Monday, June 18, 2007

Oilers' Options Running Out



With the Flyers trading for and signing both Kimmo Timonen and Scott Hartnell, the Oilers have missed out on two of the top leading candidates for reinforcement positions. Many Oilers fans around the blogosphere had speculated that Hartnell would replace Ryan Smyth on the top line. Back at LT's, many even drew up line combinations with Scott Hartnell as a 'best case' scenario. In that case, best case just went out the window.

Timonen was certainly a nice potential option on defence. AOTR had a nice post up about Timonen's game impact with a comparison to various other '#1' defenceman, and I think they proved pretty well that Timonen stacks up very nicely.

LT has also been predicting that Lowe would make some sort of a splash at the draft, and I have no reason to disagree with him. Lowe's job is very much on the line, and his options are running out.

Some possible predictions for draft day (and July 1st) and probability of event happning:

Brad Richards is traded to Edmonton (30%) I agree with LT and others that his albatross of a contract has made him a trade target. Plus it would be a huge splash on the level of Peca+Pronger.
Upside - Oilers get one of the best players in the league
Downside - The Oilers pick up an albatross contract and lose a very good players as well

Scott Gomez is signed by Edmonton (50%) - His speed and playmaking ability make him a typical Oiler prospect. The fact he played on a defensive team shows he's MacTable (whatever that means)
Upside - Edmonton picks up a very very good playmaker who I would also consider a playoff performer.
Downside - Gomez may take up more cap space then his ability justifies. Think $6 million or so.

Joni Pitkanen is traded to Edmonton (35%) - Aquiring Timonen makes a move of another Philly defenceman more likely
Upside - Young, relatively cheap puck moving defenceman
Downside - large potential to give up a lot of assets and get an over-rated guy in return, + an add on albatross (Hatcher)

Wade Redden is traded to Edmonton (50%) - One year left on his contract, Ottawa potentially wants roster shakeup
Upside - Oilers get a two-way defenceman who reignites the Oiler offence and steadies the defence
Downside - Oilers could also get a guy who tends to lose often and is best when the rest of the team picks up his slack, also, the price may be high

Ryan Smyth is signed by the Oilers (1%) - Ryan somehow forgives and forgets, comes home.
Upside - The Oilers get their heart and soul back, Lowe looks like genius (again?)
Downside - None, unless the Oilers sign the Mullet for 6+

2 comments:

Black Dog said...

Feaster insists he's not trading Richards.

Duhatschek said yesterday that the Oilers are going to make some big moves next week, likely before the draft.

Likely right out of left field is my bet - 29 teams didn't win the Cup - that means 28 other teams are looking to get better and there are probably a few dozen players on the block that we don't even know about.

He also said the Blues are going to be big movers - they also have 3 picks in the first.

My guess on Oilers' targets - Hossa and Zidlicky.

Kyle said...

Well if the Oilers are making a move before the draft they're running out of days.

I don't think your 'left-field' comment is that far off though. These sorts of things are almost impossible to predict.

I think we all agree though that SOMETHING is going to happen.