Warrenergate

I touched on the subject during the summer, but once again Sutter has brought himself under fire thanks to his mismanagement of Warrenergate.

There was an anonymous commenter over at Kent's yesterday who in my opinion was either: a) an idiot, b) didn't understand the real issue or c) both.

Now it seems to me his/her position was that Kent et. al had no room to rant because they didn't know the whole story, and there was probably some sort of insider information that was the key variable (they then mocked Kent for not being an insider, which he never claimed to be anyway, SWEET!).

They also then commented that Boyd was going to play tonight anyway, so what was the difference?

I'll handle the second point first because it's the simplest to address. The anger wasn't so much because Boyd was sent to QC, it was because it wasn't a hockey decision. By all rights Boyd deserved to be on the team; he's had a great preseason, he was ok last year and he has a great pedigree.

Now onto the first point. Was there some invisible but still legitimate reason Boyd didn't make the team? Well, it was invisible only in the sense it was such a subtle and long process that most people aren't exactly putting the puzzle pieces together. Was it legitimate? Well, that depends on how you look at things; we KNOW it wasn't a hockey decision in the sense that worse players than Boyd made the team instead of Boyd, but it was a hockey decision in the sense that the Flames wouldn't have been able to play because they were above the cap and therefore wouldn't have been able to play (actually, I don't really know the penalty for being over the cap, anyone want to enlighten me?).

Let's recap the (relevant) events leading up to this incident:

Jun 28, 2007: Primeau signed to three year contract

Ok, first of all, the only thing that can be reasonably said to that is 'what the fuck?' It's not that Primeau is terrible, because he's mostly just bad, and it's not like his contract pay rate is so bad either, but why a three year term? Was it really necessary to get Primeau 'locked up' in the sense that he was such a desired player we didn't want him testing the market for fear of losing him? Could the Flames have not just signed him to a one year deal and then evaluated their coffers the next summer and if they were really desperate for centers resign him at that time?

5 Jul 2007 - Eriksson signs two year contract

The next event is slightly related to an even I've left off the list because it's like a negative event in that something didn't happen when it should have, but this signing was made 'necessary' because the Flames decided not to sign Giordano (Giordano was ahead of the fans as Matt notes here). But again, why did the Flames sign this guy to a two year deal? He was a minor role player in one of Detroit's cup wins, played in the RSL for a while, then apparently he's proved he can play in the NHL so much so that Sutter put two year's worth of faith in him? I mean, Sutter partly solved this little problem by hiding it in the AHL but it's just such a bizarre long shot asset management move that you have to think a lot would have had to go right for it to pay off.

Jul 1, 2008: Prust signed to one way contract

Another head scratcher. What had Prust done that had him deserving of a one way contract? I'm not going to go into it because you can't prove a negative but I'm welcome to someone challenging my point.

Jul 2, 2008: Vandermeer signed to three year contract

I think Flames management at least got an appreciation of what Vandermeer brings to the table, but I would say what he brings most of the time is 'toughness' and inconsistency. His first few games in Calgary I would say he was pretty effective, but by playoff time Keenan was utilizing him as a 13th forward. Utility forward/defenceman aren't exactly the most sought after commodity on the hockey market so one has to wonder why that while the coach wasn't really too interested in Vandermeer's skill set the GM was. And interested in it for 3 freaking years. And remember, this is a guy who was traded to Philadelphia last year who took a 1/3 of a season peek at him and decided to pass, and they're not exactly drowning in veteran NHL defenders there...

Jul 20, 2008:Andre Roy signed to contract

This is probably the most perplexing and infuriating move of them all. The Flames finally let Godard go, and then they pick up Roy. I'm not nearly as against the enforcer as is say, Kent, but why? Who is he even protecting on this team? Everyone on the Flames is a fighter. Iginla will fight. Langkow will fight. Regehr, Sarich, Vandermeer, Phaneuf, Primeau, Bertuzzi (watch out for his hook!) etc. etc. It's not even like the Flames are the Oilers with a bunch of undersized kids - this is pretty much a veteran roster, at least all the key components are. This is pretty much a complete waste of money and roster space.

All summer: not unloading Warrener

I mean, this has been discussed ad naseum but I have to say; Warrener is injured. There is no doubt. But he's been playing injured for at least a year, probably closer to two. The man just looks fragile out there, and although he's got the heart of a lion his body is just clearly unwilling. But he is no more injured today than he was on his last preseason game, and he's probably healthier than he's been other times he's played. My guess is that the LTIR move is simply so that he doesn't have to spend the remainder of his hockey days riding a bus in QC. But really, the simple and smart solution would have been to just buy Warrener out. That way he's totally off the books, doesn't have to play in QC; I mean, is being told your body is so messed that you're no longer of use to the team any more humiliating than being bought out? Is this really about Warrener's ego?

So was there a key variable that I, as a fan, missed that was the reason Boyd was sent to the QC (for a day). Not at all - the reason was lack of smart planning by the GM. Hell, I didn't even assault Sutter for not unloading Aucoin or trading for Aucoin, because at least those moves are moderately defendable.

I have to say, Sutter has his strengths, but this whole incident just makes him look dumb or at least overly and stupidly sentimental.

Dustin Boyd

Dustin Boyd played for Team Canada during one of their last 4 straight World Junior Championship wins, the second one in fact. This team was notable for a few things; one year after the dream team (Getzlaf, Phaneuf, Crosby, Richards etc), they played in Canada, two notable or infamous players were on that team, Steve Downie (who was fantastic) and Luc Bordon (RIP). Note, Andrew Cogliano also played on this team.

Boyd wasn't half bad himself; he scored 3 goals in the round robin (although none in the final 2 playoff games). At the time it seemed he had a bit of a scoring touch, could be a nice little 2nd liner.

Boyd hasn't been great.

There's probably a lot of reasons for his results: Firstly, Keenan has been playing him with just about the worst teammates possible. Not the absolute worst but pretty near the bottom. Secondly, Boyd is just young. He turned 22 in July so it's not really surprising he's unseasoned; Boyd needs time to develop, and he needs decent teammates to do it with.

I think the most interesting thing when you look at Dustin Boyd's desjardins numbers is that his point production is far ahead of where you would expect it to be given his linemates. Now, he doesn't pass Matt's 'line in the sand test' but the only players left on the Flames who did happened to be playing with Jarome Iginla (or happen to be Jarome Iginla).

Now, I'm not necessarily saying Boyd is going to jump out and score 25 goals this year, but prorate his effort last year we get close to 20. The Flames have virtually no scoring depth, so I think it would make sense to at least try playing him on one of the top two lines on a trial basis.

Obviously he's going to need someone on the line who can teach him to play defence, but Boyd still has promise. I think it's time to invest some playing time in him.

Projection: 3rd line
Key Stat: 2nd overall GF/60

Addendum: It's been a couple months since I last read Kent's musing on Boyd but he agrees with me (or I agree with him). Great minds I hope.

A Look Back: World Junior Championships 2006

Besides being a world class tournament in terms of entertainment, I've always felt the World Junior Championships gives a nice peak into the future in terms of the type and usefulness of particular players. As someone who follows Junior hockey about as closely as I follow soap operas, most of the names in the tournament are new to me, besides of course the guys that have hype follow them around like a lost puppy. This year I think we can safely say that the hype is primarily following John Tavares, the phenom who was drafted into the OHL at age 14 after being granted 'exceptional player status,' allowing him to bypass the usual minimum age of 16. He was cut from last year's junior team, the first time in his life he had been cut by a team. Last March he bested Gretzky's record of goals by a 16 year old in the OHL, scoring 71 in a season. This December he was named to the team. Despite this, the scouting reports have been a little bit mixed about Tavares; most agree that his vision and playmaking is very good, but there are a few questions about his skating, ala Brad Richards or Jason Spezza. Despite this, Tavares would probably go number one in this year's NHL Entry Draft, if he were eligible.

In the 2006 edition of the World Juniors I would have to say the hype really surrounded a couple of American kids, Eric and Jack Johnson (no relation). On Team Canada though, there was a lot of hoopla around a kid named Steve Downie, but for all the wrong reasons.

Direct from Wikipedia:

Downie was suspended for 5 games early in the 2005-06 OHL season for on-ice altercations with a teammate during practice. Downie blindly cross-checked and then fought teammate Akim Aliu during practice on September 28, knocking out 3 of Aliu's teeth. ^[1] The incident stemmed from 16 year old Aliu's refusal to take part in a hazing incident, which involved rookies being forced to stand naked in a cramped bus bathroom. The team suspended Downie for five games and Aliu for one, and Downie was told to undergo professional counselling. (Wikipedia)

The part of the story that Wikipedia didn't mention was how Downie was in a car accident when he was 8. His dad, the driver, was killed driving Downie to a hockey practice. In addition, Downie lost a lot of his hearing in one ear due to an unrelated condition. He was my favorite story that year.

He was a real pest to the opposition, drawing many many penalties. In the Gold medal game against the Russians he simply dominated Evgeni Malkin, both in terms of production (scoring the opener, also the winner) and in terms of the mental game. No one would ever accuse Downie of having more talent than Malkin, but his will to win that day was unmatched by anyone on either team. It was a real beauty to watch.

The 2006 edition of team Canada also brought in a couple of revelations for the Alberta teams, Calgary and Edmonton.

The 2004/2005 teams had featured Calgary's great white hope, Dion Phaneuf, doing his best Al MacInnis/Scott Stevens impressions. In the middle of the 2004 season, before the Flames glorious run to the final, a friend asked me if Phaneuf would be better than Leopold - better, I told him. He had so many tools to work with it was hard to see how Dion wouldn't be a force. I think Dion has got a little ways to go before he's truly one of the greats, but he still shows something every night that is impressive.

The 2006 edition didn't have a heralded prospect like Phaneuf for the Flames or Oilers, but as the tournament progressed, a skilled, speedy center stood out for Team Canada. Dustin Boyd was a guy I was pretty unfamiliar with, but a guy that constantly suprised me with his skill and thinking ability. He was not the prototypical Calgary draft pick - he wasn't that big, and he wasn't that strong - (to give you an idea of who the Flames were looking for, Chris Chucko was picked first for the Flames, then Brandon Prust, then Dustin Boyd).

There were some question marks about Boyd early in this season, he didn't have much of a chance to make the team with the overload of centers in the Calgary lineup. He was eventually called up, probably to shake things up, and he has not looked out of place. He has 2G and 1A in 13 games, including a real beauty against Carolina the other night, a real goal scorers goal, composure and all. He's playing over 10 minutes a game, more than Nilson, Yelle, Primeau, Smith and Godard. Boyd has a ways to go before being a real difference maker or even a regular NHLer, but he's certainly showing small flashes of brilliance at the NHL similar to what he showed at the World Juniors.

The Oilers, for their part, haven't really had a key player for Team Canada for a while. JD Deslauriers and Devan Dubnyk were invited to tryout camps but were non factors. Robbie Schremp never really made an impact with Team USA, except for causing some controversy. There was some reason to be optimistic about a speedy college player name Andrew Cogliano. Don Cherry lamented the fact the Leafs did not snatch Andrew Cogliano, choosing Tuukka Rask instead (then trading him away for Andrew Raycroft).

Cogliano was a guy I really liked as a player. Very hard working, very speedy - but one thing that he has shown in the NHL that he never showed in the World Juniors, was his finish. Cogliano in many ways reminded me of another speedy (ex) Edmonton Oiler - Todd Marchant. He was very defensively responsible, got a lot of breakaways, and rarely scored. He had 5 points in 6 games, scoring only 1 goal. Goals or not though, there was enough to like about Cogliano to think he could at least be a solid role player in the NHL.

As Edmonton fans now know, Cogliano is the real deal. He's a solid NHLer in many ways - 6G and 10A in 34 games, good enough for 4th on the team, despite being 18th in terms of icetime, playing only about 14 minutes a game. He's ranked 14th in terms of PP time, far behind the other three players ahead of him in points. He is however ranked about 14th in terms of quality of competition on the team, so the his points may be slightly inflated due to some softer minutes. The fact he has 2 SHG is extremely impressive.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like Flames and Oilers fans have much to scout at this years World Junior Championships, however, if you want a head start in watching tommorow's stars, tune in, December 26th, as Canada takes on the Czech Republic noon MST.