Raffi Torres

Possibly the most inconsistent Oiler on the ice game in and game out. Has a terrific shot and can score at key times (see WCQF Edmonton vs. San Jose Game 3). Is the best hitter on the Oilers and one of the best in the NHL, when he does it, but is not consistently physical enough. Sometimes has shifts where he plays like a chicken with his head cut off.

Reports are that Raffi dropped most of his bad off ice habits and friends to focus on training and winning. Needs to be a better even strength player for the Oilers this season if the team is to have any success, but I also believe he should get more PP time. Is lucky enough to often shotgun for Jarret Stoll and is one of many ex World Jr. Championship alumni on the team.

5/5 = Playoffs

While the odds of the Edmonton Oilers actually making the playoffs is dwindling faster than Sean Avery's chances of winning the Lady Byng, the faithful still believe there is a Lloyd Christmas dating Mary Swanson chance of making it. And while Scarlett at Only Oil has come up with a number I agree with, I would like clarify it even further.

The Oilers play the currently in 8th place, the Minnesota Wild, a total of FIVE times over the last 30 odd games of the season. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that if the Oilers can take all 5 games in regulation, they will squeak into the playoffs for a second straight year.

In fact, taken another way, the future of this year's Edmonton Oiler team is more in their hands than perhaps any other season before. Of the final 27 games of the season, including tonight's against the Thrashers, the Oilers play, 10 of them are against Northwest opponents, 13 against Western Conference teams currently ahead of them in the standings.

Of course, actually winning those games will depend on a couple key factors:

1. Will Jarret Stoll return from his headache break? Oil fans are holding their breath waiting for this mid season Oiler MVP to get back into the lineup after taking a stick to the helmet. If you're thinking about Tim Connolly it may be a bit premature, but not out of the question.

2. Will Smytty sign and carry this team into the playoffs? He's done about everything humanly possible to keep this team in the black and the Oilers have no hope without him.

3. Will the Oilers make a trade for a depth defenceman, or will Tjarnqvist return? The Oilers cannot afford any more callups on defence. They're shaky enough as it is with their current lineup.

4. Can Sean Horcoff continue his recent strong play? Since being reunited with Smyth and Hemsky the never say die centre has been able to return to doing the simple things right. His defensive zone coverage has totally turned around and he's been buzzing around the opposition net a lot more.

5. Lupul-Pouliot-Sykora - Will these three step up, or step out?

6. Buyers or sellers? I'm not of the opinion the Oilers are either. I think they have a good group in general and keeping the core together for next year is of the utmost importance. Its not worth it for them to give up a solid player like Raffi Torres for a rental guy that most likely won't be able to impact this team enough to create any short term success. On the other hand, I don't think its necessary to unload guys like Jason Smith for prospects as I believe he still fits in with the gameplan for next season.

7. The defence is still undermanned. That's not a question.

I think in general, these are the questions Oilers fans will see answered over the course of the next two-three weeks, and the answers will determine whether or not the Oilers can put together enough solid games to beat the teams they need to in order to reach the playoffs. That was a very convoluted sentence, but you get the idea.

At its very core, this season will come down to simple math: 5/5 = playoffs.

Desperation sets in...

Well right now the news is coming out that the Oilers have claimed Petr Nedved off waivers from the Flyers and I can only call the move a desperate one made by a desperate man. Having said that, there are multiple reasons it isn't a terrible move.

Because Nedved was pulled off the waiver wire, the Flyers get the unenviable task of paying for half of whats left on Nedved's contract this year, so the Oilers get the enigmatic centre for a potential bargain.

As Petr's model wife sheds a single tear at having been sent back to Edmonton, I like the idea of picking up Nedved for no other reason than screwing one of the "Former Oiler Bitter Wives Club." Its hard to say how Nedved himself will react - on one hand, he's got an unhappy wifey to go home to, but in another, hes out of the sunken ship that is the Flyers (and into the sinking ship that is the Oilers). But ever since he left the Oilers his fortunes have plumeted, and I would think there is some part of him that still has a desire to succeed in the NHL, to be a premier player again. Whether that will happen or not is debatable.

Nedved has been on and off the waiver wire all this year, and is a combined -20 for the 21 games he's played with the Flyers. He's also only got 1 goal, 6 assists. So how does he fit into this Oiler team?

To make room, Thoresen was sent down to the minors, which I think is the right move. If you ask me, the Oilers need to get back to playing rock em sock em hockey and Thoresen just isn't that type of guy. Sure, neither is Nedved, but at worst its a lateral move. I think in recent weeks its becoming increasingly obvious that for whatever reason Sean Horcoff simply cannot do the job of a number 1 centre, at least this year. I haven't given up on Horc, but sometimes guys just have bad years, and I don't think you could label this anything other than a bad year for Horcoff. Jarett Stoll though, the man who many believed could only be a PP specialist and who faded in the second half last year, has become the Oiler's best centreman, and at times arguably their best player.

I think the smartest thing right now is to shelter Horcoff a bit, put him with the guys he's had success with (Hemsky, Smyth, as MacTavish did last game), put Nedved with his countryman (Sykora) and let Stolly keep doing what he's doing. In my opinion Pisani is doing the things he needs to do to be successful, Torres is inconsistant as usual, but its been the Oilers best line on average.

As for the Oilers continuing defensive coverage, I am going to suggest something bold that most other blogs have completely ignored. In my opinion, and judging from Lowe's comments the other night, there aren't a lot of good defenseman available, period. The Oilers are basically stuck with a defensive group that isn't capable of the workload being thrust upon them.

The answer lies in the way the Oilers played Detroit last year in the playoffs. Change your style of play; go to the trap. The Oilers have plenty of good, speedy forwards, many of whom are very skilled. These are the basic success elements of the trap.

While Roloson hasn't looked like anything remotely resembling good lately, he is not getting much help. Roloson needs to be put into an environment right now that he's comfortable with, he needs support from the rest of the players. I can't count how many goals have been let in off of poor defensive zone coverage over the last two weeks. While in zone coverage used to be the Oilers strength, as witnessed by their former penalty killing success rate, this is now the Oiler's biggest weakness.

I think the team as a whole needs to stop looking for someone to parachute in and save them, and to realize the ingredients for success are in the locker room. I believe in the calibre of players on this team much like I do with the calibre of player on the Flames. Right now the Oilers are a group that are less than the sum of their parts.

Up tommorow: Canada plays The United States in the World Jr. Championship Semifinal. TSN - 6:30amPT/9:30amET

Oil's Well?

In late November the Oilers were on shakey ground to say the least. After decimating the pitiful Hawks they blew a late 3rd period lead to the hated Ducks and then got routed by Colorado the next night. Two nights later they lost their third straight, and during that three game losing streak they lost the sublime Hemsky and heart and soul Ryan Smyth, one of the few Oilers giving a consistent effort game in game out. Any reasonable person would have said it was time to push the panic button. I was pretty worried myself, it looked like the Oilers had only one direction to go.

Enter ex Team Canada captain Jarret Stoll. After being labled by many as the man to go in Edmonton's cap crunch, Stoll had been looking largely ineffective for large stretches this year. Enter Raffi Torres, the bulldog who couldn't seem to find a reason to rip out someone's throat. Enter Pisani, the man with overburdened with unachievable expectations. Enter the group that I said would be the best 3rd line in hockey should they stick together.

Over the next 6 games, without Hemsky and without Smyth, the Oilers have 4 wins and 2 losses, including a game in which they put over 40 shots on Chris Mason, which could hardly be called a weak effort. Sure they were caught sleeping in Chicago, but there were 3 posts by the Oilers in that game, including two by Stoll in one shift in the second period.

During this effort, Stoll had 2g and 6a, Pisani had 2g 2a, Torres 1g, 5a. But its not just the points this line is putting up - its their sheer dominance. Stoll has played like a man possessed, and is undeniably the team's current inspirational leader. Torres has started to lay guys out again (several Wild bailed tonight in puck races with Torres) and Pisani has started to bury his chances.

Whats the difference? Your guess is as good as mine. I thought it was ice time difference but that theory doesn't really pan out when you examine the numbers, especially when you compare it to the same players output during the playoffs (of course those number are slightly skewed because Pisani exploded so far out of his usual statistical distribution output). Stoll's ice time has increased from about 17 minutes a night to about 21 minutes a night over the last 3-4 games, but that seems to be more a result of his strong play, rather than his strong play being a result of his ice time.

Whatever the reason, I think Oilers fans can't help but smile, both at the team's recent suprise success, and the lack of faith they had in the team's ability to win without Smyth and Hemsky. I admit, I was one of the doubters, but I can't help but watch Stoll and be impressed.

Ok, so maybe I was off when I predicted they would be the best 3rd line in hockey. The way they're playing now I probably would have been more accurate saying they would be the best line in hockey. (A little hyperbolis humour there).

therealdeal of the night: Jarret Stoll - He was physically dominant, won a key faceoff that led to the first goal, and simply made good plays on every shift. 1g, 1a performance.