Warrenergate

I touched on the subject during the summer, but once again Sutter has brought himself under fire thanks to his mismanagement of Warrenergate.

There was an anonymous commenter over at Kent's yesterday who in my opinion was either: a) an idiot, b) didn't understand the real issue or c) both.

Now it seems to me his/her position was that Kent et. al had no room to rant because they didn't know the whole story, and there was probably some sort of insider information that was the key variable (they then mocked Kent for not being an insider, which he never claimed to be anyway, SWEET!).

They also then commented that Boyd was going to play tonight anyway, so what was the difference?

I'll handle the second point first because it's the simplest to address. The anger wasn't so much because Boyd was sent to QC, it was because it wasn't a hockey decision. By all rights Boyd deserved to be on the team; he's had a great preseason, he was ok last year and he has a great pedigree.

Now onto the first point. Was there some invisible but still legitimate reason Boyd didn't make the team? Well, it was invisible only in the sense it was such a subtle and long process that most people aren't exactly putting the puzzle pieces together. Was it legitimate? Well, that depends on how you look at things; we KNOW it wasn't a hockey decision in the sense that worse players than Boyd made the team instead of Boyd, but it was a hockey decision in the sense that the Flames wouldn't have been able to play because they were above the cap and therefore wouldn't have been able to play (actually, I don't really know the penalty for being over the cap, anyone want to enlighten me?).

Let's recap the (relevant) events leading up to this incident:

Jun 28, 2007: Primeau signed to three year contract

Ok, first of all, the only thing that can be reasonably said to that is 'what the fuck?' It's not that Primeau is terrible, because he's mostly just bad, and it's not like his contract pay rate is so bad either, but why a three year term? Was it really necessary to get Primeau 'locked up' in the sense that he was such a desired player we didn't want him testing the market for fear of losing him? Could the Flames have not just signed him to a one year deal and then evaluated their coffers the next summer and if they were really desperate for centers resign him at that time?

5 Jul 2007 - Eriksson signs two year contract

The next event is slightly related to an even I've left off the list because it's like a negative event in that something didn't happen when it should have, but this signing was made 'necessary' because the Flames decided not to sign Giordano (Giordano was ahead of the fans as Matt notes here). But again, why did the Flames sign this guy to a two year deal? He was a minor role player in one of Detroit's cup wins, played in the RSL for a while, then apparently he's proved he can play in the NHL so much so that Sutter put two year's worth of faith in him? I mean, Sutter partly solved this little problem by hiding it in the AHL but it's just such a bizarre long shot asset management move that you have to think a lot would have had to go right for it to pay off.

Jul 1, 2008: Prust signed to one way contract

Another head scratcher. What had Prust done that had him deserving of a one way contract? I'm not going to go into it because you can't prove a negative but I'm welcome to someone challenging my point.

Jul 2, 2008: Vandermeer signed to three year contract

I think Flames management at least got an appreciation of what Vandermeer brings to the table, but I would say what he brings most of the time is 'toughness' and inconsistency. His first few games in Calgary I would say he was pretty effective, but by playoff time Keenan was utilizing him as a 13th forward. Utility forward/defenceman aren't exactly the most sought after commodity on the hockey market so one has to wonder why that while the coach wasn't really too interested in Vandermeer's skill set the GM was. And interested in it for 3 freaking years. And remember, this is a guy who was traded to Philadelphia last year who took a 1/3 of a season peek at him and decided to pass, and they're not exactly drowning in veteran NHL defenders there...

Jul 20, 2008:Andre Roy signed to contract

This is probably the most perplexing and infuriating move of them all. The Flames finally let Godard go, and then they pick up Roy. I'm not nearly as against the enforcer as is say, Kent, but why? Who is he even protecting on this team? Everyone on the Flames is a fighter. Iginla will fight. Langkow will fight. Regehr, Sarich, Vandermeer, Phaneuf, Primeau, Bertuzzi (watch out for his hook!) etc. etc. It's not even like the Flames are the Oilers with a bunch of undersized kids - this is pretty much a veteran roster, at least all the key components are. This is pretty much a complete waste of money and roster space.

All summer: not unloading Warrener

I mean, this has been discussed ad naseum but I have to say; Warrener is injured. There is no doubt. But he's been playing injured for at least a year, probably closer to two. The man just looks fragile out there, and although he's got the heart of a lion his body is just clearly unwilling. But he is no more injured today than he was on his last preseason game, and he's probably healthier than he's been other times he's played. My guess is that the LTIR move is simply so that he doesn't have to spend the remainder of his hockey days riding a bus in QC. But really, the simple and smart solution would have been to just buy Warrener out. That way he's totally off the books, doesn't have to play in QC; I mean, is being told your body is so messed that you're no longer of use to the team any more humiliating than being bought out? Is this really about Warrener's ego?

So was there a key variable that I, as a fan, missed that was the reason Boyd was sent to the QC (for a day). Not at all - the reason was lack of smart planning by the GM. Hell, I didn't even assault Sutter for not unloading Aucoin or trading for Aucoin, because at least those moves are moderately defendable.

I have to say, Sutter has his strengths, but this whole incident just makes him look dumb or at least overly and stupidly sentimental.

Craig Conroy

07-08 Projection:

Left the team after FA negotiations with Darryl Sutter fell apart in the summer of ’04, but seems ecstatic to be back. Was inconsistent in his return with the Flames in the spring, occasionally taking bad penalties. Either he has good chemistry with Iginla, or Iginla is so good he makes it look like he has chemistry with Conroy. Can be physical, but isn’t, or at least isn't often enough. Most talkative Flame.

07-08 Evaluation:
As much as I enjoy Craig Conroy, there is little to suggest he isn't on a relatively steep career decline in terms of ability. While the mind seems willing the flesh seems weak. Kent has made it a mission to articulate Conroy's offensive deficiencies and while I don't completely agree with Kent (I believe there are worse options on the Flames as well as better) he does have a very valid point. Conroy should not be on the first line.


While Conroy's behindthenet.ca column here actually looks pretty respectable I think there are a couple of things we need to remember:

Firstly, he was playing with topnotch teammates. Funny enough, Langkow is rated as having better teammates than Conroy which would imply that Langkow was bringing down the line, not Conroy - hey, I guess desjardin's system isn't perfect. The most important teammate anyone on the Flames can have though is Iginla, and Conroy often played with Iginla, and there is no doubt Iginla was hoisting Conroy's numbers up. Other things to note; Iginla always played against the top competition, therefore, Conroy played the top competition.

It is curious of course that Conroy had the top 2nd assists on the team. 2nd assists are a bit of an anomaly because there are so many different ways we can conceive of them happening - while first assists would tend mostly to be a direct intention of a scoring play, a 2nd assist could be as simple as a breakout pass or a dump in. Why does Conroy have the best on the team?

One theory is that it's just pure fluke - someone has to have the most second assists and Conroy just happens to be that person. I think the mostly likely explanation though is that his linemates (Iginla and either Tanguay or Huselius) happen to finish a lot of plays, and judging from the number of 1st assists Conroy has, they finish a lot of plays that he's not directly involved in, at least not puck wise. Anyone disagree?

I've been ragging on Conroy a bit and I really should add that he does still have some value. He reads the play well defensively and is used to playing pretty decent competition. There shouldn't be any reason why he can't be a very competent shutdown guy for the Flames, something the Flames haven't really had for a while.

Projection: 4th line
Key Stat: 1st overall quality of competition

Matthew Lombardi

07-08 Prediction

After a wild first ride in his first season with Calgary, in which he was severely concussed by Derian Hatcher during the playoffs, Lombardi has steadily increased his hockey sense and found ways to use his overwhelming speed to his advantage. Needs to become a better passer and needs more than one move on the penalty shot and shootout (forehand-backhand-fivehole, here’s hoping opposition goalies don’t take note…). Was Canada’s 2nd best forward in the 2007 World Championships playing next to Rick Nash (who was Canada’s best forward), thereby proving he has 1st line potential.

07-08 Evalutation
Despite everything my eye tells me when I watch Lombardi, he just seems unable to create offence. He flies around the ice, he's usually in good position, but he doesn't finish very often. Granted, we know Lombardi has been playing with some pretty poor linemates - but I don't think that's the entire reason he can't seem to put the puck in the net.

Below I have his EV stats, but I'd like to preface them by pointing out that I found Lombardi to be a very good penalty killer, very crafty when a man down.

Lombardi's stats are all so...middle of the road - maybe that's good considering who he was playing with, but I just feel like he should be doing better. He has two stats that jump out at me: His GF/60 is atrocious, while it seems that Keenan didn't pick up on it because he seemed to play Lombardi as much as anyone- more so it seems; his EVTOI/60 was third on forwards.

This year is going to have to be Lombardi's year; Backlund appears to be knocking on the door and the Flames simply have too many centerman. From the sounds of it Lombardi will get every opportunity to play on the second line; if he doesn't grab the position this year and make something of himself, he could become redundant.

for Kent's thoughts, click here.

Projection: 2nd line
Key Stat: 3rd place on forwards for TOI/60

When Bob McKenzie Speaks, I Listen

Popped onto my computer tonight after watching Entourage to write my piece about David Moss and I got a little distracted watching Bob McKenzie's '6 Cities in 6 Days' Calgary Flames 'evaluation.' I pretty much idolize McKenzie, he seems to me to be the far and away best hockey columnist in the world and I think when he says something about your team it pays to pay attention because it's more than likely he heard it from the horses mouth.

Now, McKenzie is saying that as of now, Bertuzzi is going to be accompanying Iginla and Langkow on the top line, while Lombardi will be flanked by Cammalleri and Bourque. It's the placement of three (Lombardi, Cammalleri, Bertuzzi) players out of that six that really interests me.

We know that both Cammalleri and Bertuzzi are used to playing soft opposition at EV, and we know that Cammalleri faired poorly even with top linemates while Bertuzzi did well but with top linemates (going by last year, of course). Judging by McKenzie's remarks, it looks like Keenan will give one (Cammalleri as of now) the soft opposition, while the other guy will get good linemates (Bertuzzi).

Happily, it looks like Lombardi might get a chance with decent linemates, something I think a lot of Flames fans have been waiting for for a long time.

The lines, as of today, look like this:

Bertuzzi - Langkow - Iginla
Cammalleri - Lombardi - Bourque

There is a third option though:

Conroy/Bourque - Langkow - Iginla
Cammalleri - Lombardi - Bertuzzi

Now, the Flames are pretty center heavy, and besides Iginla, there are no wingers who are going to most often outplay the top EV opposition - Bertuzzi and Bourque or Cammalleri could be pretty interchangeable there (except for potentially the offence they bring). On the other hand, Conroy for instance, is used to playing the other team's top opposition - he's playing off position but with so many centermen on this team it's pretty much bound to happen at some point anyway.

The beauty of this lineup is that Keenan can throw the 2nd line over the boards against the other team's muckers and with any luck they should be able to dominate. The skill level at least is overwhelming and Lombardi for sure has some defensive presence of mind in case things get really bad. This line could operate somewhat like whatever line MacTavish throws Gagner and Nilsson on; they play the weaker opposition and ya, sometimes they get caught with their pants down but on average they're probably going to come out on top.

Plus, this gives Boyd a spot on the third line to develop and get his sea legs while Primeau can hang around on the 4th. You could also argue this opens up a spot for Backlund to compete for: that third line one. If Boyd doesn't carpe diem Backlund might be able to get in there - he might also be able to go for the Primeau position but I don't think that would be the best for his development.

The drawbacks? Well I've already mentioned that during road games that second line could get caught out there. Secondly there isn't a lot of players on that line looking to take care of business in their own end - it could get seriously ugly at times. Finally, how hard does this hinder the first line? I would argue the effects of having Bourque out there instead of Cammalleri or Bertuzzi will be perceived to be much bigger than they actually are, but they could nonetheless exist.

Thoughts?

David Moss

07-08

Got his ‘cup of coffee’ in the NHL last season and showed some real potential. Uses his body effectively and plays bigger than his size. Has a pretty good nose for the net, scoring 10 goals in 41 games. Has to show consistency and will have to fight for a 2nd line roster spot this year. This picture is a great example of the way Moss plays – down and dirty.

07-08 Evaluation

Moss had a pretty interesting season mostly because we didn't really get any better idea of what he's capable of than we did during his cup of coffee the season prior. He played through most of the first third of the season, had an ankle injury (missed 14 games), played for another month or so, then missed another 19 games due to a leg injury. One can only assume that during his middle portion or so there that he was still recovering to some degree (getting back into game shape at least) and then same can be said when he returned from his leg injury.

His counting numbers are not impressive. 41 GP, 4G, 11PTS. He's got all the makings of a 4th liner all right.

To my eye though it always seemed as if Moss was getting lots of chances and creating offensive opportunities, if not simply because he just always seems to be 'around.' I don't think my eyes weren't deceiving me too much, but they weren't exactly dead on.

Here we see that he was playing with about the third liners of the team, and while it looks on his offensive categories he may not have been driving results, he was at least keeping pace, which leads me to believe that perhaps if he had better linemates, he'd keep a better pace.

Another thing to note of his offensive abilities regarding last year; his shooting percentage was about 7%, about half of his previous season with the Flames, and a solid 5% or so below his career average. If we can safely say that a player with a high shooting percentage will come down after a good year, can we also not predict that a player with a low shooting percentage will come back up after a year?

David Moss is never going to be a 1st line difference maker or anything like that, but I think if he was put with some speed (Glencross/Boyd) and some smarts he could put the puck in the net once in a while. As long as he stays healthy I believe he could prove his worth this year - one way or the other.

Kent's take on Moss from back in July(!)

Projection: 3rd line
Key Stat: 5th overall PTS/60

Curtis Glencross

This is a picture of Curtis Glencross (center) scoring against the Flames. As I recall that game was in November or so and his whole family came into town to watch it. He 'Stempniaked' the Flames, I believe the Jackets won 3-2 and he scored 2 goals. Ouch.

Glencross had quite a year, especially after he was traded to the Oilers. He only has 71 NHL games under his belt so the sample size is small but what we did see seemed to be something worth watching.


Glencross split games between MacT and Hitchcock but it seems they both utilized him in the same way: throw him out against the other team's bottom rungers and watch him fly.

I ranked him against all of his old Oiler teammates (simply as a matter of behindthenet.ca conveniance) , and while Glencross was playing with the worst teammates against the worst opponents, he must've been winning just about every battle out there. Check out the numbers of this '4th liner.'

2nd overall GF/60
6th overall PTS/60
1st overall GAON/60

Very impressive.

Out of all of Sutter's summer acquisitions, this one has the highest chance of paying off. It's a gamble because despite of all his stellar numbers, there's one dubious number: 71, total NHL games played. That's a pretty small sample size. Despite that I think it's a good gamble - Glencross is exactly the sort of upgrade depth guy the Flames could've used last year.

Here's what Kent and LT had to say about him.

I'd say there's a slim outside chance of Glencross making the 2nd line, but I would think at worst he's a decent 3rd line guy.

Projection: 3rd line
Key Stat: 1st overall GAON/60

Eric Nystrom

Unlike Dustin Boyd, we can't put up a photo of Eric Nystrom playing in the World Junior Championship; Nystrom played for Team USA, but that was in 2003 (the relevance of that photo is certainly waining) and besides, google images doesn't seem to have any copies of a photo of Nystrom in Team USA digs if any in fact exist.

Another difference between Nystrom and Boyd is that at 25, I think we can safely assume Nystrom has finished his growing pains. What we now see is what we're going to see for the rest of his career.

Not that what we see now is all bad. I think Nystrom has carved himself out a nice little niche as a 4th line energy guy - he crashes, he bangs, he cycles. He must be used sparingly though.

Nystrom isn't really in the red in any categories (good) but he certainly isn't in the green (bad). One thing that moderately concerns me but I haven't really discussed among any other player is Nystrom's corsi number - it's worse than any other player on the team. Now to my eye there is a lot of running around on Calgary when Nystrom is on the ice, and there are a lot of shots against. Certainly the corsi number supports that idea.

I think though if you put Nystrom out there with some half decent defensive guys he could be ok. His GAON/60 really isn't that bad, its certainly not as bad as the corsi number would suggest, so maybe the shot totals are up but the shot quality is down. There's hope anyway.

Projection: 4th line
Key Stat: 3rd ranked forward GAON/60.

edit: I would be negligent to forget to include Kent's take on Nystrom from back in August which is better than my own.

Dustin Boyd

Dustin Boyd played for Team Canada during one of their last 4 straight World Junior Championship wins, the second one in fact. This team was notable for a few things; one year after the dream team (Getzlaf, Phaneuf, Crosby, Richards etc), they played in Canada, two notable or infamous players were on that team, Steve Downie (who was fantastic) and Luc Bordon (RIP). Note, Andrew Cogliano also played on this team.

Boyd wasn't half bad himself; he scored 3 goals in the round robin (although none in the final 2 playoff games). At the time it seemed he had a bit of a scoring touch, could be a nice little 2nd liner.

Boyd hasn't been great.

There's probably a lot of reasons for his results: Firstly, Keenan has been playing him with just about the worst teammates possible. Not the absolute worst but pretty near the bottom. Secondly, Boyd is just young. He turned 22 in July so it's not really surprising he's unseasoned; Boyd needs time to develop, and he needs decent teammates to do it with.

I think the most interesting thing when you look at Dustin Boyd's desjardins numbers is that his point production is far ahead of where you would expect it to be given his linemates. Now, he doesn't pass Matt's 'line in the sand test' but the only players left on the Flames who did happened to be playing with Jarome Iginla (or happen to be Jarome Iginla).

Now, I'm not necessarily saying Boyd is going to jump out and score 25 goals this year, but prorate his effort last year we get close to 20. The Flames have virtually no scoring depth, so I think it would make sense to at least try playing him on one of the top two lines on a trial basis.

Obviously he's going to need someone on the line who can teach him to play defence, but Boyd still has promise. I think it's time to invest some playing time in him.

Projection: 3rd line
Key Stat: 2nd overall GF/60

Addendum: It's been a couple months since I last read Kent's musing on Boyd but he agrees with me (or I agree with him). Great minds I hope.

Marcus Nilson

Marcus Nilson is not a terrible hockey player. He's been grouped with a couple of players that are pretty much terrible (Eriksson, Warrener) but he's easily the class of that group. He scored 4 goals and 6pts for Sweden in this year's World Hockey Championships which to me shows that he must still have some gas left in the tank (more goals by the way than he had all year for the Flames). How much gas is of course up for debate.

I don't think we can claim that Mike Keenan was putting Nilson in a tremendously bad position. He was playing the absolute worst competition and at times his linemates were downright middle of the pack. Certainly he wasn't getting a lot of icetime, but I think Keenan was justified in restricting Nilson's icetime.

The best thing that can be said about Nilson, and it can't be said of everyone, is that he wasn't drowning in his position. He was at worst treading water and if his job is to stop his opponents from scoring he is succeeding.

Projection: 4th liner
Key Stat: 1st overall in GAON

Dion Phaneuf

07-08 Prediction:

Had an up and down season in 06-07. Opposition began to compensate for Phaneuf’s presence on the blueline, but he still managed 17 goals, 4 game winners. Destroyed Denis Hamel early on in the year with a thundering check, but was quieter than his rookie year. Did not mesh well with Robyn Regehr. Ice time increased. Asked to play a pure shutdown/containment role for Canada in the World Championships, Phaneuf was nothing less than spectacular.

07-08 Evaluation:
Phaneuf's counting numbers continued their increasingly impressive rise to 17 goals and and 60 points. I don't think he had any single highlight reel hits this year but that's ok, I'm more concerned with his actual defensive presence.

I don't think there was any better illustration of Phaneuf's shortcomings than in the playoffs against San Jose. While there was no doubt he was contributing offensively (3G, 7PTS), it was nothing less than heart attack hockey seeing him go against Joe Thornton. It's unfair to accuse Phaneuf of not being strong enough, but quite frankly, he just couldn't handle Thornton, especially down low. There's no shame in that obviously, Thornton is one of the league's elite. It just appears that Phaneuf isn't, at least when it comes to defensive zone coverage. Not yet anyway.Looking at behindthenet.ca numbers I think we can get a bit of a year long illustration of what I'm saying. His offensive numbers are all stellar, (1st in GFON for defencemen, 1st in pts/60 for defencemen, etc). He's obviously a workhorse (1st overall in EVTOI/60) but I have to think that at least some of his totals are because of the fact he gets top notch teammates.

The disappointing part of the behindthenet.ca numbers come in the fact we can see he's facing 2nd tier opposition and not really stopping them from scoring goals. He's not even in the first half of defenceman in terms of opposition shutdown ability.

Right now Phaneuf is a very good defenceman, but if he ever hopes to win that Norris he was nominated for he needs to tighten up his defensive zone coverage.

Projection: number 1 defenceman
Key Stat: 1st for defenceman in GFON and PTS/60

Robyn Regehr

07-08 Prediction:
Calgary’s best defenceman, he uses his size and positioning to punish opposition forwards. Calgary was simply a worse team when Regehr didn’t play. Offensive upside is limited, but managed to crank out 4 points in 7 games against Anaheim in the playoffs of 05-06. Is committed to the Flames and to winning, signing a below market value extension in the summer of 07.

07-08 Evaluation:
The picture above is of Robyn slamming Selanne right behind the defensive zone net, which is appropriate because that's his signature move and because he apparently has a distaste for Selanne that runs far deeper than any other NHLer.

Robyn Regehr's season can't really be described by any word other than workhorse. He played 82 games facing the toughest opposition of any defenceman and the second toughest opposition overall playing with just about the worst teammates of all defenceman.

He kept up his clutch playoff reputation by putting up 2 assists in 7 games and shadowing Joe Thornton into oblivion.


Last year Regehr played with Cory Sarich but I expect this year he'll get Phaneuf as his partner, and so his counting numbers will likely increase. If Keenan continues his power vs power strategy, I would also expect Regehr's defensive numbers (GAON) to improve as well. Having real teammates can only help him.

The only real question about Regehr is who is going to replace him on the second pairing?

Projection: 1st pairing defenceman
Key Stat: 2nd overall and 1st defenceman in opposition difficulty

Cory Sarich

I'm sure this picture is a little painful for most Flames fans but I think it's important to remember that at one point Cory Sarich won the Cup and it may not hold as much weight as the MSM may indicate but it does have value.

Most Flames fans that I have talked to seem to agree Sarich is overpaid ($3.6 cap hit) but the higher the cap rises the more appropriate his salary seems to get. He's not a bad defensive defenceman, doesn't do anything great but nothing terrible either. Generally makes safe plays and obviously had that one incredible hit on Patrick Marleau in the 08 playoffs.

Looking at his desjardins numbers there is a lot of red, but thankfully it's exactly where we would expect it to be; at his offensive numbers. Make no mistake, Cory Sarich was not brought on board to score goals, he was brought on board to stop them.

As was obvious to anyone who watched the Flames last season, Sarich played with Regehr on what basically amounted to a defensive shutdown unit. Sarich played the second toughest opposition minutes for defenseman (behind Regehr, so basically equal toughness) and did not a bad job; his GAON were 3rd among defenceman, behind Vandermeer and Aucoin who both played against much lesser opposition.

I have a feeling this year that Regehr will be paired with Phaneuf and therefore Sarich has to expect a new defensive partner at EV. Without Regehr at his side I imagine his play will remain steady but now Flames fans will be able to get a better picture of how much of a difference maker he really is.

Projection: 2nd pairing defenceman
Key Stat: 2nd quality of opposition among defenceman

Mark Giordano

07-08 Prediction:

Playing the role of Calgary’s 6^th defenceman in 06-07, Giordano was nothing but stellar. He has good wheels, good hockey sense and has shown he can step it up in pressure situations. Ate up softer minutes. Was not favoured by Jim Playfair.

August 15: Marc Giordano is unsigned (Battle of Alberta)

07-08 Evaluation:
Mark Giordano is one of the biggest question marks on the roster coming into this season. Although his contributions a season ago were unquestionably favourable, he is now a year and a half removed from playing with Calgary and spent last season toiling in the now defunct (transmogrified?) RSL.

According to behindthenet.ca Giordano played the worst opposition of all Flames defenceman, but he had the worst teammates as well. He was 5th among defencemen in GFON/60 and 4th in GAON/60.

He certainly didn't take a leap forward offensively in Russia, (48GP, 7G, 15PTS Calgary, 50GP, 4G 13PTS Moscow) although I can't tell what sort of opposition he played or what sort of teammates he was given.

What I do know is that he was good enough in Europe to attract the attention of Hockey Canada officials and he was named to Canada's Spengler Cup Team and then to the World Championship entry as an alternate. I think Flames fans can take that as a good sign.

I think if Giordano can play a top 4 role for the Flames at even strength, they'll be in a good position come April. I think if Aucoin is forced to play that role, the Flames will be in trouble.


Projection: 2nd pairing defenceman

Adrian Aucoin

I debated about whether to place Aucoin behind or ahead of Giordano, but the more I think about it the more I think I'd much rather have Giordano on the second pairing. It's not that I think Aucoin is devoid of ability, quite the contrary. I think he still has ok offensive instincts and his defence isn't bad - it's just not great either.

His mobility last year was just so awful- I can't recall all the instances I saw him get beat on the outside.

Looking at Aucoin's desjardins numbers I think Keenan evaluated Aucoin in much the same way. The only defenceman playing lesser competition and getting less EV ice time was Vandermeer and Warrener.

The good news is that I think Aucoin did pretty well in the situations he played in (on average). His GFON was pretty middle of the pack but his offensive stats are definitely better than average.

My hope for the upcoming season is that Aucoin is sheltered from the tough competition and utilized as a nice weapon against the softies.

Projection: 3rd pairing defenceman (#1 PP Unit)
Key Stat: #1 defenceman goals/60

Jim Vandermeer

I think the first thing that needs to be said about Jim Vandermeer is that he's played the equivalent of just over 3 full NHL seasons and played for 4 teams. Granted he's made 2 stops on Broad St., but I don't think this can be construed in a complimentary way. Another thing to note is that although I've categorized him as a defenceman (as has topps trading card company) but Sutter utilized him as a forward on several occasions. Not really sure if that's a testament to Vandermeer's versatility, an insult to his defensive ability or an insult to the effectiveness of the Flames forward group.

Looking at his desjardins numbers it becomes clear that Vandermeer was sheltered by his coaches as his quality of competition rating is much lower than his quality of teammates. Now as far as I know these desjardins numbers are for the whole year and not just his time in Calgary which could explain his high ranking in GAON. Either he did a good job or benefited from playing on some decent teams with good lineups. For the moment though it looks as though if you shelter Vandermeer and give him some lower quality of competition he could do alright.

Projection: 3rd pairing defenceman
Key Stat: 4 overall in GAON

Anders Eriksson

I don't think there's a lot of positive that can be said about Anders Eriksson in terms of hockey skills. He's not confident with the puck and is consistently prone to making errors, many of them pretty big. He's also pretty bad without the puck in terms of reading the play and positioning himself effectively. He's also pretty bad 1-1.

I think part of the problem is that Anders simply isn't very good, but I think part of the problem was quicksand. Quicksand is a term I first heard in the movie 'The Replacements' starring Keanu Reeves. It refers to a player in sports who makes a single error and puts himself in a hole. To get out of the hole the player tries to make an even bigger play and creates an even bigger error and so deeper he goes, and the cycle continues until he is buried. Quicksand.

I think we can explain a lot of Eriksson's problems with this analogy. He was paired with Phaneuf for most of the year and was clearly overwhelmed and maybe he just tried to do too much. Maybe. Maybe he's just bad. Probably.

Projection: AHL defenceman - Sutter sends Eriksson down and brings him up only due to injuries - we'll take the risk of another team grabbing him on waivers
Key Stat: Worst GAON for all Flames defenders

Rhett Warrener

07-08 Season Prediction:

Arguably has more heart than anyone else on the team, playing through various (and obviously painful) potential career ending injuries. Played his best hockey of 06-07 in the playoffs but is not capable of playing a top 6 role with injuries anymore. Needs a speedy defence partner to be most effective, but tends to read the play well. Can still dish out punishment. Lack of speed is a big issue.

07-08 Evaluation:

I think everything I said at the beginning of last season is still true now. Warrener's position with the team hasn't really changed; he shouldn't be playing on the top 6 and it seems like Sutter has sent the message that he shouldn't be playing with the team at all.

We see a lot of red in Warrener's little profile here. Keenan was hiding Warrener at EV big time. He was played the least of any defender, against the worst competition. His teammates were also pretty bad but he had to be among the worst of them.

Projection: 7th defender - Sutter won't put him in the minors to avoid the cap hit, even if he should.
Key Stat: second to last defender in terms of GAON.

Updated Player Profiles On The Way

We're only a couple weeks away from NHL training camps beginning in earnest and I think the best way to predict the future is to evaluate the past. In doing so I will be updating and expanding my player profiles.

I probably won't be saying anything that hasn't been said before but I think the scale of the project hasn't really been taken on as of yet and I think that even if I don't have anything new to say I will be able to confirm some suspicions I (and others) have had.

My method was fairly straightforward but without explaining it some of my conclusions will be pretty questionable so here it is:

I took the behindthenet.ca EV numbers from the 07-08 season for all returning Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers and ranked them in all categories overall and positionally (except for corsi). If a player was ranked 1st either overall or positionally he gets a turquoise highlight of the cell, a red cell fill means that player was last place either overall or positionally.

Importantly, the rankings are based ONLY on the returning players. It was an arbitrary decision but I think there are a couple advantages. For instance, we can see what sorts of holes we're left with after the loss of players. In terms of the Flames, Huselius and Tanguay in particular left massive EV holes and because of this, Wayne Primeau is our third ranking returning forward in terms of opposition. That's bad. Secondly, I think it unclutters things. Since those players are gone their stats are noise, not target. We can pinpoint what they did well and what we need to replace, but either way we need to evaluate who will be best for what role now, and those ex players are useless for that.

I've also included incoming players for both the Flames and Oilers. Their rankings are based on their placement with their former teams in the 07-08 season, but their rankings include players that might have been traded from their team. This makes things a little ugly in terms of interpretations but it was purely a practicality thing. I really just didn't want to get into 6 different teams and figure out who was moved, what the roster looks like now, etc. Nonetheless, I think we can still infer some valuable information about their previous role and what they might be doing in the upcoming season.

Dion Phaneuf or Jay Bouwmeester

I've made it no secret that I am a Jay Bouwmeester fan. Way back in the early 2000s I had a fantasy trade made in my head for him: Jarome Iginla for Jay Bouwmeester and Roberto Luongo. Think the proposition was inane?

Remember this was when Bouwmeester was closer to 18 years old and Roberto was about 20. Iginla had just scored 52 goals and a gold medal in the Olympics. Eventually Luongo (probably the more valuable piece) went for Bertuzzi, and not even a Bertuzzi in his prime. Jay Bouwmeester will be gone next year; he's obviously unhappy in Florida.

Not sure if that trade would have really benefited the Flames. Iginla is still probably worth more than both of them - if he's not the best he's damn close. (Feel free to debate both these points).

Anyway, the point of all this background is that the other day MG brought up the possibility of Sutter going after Bouwmeester. He meets all of Sutter's criteria (from Alberta) except one (not old). In the comments section I brought up my personal bias that if I had to make the choice I would probably take Bouwmeester. MG argued that although Bouwmeester may be the better player, Phaneuf had the higher ceiling.

I decided to dig a little deeper to compare the numbers between these two defenceman. First, the counting numbers:


On first glance they look pretty close, but obviously Jay has played a couple of extra seasons, so we can take a look at counting numbers based on games played. As is plainly obvious, Dion outshines Jay at just about every opportunity. GPG, APG, PPG, SPG, +/-.


We can probably explain some of the difference thusly: Jay Bouwmeester plays on a terrible team, Dion Phaneuf plays on a pretty good team (that is admittedly going downhill.) How much does this affect account for the difference in counting numbers? Hard to say.

Now let's take a look at the Desjardins numbers. I went back to 06-07, Phaneuf's second year and Bouwmeester's third.

06-07 Behind the net numbers

One of the first things that jumps out at me is what a good comp these two make. Look at their even strength ice time totals; about 17 minutes a night each. We can also see that Phaneuf clearly played with better teammates - not surprising, Florida simply didn't have the players Calgary did. Bouwmeester also faced stiffer competition, if only just.

Also take a quick look at each players contribution to team point production. Bouwmeester actually had twice the +/-ON that Phaneuf did - and while the team had a better +/- when Phaneuf took a seat on the bench, Florida imploded when Bouwmeester wasn't on the ice. Bouwmeester actually had the second best ON +/- on the team (players with more than 10 games), next only to Jokinen. Bouwmeester had the team's best OFF+/-, meaning the team had the biggest drop in efficiency when he left the ice.

Phaneuf was 12th on the Flames in ON+/-. This is both due to the fact he had better teammates, but I would also bet it's simply because he's less effective at EV.

Now, Dion does obviously have a few positives. To start, the Flames drew more penalties when Dion was on the ice than Florida did when Bouwmeester was on(151 to 95) but they also took more (149 to 135).

Moving on to the 07-08 season we can see a couple changes. Bouwmeester has an extra minute and a half at EV, and while Phaneuf's competition and teammates have stayed about equal, Bouwmeester has begun to face much better opposition.

07-08 Behind the net numbers

The scoring breakdown begins to separate the two here as well. Phaneuf is putting pucks in the net at about twice the rate of Bouwmeester. They both make first assists at about the same rate (Phaneuf slight edge) but Phaneuf makes second assists at about twice the rate of Bouwmeester. Dion also holds an edge in GFON, and to my surprise, GAON.

I think in cases like this it's important to compare within the team rather than between teams, and in that regard Bouwmeester is ranked 4th in GFON, behind Horton, Booth and Weiss while he's ranked 6th in GAON. To note, his ranking between the two stats is 10th on his team, but on closer inspection he's playing significantly better competition than anyone ranked about him. He's number 1 on the team in terms of competition.

Phaneuf is ranked number 5 for GFON on the Flames, impressive considering the players ahead of him (Iginla, Langkow, Tanguay, Huselius). He is however ranked 17th in GAON, not so impressive. He's 8th on the team overall in the combined GF/GAON+/-. Phaneuf ranks 7 on the team in quality of competition.

What's the conclusion?

No idea really. They're obviously both great players and it's obvious Dion is scoring at a higher rate but it's hard to say whether that's purely due to his teammates or his skill. The Desjardins stats on these guys are also definitely affected by their coaches personal preferences and styles. It looks like Martin leaned heavily on Bouwmeester at even strength more so to shutdown thereby giving the skilled offensive guys the lesser competition to go against while Phaneuf is out there in a power vs power to try run and gun it out.

Personally, I think it's reasonable and even likely to suggest Phaneuf has a higher ceiling of offensive ability but in practice it looks like Bouwmeester has just been shouldered with a lot more defensive responsibility on a much weaker team. It would be interesting to see him on a line with Iginla and Langkow and until he gets those line mates I'm not willing to draw a line in the sand.

Time To Hit the Old Dusty Trail...

During the Flames' beauty 2004 Stanley Cup run I couldn't help but think how the city's opinion of management would change down the road. After inheriting the team about a season and a half earlier, Darryl Sutter missed the playoffs for the first time in his career. Flames fans weren't exactly surprised, they had missed the playoffs for 7 straight seasons, but for Darryl it was an embarrassment. Never mind that he only had half a season to turn the team around (and did a hell of a job), it was something he, as a Sutter, wouldn't accept.

He made all the right moves. Signed some goalie named Miikka Kiprusoff who turned out to be somewhat of a saviour. He out coached some of the best minds in the business. He cultivated an unknown but exceptionally effective defensive group. He got the most out of a crop of 3rd liners including Marcus Nilson, Sean Donovan and the irrepressible Ville Niemenen. I'm sure there are coaches out there today still wondering how he Sutter did it.

Sutter was God-Like. He brought Calgary out of the gutters and into the stars, even if only for one season. If a fan questioned Sutter during that time the only thing a rational person could do is roll their eyes and shake their head.

'That will all change one day though' is what I kept thinking. In the world of the hockey GM, today's hero is tomorrow's goat.

Tomorrow is today.

It's not so much that Sutter has been a complete disaster. This team is better now than it was before he manned the helm. They're a perennial playoff team (and will certainly be a contender to make the playoffs this year) and although they've only made it past the first round one time, they have been in two separate 'Game 7s.'

Sutter has some strengths which I think we can all agree on:

• Identifying his core players (Iginla, Regehr, Kipprusoff, Phaneuf)
• Turning trash into treasure (Kipprusoff, Huselius, Nolan, Ference, Hale, Giordano)
• Gets consistently good performances out of top players (Iginla, Langkow, Phaneuf, Regehr)
• OK at developing rookies (Phaneuf, Lombardi)
  

Sutter also has some weaknesses which I think we can generally agree on:

• Allows useful players to leave for nothing (Giordano, Hale, Clark)
• Had a tendency to hire his ex players, seemingly not on merit (Amonte, Friesen, Primeau, Stuart, Nolan, Smith, Marchment, Zyuzin)
• Takes shots in the dark on trades/signings (Amonte, Nolan, Bertuzzi, McCarty, Lundmark)
• Isn't good at identifying coaching talent (Playfair, Keenan)
• Doesn't develop much in house talent (successes include Phaneuf, Lombardi, Moss? Boyd??)
• Tends to prefer old overpriced FA veterans instead (Amonte, McCarty, Aucoin, Leclerc, Weimer, Smith, Primeau, Nolan, Bertuzzi)
• Hasn't restocked the pipeline (top prospect is Backlund but others don't look promising)
  

Is that a fair assessment?

I thought I was a bit tardy with this post, especially since CJ and Duncan have both already had great posts on relatively the same subject.

However, I think Lowe getting bumped upstairs the other day brings new relevance to the idea of Sutter moving on. The team simply hasn't progressed the last 2 seasons, and the shuffling of deck chairs has hardly been useful. Take for instance this offseason. Sutter made a nice move for Glencross to solidify his bottom six forwards up front, but was forced to make a desperate move for Bertuzzi because he has zero youngsters ready to fill a top 6 wing position. Jim Vandermeer gets resigned, probably because the Flames are making a Vandermeer family band, and for some reason Sutter acknowledges that Warrener and Eriksson are useless but doesn't do anything relevant about it besides embarrassing one of the most respected guys in the dressing room.

I think it's time for Sutter to move on.

There is of course no way Sutter gets outright fired. Much like Lowe, the Flames management team is enamoured with Darryl Sutter. For the good of the team though, I thing someone in the ownership group needs to suggest Darryl take a 'promotion' and the Flames hire someone outside the organization who will make (or at least suggest) the hockey decisions from now on.