiations with the key piece of your core. Not a soul in the world would argue Ryan Smyth was the engine that drove this team for years (although some have argued there are nicer engines out there). Kevin Lowe managed to overpay a bunch of cogs in the machine and avoid the engine in the year before the engine hit free agency. 'We'll negotiate in the summer' Lowe told Smyth, predicting Smyth would not continue to build on his consistently strong career. After Lowe signed Staios early into the season, Ryan Smyth declared he would not take a home town discount this time (a lie.) Lowe began to panic at Smyth's increasingly impressive goal total (one night he racked up 3 in a shorter time span than any Oiler in history, gaining his rightful place among Oiler greats) and implied they should negotiate in-season. The Smyth camp accommodated this suggestion but the two sides weren't moving a lot from their initial positions. Having already abandoned his plan of resigning Smyth in the off season, Kevin Lowe decided to go a step further and insist that if Ryan wasn't signed before the off season, he would have to be traded. Although practically a smart plan, it wasn't necessarily a necessity. The Oilers would undoubtedly have the high ground in an FA chance, and besides, they still had until July 1 before he hit free agency. Both sides were motivated to keep Ryan in Edmonton.

Kevin Lowe made the call and traded Smyth for some mid level prospects.

Now I don't believe in all the talk about Edmonton not being a desired location to play, but sending the heart and soul (and one of the most popular players in the league) of your team off with a bad taste in his mouth probably didn't ease over any image problems Edmonton has with NHLers.

Anyway, the final step involves the lack of ability to improve the team in any meaningful way. I'll be the first to admit that trading Smith (nooooooooooooo!) and Lupul (good riddance) for Pitkanen and Sanderson is probably a good move simply because Pitkanen is the best player in the deal; however, does it feel to anyone like a token move, meant only as a way to make it look like Lowe is doing something...anything.

If you look at balance sheet, Edmonton traded Chris Pronger, Ryan Smyth, Jason Smith for Smid, Pitkanen, Sanderson, Nilsson, O'Marra, Nash, Plante and a couple 2008 picks.

Have I got that right?

There has better be one hell of a rabbit coming out of that 2008 draft hat, or this is one of the worst series of deals in hockey history.

Not to mention all the talk after the Smyth trade about 'needing a better top guy than Ryan Smyth.' That talk is all well and good, but let's examine the reality. The Oilers had the ability yesterday to pick from a variety of top level guys that are arguably better than Ryan Smyth. Who did they end up with?

Michael Nylander.

Now I have no particular issues with Michael Nylander, I've met him, he was a really nice guy, he can clearly put up the points. But is he a better top guy than Ryan Smyth?

If you're going into the trenches day in and day out, who would you rather have on your side?

It wouldn't surprise me either if Nylander was signed to a contract close in numbers to the contract Ryan Smyth offered up Edmonton way back in February. Maybe not in length, but in dollars/year.

Not to mention the Oilers are already stocked on centers. Perhaps this signals another future move, sending Moreau or Horcoff or Stoll out for a winger.

The engine's already gone, why bother keeping the cogs?

And that is a quick overview of how you quickly dismantle a great team without any rebuilding plan.

Oilers' Options Running Out

With the Flyers trading for and signing both Kimmo Timonen and Scott Hartnell, the Oilers have missed out on two of the top leading candidates for reinforcement positions. Many Oilers fans around the blogosphere had speculated that Hartnell would replace Ryan Smyth on the top line. Back at LT's, many even drew up line combinations with Scott Hartnell as a 'best case' scenario. In that case, best case just went out the window.

Timonen was certainly a nice potential option on defence. AOTR had a nice post up about Timonen's game impact with a comparison to various other '#1' defenceman, and I think they proved pretty well that Timonen stacks up very nicely.

LT has also been predicting that Lowe would make some sort of a splash at the draft, and I have no reason to disagree with him. Lowe's job is very much on the line, and his options are running out.

Some possible predictions for draft day (and July 1st) and probability of event happning:

Brad Richards is traded to Edmonton (30%) I agree with LT and others that his albatross of a contract has made him a trade target. Plus it would be a huge splash on the level of Peca+Pronger.
Upside - Oilers get one of the best players in the league
Downside - The Oilers pick up an albatross contract and lose a very good players as well

Scott Gomez is signed by Edmonton (50%) - His speed and playmaking ability make him a typical Oiler prospect. The fact he played on a defensive team shows he's MacTable (whatever that means)
Upside - Edmonton picks up a very very good playmaker who I would also consider a playoff performer.
Downside - Gomez may take up more cap space then his ability justifies. Think $6 million or so.

Joni Pitkanen is traded to Edmonton (35%) - Aquiring Timonen makes a move of another Philly defenceman more likely
Upside - Young, relatively cheap puck moving defenceman
Downside - large potential to give up a lot of assets and get an over-rated guy in return, + an add on albatross (Hatcher)

Wade Redden is traded to Edmonton (50%) - One year left on his contract, Ottawa potentially wants roster shakeup
Upside - Oilers get a two-way defenceman who reignites the Oiler offence and steadies the defence
Downside - Oilers could also get a guy who tends to lose often and is best when the rest of the team picks up his slack, also, the price may be high

Ryan Smyth is signed by the Oilers (1%) - Ryan somehow forgives and forgets, comes home.
Upside - The Oilers get their heart and soul back, Lowe looks like genius (again?)
Downside - None, unless the Oilers sign the Mullet for 6+

Odds and Ends

When Yashin's contract got bought out last week, I couldn't help but think it was the Smytty Factor at play. When the season ended Ryan made a remark such that it was a real disappointment playing with guys who weren't willing to leave it all on the ice. It's obvious who he was referring to, the management, players and coaching staff all loved him (and would love to have him back). Was buying out Yashin's contract the first step in an Islander bid to resign Smyth?

I'll say one thing, after all the crap Yashin has gotten away with over the years, I will laugh if it was the words of one Ryan Smyth that finally got him canned.

-

Speaking of, who is Yashin's agent anyway? That man must be the most talented agent on the planet. Well...maybe some of the credit has to go to Milbury and Wang.

-

NHL Awards are on Thursday night, just a couple predictions:

Even though it should got to Luongo, I think the players will select Sidney Crosby for the Lester B. Pearson. Reason being? Players seem to tend to shy away from selecting goalies, and Lecavalier got to play with St. Louis. Crosby had Malkin, but I think St. Louis is still the preferred linemate. I think Crosby's got the best shot at the Hart too - the Eastern media has never even watched Luongo and Brodeur pulls this MVP thing every year.

After watching Pahlsson in the playoffs, he's my vote for the Selke (I know playoffs don't count, ok?). I think he'll take the Selke home. Brind'Amour is more of a sentimental pick and Pandolfo plays for team Selke.

Pronger and Niedermayer will split the voters for the Norris, and Lidstrom will win it. Again...

Vigneault should win the Jack Adams, but (again, the eastern media) I think it will go to Ruff. Of the three teams nominated, the Sabres were the most formidable, and the hockey journalists seem to not want to give Therrien any credit for the Penguins' success.

Award the Vezina to Luongo. He's earned it.

In the early goings of the season my vote for Calder would have been Malkin, but both Staal and Stastny were better overall players in my opinion. Should go to Stastny, will go to Malkin.

-

I've mentioned multiple times that the trend seemed to be leaning towards a more balanced group of 6 defenders, none of whom could be considered a true number 1, and none of whom could really be considered a true number 6.

Calgary almost suceeded with that strategy in 04, I would argue that Tampa Bay did succeed with that strategy (even though Dan Boyle has more recently matured into a very competent number 1). Carolina won with that strategy last year, and I wondered allowed if it was even possible to win when spending upwards of $6 million on one defenceman (given current cap constraints).

I guess Anaheim blew away that theory.

Obviously Anaheim has a few cap bargains (Perry, Getzlaf, Penner, Beauchemin), but I think that will be common to all future Stanley Cup winners under this bargaining agreement.

That statement however, depends on the cap not stratifying the league to pre-cap period levels.

Team Canada World Championships 2007 - Captain Canada

Fans of the IIHF World Hockey Championships (regardless of the team I think) will recognize one conspicuously absent name: Ryan Smyth. Besides from last year, while the Oilers went deep into the playoffs and Team Canada underwent a youth movement, Ryan Smyth has been the one constant about Team Canada. Success has followed. From Smyth's inclusion 12 years ago in the World Junior Championship (Gold) to 2002 Salt Lake City, to 2003-2004 World Hockey Championships (Gold) and the World Cup of Hockey (1st), Smyth has made a respectable name for himself on the international stage. So much so he has been given the moniker of 'Captain Canada."

The question for Team Canada this year is 'who will fill that leadership void?'

Of the players named to the roster so far, I think one name sticks out above the rest: Shane Doan.

In 1995, a year after Ryan Smyth was drafted 6th overall by the Edmonton Oilers, the Oilers again had the 6th overall pick. When it was Glen Sather's turn The then named Northlands Colliseum chanted one name: Shane Doan! Shane Doan! The Halkirk Alberta native could've been an Edmonton Oiler.

Glen Sather went with a guy named Steve Kelley instead.

The Winnipeg Jets picked Shane Doan 7th overall in 1995, and he is the last remaining player from the Winnipeg days.

Shane Doan has played for Canada numerous times in the World Championships, starting in 1999 as a replacement for Eric Daze, and was part of the two Gold medals in 2003. As a kid he watched Gretzky pass it to Lemieux in 89 and dreamed of scoring one just like it. In 2004, he got his chance, scoring the winning goal in Canada's first and only World Cup victory.

"It's a dream to score that goal."

Since that victory, Canada has fallen into a bit of a slump. Silver in the '05 Worlds, 5th in the 2006 Olympics, 4th in the '06 Worlds. Doan will get the chance to win again in '07.

While in previous World Championships Doan was the supporting player, this year he will be the veteran. And barring a big suprise, he will be named Captain Canada.

-----

There will be about 3 more forwards named to the team (possibly a 4th "reserve" forward) and 1-2 more defenceman. Canada needs one 1st-2nd liner, and 2 3rd line guys. I speculate that Brendan Morrow will be on the list of forwards for one main reason. Brendan Morrow is a 'bubble' player on Team Canada. He has participated in numerous World Championships and proven his mettle (played on a line with Dany Heatly and hit a guy so hard on the forecheck the guy had to leave the game and be hospitalized). Despite this, he's never quite made the 'A' team. He was a reserve forward in the World Cup of Hockey (along with Patrick Marleau) and didn't get to play in any games (save an exhibition). He unfortunately never made the 2006 Olympic team either. He's always close, but not quite. The World Championships on the other hand, is a proving ground for future Team Canada 'A' squad players. Morrow has successfully played a supporting role, but if he wants to make the bigs, he needs to play a central role.


If Morrow was named to the team, he would be a huge addition.

Acceptance & Denial

Obviously I'm not the only one having trouble accepting Smytty is not an Oiler anymore. Also, the headline is both true, embarrassing, and depressing.

The World Has Gone Crazy

Over the last couple of days I've just been trying to consolidate all of my thougths about Smytty leaving Edmonton. The press conference yesterday, which I listened to live, was absolutely heartbreaking, especially when Ryan said he wanted to bring the Cup back to Edmonton because 'that's where my heart is.' I know that this was a money deal (on both sides) pure and simple, but it doesn't make it any easier. I'm 23 years old, and although Gretzky inspired me to take up hockey at an early age, Smytty has been my main inspiration for a long portion of my life. I keep thinking back to this hilarious advertisement in the early 2000s (I think) where Ryan Smyth worked at a car dealership (Chevy I'm pretty sure) and it showed him in his various exploits, including stickhandling a ball around the showroom where the manager showed up and told him 'No hockey in the showroom Ryan!!' This is the same guy that was crowded around his family on Olympic decision day in 2001, when Lowe phoned him and asked 'are you nervous?' to which Ryan tried to remain cool by replying 'should I be?' If memory serves he cried tears of joy that day too. If anyone can think of a man who has been there for his country in international competitions more than Smytty be sure to let me know. The only name that comes to my mind is Gretzky.

But as Smytty said, he has to move on and start a new chapter and so do I.

How wierd does that look? About as wierd as this.

No, not Iggy high fiving his teammates...THIS!

Not only was it the first shoot-out win of the season, but a 2-1 victory? When is the last time we saw one of those? Of course, against the Wild, always think low, but still.

I actually thought the team played pretty well except for a couple of guffaws. The Yelle penalty was kinda BS, I thought there should have actually been a Wild one on the play (against Radavoyahaslamalamadingdong?). Brad Stuart managed to get beat on a 1-2 play, so the soon to be California-ite is still managing to look average at best (and what about the play in OT where he lost it right at the line? Protect the puck Brad!). He and Regehr still don't look comfortable with one another.

In my opinion, no player that wasn't on the roster last year will be more of a help in the playoffs than David Moss. Seriously, this guy plays a really simple style that has 'playoffs' written all over it. Its depth guys like him that play consistently and are willing to play in the dirty areas of the ice that make the difference. I especially like having a rookie, and I'm dead serious about this. New players have less bad memories and self doubt to infringe upon their current decisions. Think about Kipper's first playoff run, think about him now. Not that my point is proven, but its a theory that has credence.

Anyway, sorry for the disjointedness of this post, but I've been a little disjointed over the past couple of days. My friend and I are debating whether Smytty would rather we slit our wrists or drive a truck into a lightpole in his honour. A little post-Smytty-era humour there (or is it?)

Sportsnet is reporting Smytty is signed!!!!!!!!!!!!!

More as it develops, the online feed is a bit shakey, and it is Sportsnet. I think they were saying it would be announced before the game tonight. Fingers crossed again. (12:12pm)

**Update!**

Fuck.

Fuck everybody.

Fuck Sportsnet for getting my hopes up. Fuck Eklund for being the fucking joke he is, reporting trades 5-10 minutes after TSN reported them. Fuck him for claiming that Smyth was signed and it would be announced ‘within the hour.’

Fuck Kevin Lowe. Fuck you for not resigning for trading Pronger instead of making him sit. Fuck you for signing the whole fucking core but not your best player. Fuck you for not trading Lupul. Fuck you for not resigning Ryan Smyth earlier. Fuck you for trading RYAN THE FUCKING FRANCHISE SMYTH. I hope you get booed out of the fucking building tonight Lowe, as soon as you’re announced I hope you hear such a chorus of boos that it deafens you. I hope you get fired by the end of next season.
Fuck the New York Islanders, Rangers, Blues and Philadelphia for being Lowe’s only willing trading partners.

Fuck Ryan Smyth. Fuck you man. Fuck you. Fuck you by forcing Lowe to trade you. You couldn’t take a little less to stay with the team you cheered for your whole fucking life? That you fucking bled for? That you were 2 goals away from the Stanley Cup with? Now you get to play for Garth Snow for 2 months and then what? I know you’re not coming back because you think Lowe fucked you over. I can’t even believe the relationship between you and the stupid fucking Oilers franchise got so bad that you couldn’t come to a deal.

Fuck Don Meehan who loves to force GMs to trade the faces of the Franchise away from the teams they’ve spent their career with. This is number two Meehan, Fleury was number 1, and I’m not going to forget either. Business is business but I’d just as much spit in your face as shake your hand if I ever met you.

Fuck the Oiler organization. Fuck the fact that you’re not willing to put a little coin on the table to sign the man everyone loves. I hope you sell under 10,000 season tickets next year and the fans throw it in your fucking face that you’re all fucking retards. Stop looking for a new fucking building, I hope you can’t fill the current one.

Fuck Robbie Fatass Shremp. If the stupid organization thinks he will fill in for Ryan's missing shoes in any way they are sorely mistaken.

Fuck O'Marra, fuck Nilsson.

Fuck the soft 2007 draft.

Fuck.

Condolences accepted via email or comments.

**Update!:**

Mckenzie said the two sides were only $200,000-$300,000 apart at the end. I'm gonna be sick.

The Clock is ticking

The Edmonton Oilers are expected to resume negotiations Monday with Ryan Smyth's agent Don Meehan on a new contract.

Smyth, 31, will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1 and there is pressure on both sides to try and get a deal done before the Tuesday's trade deadline.

Reports have suggested that the Oilers could trade their 'heart and soul' player if a deal can't be reached, rather than lose him for nothing if he signs with another team in the summer.

Smyth, a cornerstone for the Oilers since he was drafted in 1994, leads the team in scoring this season with 31 goals and 53 points in 53 games.

(Source)

Random Thoughts

Flames

In the third period of the final of the 3 straight games against the Avalanche and the Flames are down a goal. How do you spell mediocre? F-L-A-M-E-S. Colorado is currently a bubble team and we can barely handle them. Sure, we're 1-1 in this 'series' but why have the Flames gone from being a team that can't score goals to a team that needs to score many goals?

Call me cynical, but I'm still not sold on Stuart. His +/- hasn't worsened since he got here, but, tonight for instance, he's been on the ice for 3 of Colorado's 4 goals. Actually, maybe thats just a sign he shouldn't be on the PK.

That brings me to the coaching this team has received. The on-ice talent needed to succeed is there, but the coaching staff seems unable to steer it in any useful direction. A team with this much talent should win consistently and meaningfully, however, the last two-three weeks have been anything but. Blowing leads late, early and midgame, blowing multiple goal leads, having terrible in zone coverage, these are characteristics that are extremely contrary to championship teams. The players need to be accountable, but so does the captain of the ship.

There are rumours Martin Gelinas will return to the team (from HF, so take it for what its worth). While no one would be happier about Gelinas' return than myself, I wonder what role he could play on our team. Amonte has become the Flames post '04 run Gelinas replacement, and although he's much crappier, they play almost identical roles. This gives us one redundant player, which is a waste. We would have to somehow get rid of Amonte, which I assume is impossible, or we would have done it already. I expect this rumour will never materialize, but I thought the same about Conroy, so I'm probably not the best judge.

I feel like we're about as far away from the Cup as we've ever been. Seriously. The way we're playing now, it'll be 4 or 5 and out.

I'm really looking forward to playing a team that isn't named 'Avalanche.'

We've now officially lost 2/3 in a series we should have been able to win 3/3.

Oilers

Between Senators practice and Oilers practice, former teammates get caught up: Danny Heatley, Steve Staios (teammates in Atlanta) along with Ethan Moreau and Mike Comrie.

Ok, lets put this season to bed. It's over. There's only one last order of business, and I've harped on it for quite some time. Kevin Lowe, if you're reading this, you know what to do.

Despite losing tonight, and in Buffalo last week, the Oilers have been playing some entertaining hockey. For those that actually ordered the PPV tonight, you got your money's worth. Sure, the Oil couldn't seem to hit the broad side of a barn door in that shootout, and Hemsky probably made you dizzy from circling the opposition net so much, but coming back from a two goal deficet with under 5 minutes is classic Oilers hockey.

Tom Gilbert and Mathieu Roy looked pretty good playing with eachother tonight actually. As far as I can tell, it was Gilbert's emergence as a decent AHL defenceman which allowed (forced?)the Oilers to trade Bergeron.

For that matter, Jacques and Winchester made nice bookends. I cringed when Morley Scott (or was it Rob Brown) mentioned JFJ was coming up with a lot of confidence thanks to his inspired play in the AHL of late (including a 4 goal game). That may well be, but you have to believe all JFJ can think about is 20GP, 0 goals.

MA Pouliot, what can you say? He looks like he's turning into a bonefide NHLer. He's been distributing the puck, mucking it up around the net, killing penalties (smartly I might add), and he's even put the puck in the net.

Nice to see Jussi get the start. If LT gets his way this could be one of Juice's last games with the franchise. He played about as well as you could hope, except for arguably the first goal. If not for Markkenan it could have been a lot uglier score tonight though.

On That's Hockey today Darren Dreger seemed to believe Lowe would not be trading Ryan Smyth and that he would be resigned in the off-season. I really hope thats true, as this team gives us flashes of what it could be.

Sounds like Brewer will re-sign in St. Louis, or at least, St. Louis is intent on re-signing him.

Live by the Smytty, Die by the Smytty

Ryan Smyth practices with his Team Canada teammates at FDB before the 2005 World Championships

Ryan Smyth is the Edmonton Oilers. His presence on the team since rookie season has been exemplified by grit, determination, tips, heart and mullets (sorry, Moulets). I remember in his first playoff series versus Dallas, Doug Weight was taking a lot of heat because he couldn't put the puck in the net. 'Forget about Weight,' I said, 'this Smyth guy is going to be the leader of the Oilers.' He was the Oilers' best player in that series, and there has been very few times since then that he wasn't the Oilers' best player.

The Oilers as an organization have never been timid about trading anybody. Once Gretz was traded way back in '88 there has been a trend to get rid of top guys, oftentimes at or near the peak of their playing ability. Moose to the Rangers, Kevin Lowe to the Rangers, Weight to the Blues...so I do not for one second believe Lowe will hesistate on pulling the trigger on Smyth simply because of his name.

I feel though that the ramifications could be different this time around. There is something about Smyth (that I think maybe even Messier and Gretzky didn't have), that allows him to connect intimately with the City of Champions and arguably the whole of Alberta. Maybe its the fact that he's often been the one continuous bright spot on a lot of mediocre Edmonton teams over the past decade or so, or maybe it's the fact he's such an unassuming home town hero, or maybe it's because he's one of the first of the first generation of kids growing up cheering on the magnificent Oiler teams of the 80s to actually make the team. How many kids can say Glenn Anderson ran them over and it was one of the best days of their childhood life?

Kevin Lowe's success with the Oilers as management has often come on the coattails of Ryan Smyth. Kevin Lowe's success internationally has often come on the coattails of Ryan Smyth. In essence, Kevin Lowe, and the Oilers, live by Ryan Smyth.

During last season's playoff run, I believe it was the day after Smyth scored his famous toothless winner, Kevin Lowe admitted something to the effect that he understood Smyth's value to the team and the community, and that if he traded Smyth, he would become the least popular man in Edmonton. And how.

Here's what I expect will happen:

a) If Kevin Lowe signs Smyth, no one will blame him if the team fails. People are too emotionally connected to Smytty to have the hindsight to say 'we should have traded Ryan.' I think there are people in the city who would rather lose with Smyth than win without him.

b) If Kevin Lowe trades Smyth AND fails to resign him in the offseason, he will either; resign (Oilers GMs have a habit of fading away rather than burning out) or be fired if the Oilers fail to make the playoffs in the following season. At best Lowe will probably receive a 1st round pick (probably a late 1st round) and maybe a half decent prospect that will not be ready for the NHL by next season's start. Even if its a generally good deal several years down the road (think Fleury being traded for Robyn Regehr) it will be too late for Lowe. The revolt will have long happened and the patrons of Oil Country will have vanquished theirGM.

Such that Lowe has staked so much of the Oilers and his success on Ryan Smyth, his future now resides with Ryan Smyth. Lowe and Meehan (Smytty's agent) are meeting on Saturday, and I for one am not even moderately confident a deal will get down. But I at least hope Lowe understand the ramifications of failure.

Going on a quick vacation this weekend so I won't have another post up until Monday at the earliest. Hopefully Ryan is a confirmed Edmonton Oiler for life by then.

We need a miracle from Ken Lowe

A long time ago, I wrote about the loss of Ethan Moreau and the effect it could have on this team. At the beginning of the season, or near beginning, the Oilers were adrift in the seas of 'quality forwards' they aquired over the years. The lineup looked something like this:


Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky
Pisani-Stoll-Torres
Sykora-Moreau-Lupul
Reasoner-Thoresen-Winchester

Now, if you looked at that lineup today, it would not have the same sort of status as when the season started. Lupul never turned into the feared sniper we thought (hoped?) he would, Sykora's play wass about as mediocre as it ever was, Winchester never took that extra step etc etc etc. Bear in mind, the lines also looked a lot different, but given the way the season has gone I doubt there would be many that would argue the top two lines listed are pretty solid, the third is adrift no matter what, and the 4th would have been at least interesting. So as long as we're dreaming we might as well dream of optimum combinations.

Granted, this forward lineup never became as feared or as punishing as it 'should have,' but in my opinion, looking at this lineup today, it's still a very solid group from top to bottom. Hemsky and Smyth playing together are about as effective as any twosome, Pisani, Stoll and Torres provide a nice mix of smarts, toughness and scoring touch, Moreau compliments Lupul and Sykora's skill with some toughness and defensive responsibility, and the third line has a lot of smarts and also some toughness. And in fact, the Oil were doing pretty well with this lineup (if I could figure out how to look up their record at the time I would, but I recall some degree of success).

However, the loss of Moreau, in my opinion, was the beginning of the end of the Oiler's season. My earlier post referred to the loss of leadership and consistency Moreau brings every night to this franchise. I predicted Smith, Staios, Smyth, Horcoff and Stoll (I didn't mention Pisani but in my opinion he fits in that group) would pick up the slack, and I think for a time they did.

Then Smytty got hurt. Arguably the nose dive started around the time they lost to Anaheim at home in a game they should have won, but when Smytty went down about the only positive to emerge was Jarret Stoll's consistent play.

Smytty comes back, and Staois goes down.

Staois comes back, Stoll goes down.

Stoll does not come back, Pisani goes down.

So now the Oilers are out on full forward line consisting of some of their most consistent and effective players, down 3 key leadership guys, down a depth defenseman (my first mention of the mysterious Tjarnqvist injury) and they're expected to go on a 7 game road trip and save the season.

Excuse my pessimism, but good luck guys.

Obviously, our lack of defence has hurt. Losing Pronger, Spacek, Samsanov and Peca has hurt. But I believe this team had the personel required to squeek into the playoffs (at least) at the beginning of the season. The core of this team, of which painstaking care was taken to keep intact, has been rattled with injuries, and to expect success while missing several key guys over prolonged periods is unrealistic.

So unless Ken Lowe can work miracles with Stoll and Pisani, this team isn't heading anywhere besides the golf course.

5/5 = Playoffs

While the odds of the Edmonton Oilers actually making the playoffs is dwindling faster than Sean Avery's chances of winning the Lady Byng, the faithful still believe there is a Lloyd Christmas dating Mary Swanson chance of making it. And while Scarlett at Only Oil has come up with a number I agree with, I would like clarify it even further.

The Oilers play the currently in 8th place, the Minnesota Wild, a total of FIVE times over the last 30 odd games of the season. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that if the Oilers can take all 5 games in regulation, they will squeak into the playoffs for a second straight year.

In fact, taken another way, the future of this year's Edmonton Oiler team is more in their hands than perhaps any other season before. Of the final 27 games of the season, including tonight's against the Thrashers, the Oilers play, 10 of them are against Northwest opponents, 13 against Western Conference teams currently ahead of them in the standings.

Of course, actually winning those games will depend on a couple key factors:

1. Will Jarret Stoll return from his headache break? Oil fans are holding their breath waiting for this mid season Oiler MVP to get back into the lineup after taking a stick to the helmet. If you're thinking about Tim Connolly it may be a bit premature, but not out of the question.

2. Will Smytty sign and carry this team into the playoffs? He's done about everything humanly possible to keep this team in the black and the Oilers have no hope without him.

3. Will the Oilers make a trade for a depth defenceman, or will Tjarnqvist return? The Oilers cannot afford any more callups on defence. They're shaky enough as it is with their current lineup.

4. Can Sean Horcoff continue his recent strong play? Since being reunited with Smyth and Hemsky the never say die centre has been able to return to doing the simple things right. His defensive zone coverage has totally turned around and he's been buzzing around the opposition net a lot more.

5. Lupul-Pouliot-Sykora - Will these three step up, or step out?

6. Buyers or sellers? I'm not of the opinion the Oilers are either. I think they have a good group in general and keeping the core together for next year is of the utmost importance. Its not worth it for them to give up a solid player like Raffi Torres for a rental guy that most likely won't be able to impact this team enough to create any short term success. On the other hand, I don't think its necessary to unload guys like Jason Smith for prospects as I believe he still fits in with the gameplan for next season.

7. The defence is still undermanned. That's not a question.

I think in general, these are the questions Oilers fans will see answered over the course of the next two-three weeks, and the answers will determine whether or not the Oilers can put together enough solid games to beat the teams they need to in order to reach the playoffs. That was a very convoluted sentence, but you get the idea.

At its very core, this season will come down to simple math: 5/5 = playoffs.

Re-united and it feels so good! (Part II)

Ironically, I actually couldn't find a picture of the three of them together, but we can pretend that's Horcoff in the background

Although I wrote my last piece on the re-uniting of Iginla and Conroy in Calgary, another distinctive group on the other side of the province was re-united last Saturday and has had considerable success. Horcoff has had an up and down year (mostly down) and Smyth has had a personal up year (even if team success has eluded this Oiler group), but together they simply haven't been able to click they way they did in all last year (regular season and playoffs). Their missing piece, Ales Hemsky, had been relegated to playing with Petr 'One Timer' Sykora, thanks to some early season chemistry between the two. However, the production between Hemsky and Sykora had dwindled down to almost nothing since Hemsky got hurt late in the '06 calendar year, and this team was running out of options.

The trio was briefly re-united in the New Year's eve game against Calgary, but MacT re-shuffled the deck soon after and Hemsky was sadled with not just one under performing Czech, but two, as Hemsky, Nedved and Sykora joined together as the laughably ineffective 'Czech line' or more aptly, the 'No Check' line.

Last Saturday though, in a game vs. the L.A. Kings, Hemsky, Horcoff and Smyth were re-united for an entire game, and boy, did they make a case to stay together. Scoring all 4 goals (Smyth 2, Hemsky 1, Horcoff 1) and accounting for 11 of 12 points in the game, the line dominated the whole game, and was the undeniable difference between winning and losing.

Hemsky found Smyth again on Wednesday's game vs. Columbus, and Hemsky and Smyth came together to find Sykora for the winner.

Against Columbus, the line shot blanks. But if MacT had any doubts about keeping them together for the rest of the season, tonight's Avalanche game should have erased them. Read the scoresheet.
G1. Hemsky (+2 1a)
G2. Smyth (+1, 1a)
G3. Horcoff (+1, 1a, 1GWG)

The trio was on for every goal for, except for the first goal in which Horcoff was off. Undeniably, the group was responsible for the 2pts in the win column.

Now if Stoll can shake off the cobwebs the Oilers have a chance at two consistently effective lines, (and for a further stretch, Lupul looks like someone lit a fire under his ass, its possible he, Sykora and Nedved can turn into hockey players...and if not, at least their suck won't rub off on anyone else).

** Fingers Crossed **

Sportsnet is reporting, according to a 'report in the Sun' that Smytty has been offered a deal between a 4-6 year deal for approximately $5 million a season. Sounds like he'll be looking it over today. $5 million is less than I would expect Smyth would sign for, but I'll keep my fingers crossed.

Terry Jones of the Sun
sportsnet.ca

Personally, I'll hold off joy until it's been confirmed he's signed.

No Rory? Jokes' on the Fans...

Well it appears Don Cherry, Wayne Gretzky and Kelly Hrudey got their wish – Likeable journeyman Rory Fitzpatrick will not be in the All-Star game. Although I greatly admire and respect each of these men, I think they have failed to see the forest for the trees.

Like the first past the post voting system, the embarrassment that is fan-voting continues to punish players in small-markets and over-reward players in big markets. While could be Hart Trophy candidate Jarome Iginla (on a career pace, and simply dominating) is off the first ballot, as is highest goal/game in the league ‘grinder’ Ryan Smyth, as is the mini-dynamo Steve Sullivan, or the revitalized Teemu Selanne.

And that’s just the Western Conference.

Who was picked ahead of these three deserving athletes? The underwhelming Jonathan Cheechoo who has been hurt, and when healthy hasn’t even been having a great season. Now, arguably the duel Joes (Thornton and Sakic) have had good seasons, but neither in my opinion have had the same impact Smyth, Sullivan or Iginla have.

In the West, alternate Hart Trophy candidate Martin Broduer lost first ballot to a good, but not nearly as good Ryan Miller. Martin Broduer is pretty much the only reason the Devils are even in the league this year. And Brian Campbell? After all the talk about mediocre defenceman making it…I’m not saying Brian Campbell isn’t a very good 3 or 4 defenceman, but he is simply not on the same level as someone like Jay Bouwmeester.

I agree with Gretzky that only deserving players should go to the All-Star game. That’s exactly why All-Star voting should end as of now.

Big Skates to Fill...

With Jarome Iginla out at least a week (lets face it, probably 3-4 weeks), the Flames will need multiple players to step out of the shadows of mediocrity and come to play every night. Byron Ritchie proved the other night that he is more than capable of filling and surpassing the role the disappointing Chuck Kobasew plays. Alex Tanguay had a 3 point night playing with Lombardi and Kobasew, but if Tanguay believes that takes him off the hook, he is dreadfully mistaken. Since Tanguay's dissapointing start to the season he has been criticized in the media for being nothing more than a supplemental scorer, first behind Sakic, and now Iginla. If there was any chance for Tanguay to prove he can handle the load, this is it.

Kristian Huselius is another man with a question mark after his name. As I've stated numerous times on this blog, I love how he plays, he's a very important member of this team; but can Juice make the most of tough first line minutes, or is his success due almost fully to the presence of Jarome Iginla taking heat from other team's top defenceman?

Will the hurt Daymond Langkow become invisible once his best friend in the whole world isn't around, or will he be able to prove that his impressive stats and sublime gameplay aren't just a biproduct of having Jarome Iginla as his wingman.

The hapless pair of Jeff Friesen and Tony Amonte will not be expected to step up, only because they've been so bad everybody has forgotten they used to be somewhat useful hockey players. Jeff Friesen called his last season in Anaheim 'an embarressement,' so one can only imagine the personal shame he's feeling now. Perhaps that shame is overcome by his hefty $1.6 million paycheque though, as Friesen continues to show very little heart or visible desire to be a help to this team.

Tony Amonte on the other hand, is nothing but hardwork, unfortunately it appears he no longer has the skillset neccessary to score goals. On last Thursday's game versus the Panthers, Amonte was given multiple chances to make a positive impact on the game. He received set up after set up but couldn't convert, although he did manage an assist on a pretty set up play by Warrener.

In my opinion, this is the list of people needed to step up if the Flames are to have success without their captain. Whether the Flames crash and burn like the Oilers without Ryan Smyth, or succeed like the Maple Leafs without Mats Sundin, is a question that will be answered very quickly.