Dion Phaneuf

07-08 Prediction:

Had an up and down season in 06-07. Opposition began to compensate for Phaneuf’s presence on the blueline, but he still managed 17 goals, 4 game winners. Destroyed Denis Hamel early on in the year with a thundering check, but was quieter than his rookie year. Did not mesh well with Robyn Regehr. Ice time increased. Asked to play a pure shutdown/containment role for Canada in the World Championships, Phaneuf was nothing less than spectacular.

07-08 Evaluation:
Phaneuf's counting numbers continued their increasingly impressive rise to 17 goals and and 60 points. I don't think he had any single highlight reel hits this year but that's ok, I'm more concerned with his actual defensive presence.

I don't think there was any better illustration of Phaneuf's shortcomings than in the playoffs against San Jose. While there was no doubt he was contributing offensively (3G, 7PTS), it was nothing less than heart attack hockey seeing him go against Joe Thornton. It's unfair to accuse Phaneuf of not being strong enough, but quite frankly, he just couldn't handle Thornton, especially down low. There's no shame in that obviously, Thornton is one of the league's elite. It just appears that Phaneuf isn't, at least when it comes to defensive zone coverage. Not yet anyway.Looking at behindthenet.ca numbers I think we can get a bit of a year long illustration of what I'm saying. His offensive numbers are all stellar, (1st in GFON for defencemen, 1st in pts/60 for defencemen, etc). He's obviously a workhorse (1st overall in EVTOI/60) but I have to think that at least some of his totals are because of the fact he gets top notch teammates.

The disappointing part of the behindthenet.ca numbers come in the fact we can see he's facing 2nd tier opposition and not really stopping them from scoring goals. He's not even in the first half of defenceman in terms of opposition shutdown ability.

Right now Phaneuf is a very good defenceman, but if he ever hopes to win that Norris he was nominated for he needs to tighten up his defensive zone coverage.

Projection: number 1 defenceman
Key Stat: 1st for defenceman in GFON and PTS/60

Sheldon Souray

07-08 Prediction:

Appropriately labeled a 'chaos defender' by Lowetide. Is often as likely to cause a goal against as a goal for. Has given up a couple of unsightly highlight reel one on one situations, although cut down on that 'issue' in the most recent season. Has an absolute boomer from the point and a real mean streak. Is a physical presence. Appears to be well respected by players. Is absolutely not as good a player as Ryan Smyth despite his pay scale.

07-08 Evaluation:
I must admit, looking back, I've been a bit hard on Souray. I think everything I wrote about him in my 07-08 prediction holds pretty true, but when he first went down with shoulder trouble last season I made the comment that the Oilers were probably better off without him playing. His counting totals weren't very impressive and he seemed to be on for a lot of goals against. From that point on Souray really only made cameo appearances for the Oilers, but he was surprisingly effective. Bare in mind this is an extremely small sample size.

Sure, his GFON was brutal (worst for defenceman, 2nd worst on the team), but look at his competition and his teammates; MacT was giving Souray pretty tough assignments and making him babysit his linemates - surprisingly he pretty much came out on top. MacT wasn't totally throwing him under the bus like Stoll or Reasoner (or Staios) judging from IOF's handy little graph, but he was obviously being challenged.

Souray's most promising statistic? His GAON - 3rd on the team and first for defenceman. Isn't that supposed to be his weakness?

Obviously last year could have been an anomaly both in terms of play and in sample size, so this year will be a real test for Souray.

Still, I'd rather have Smyth.

Projection: 1st pairing defenceman
Key Stat: 3rd overall GAON, 1st for defenceman

Lubomir Visnovsky

I think even more so than Sheldon Souray we can think of Lubomir Visnovsky as that 'puck moving defenceman' that the Oilers coveted . Partly because Souray really isn't a puck mover at all even though he was sold to the public as one, but that's neither here nor there.

The truth is that Lubomir Visnovsky did not have a stellar season last year, even by LA Kings standards. The good news is that his last season is an outlier, not the trend.

05-06: 17G, 67PTS, 0.838PPG
06-07: 18G, 58PTS, 0.841PPG
07-08: 8G, 41PTS, 0.500PPG

As Jonathan Willis would say, 'one of these things is not like the other.'

I think it's unlikely to expect nearly a point a game pace from Visnovsky, but he'll get plenty of PP time with Sheldon Souray and I would expect his pace will increase from half a point a game.

Looking at his desjardins numbers from last year with the LA Kings it should become obvious why Lubomir Visnovsky should be played on the second defensive unit against the soft opposition.

His GFON was ok but his GAON was just awful, even for LA. Let's hope that was an anomaly as well.

The basic lowdown is that I think Visnovsky is going to have to be babysat a bit at EV or given really good teammates, because his value is going to have to come on the PP.

Projection: 2nd pairing defenceman
Key Stat: 13th overall in difficulty of opposition

Robyn Regehr

07-08 Prediction:
Calgary’s best defenceman, he uses his size and positioning to punish opposition forwards. Calgary was simply a worse team when Regehr didn’t play. Offensive upside is limited, but managed to crank out 4 points in 7 games against Anaheim in the playoffs of 05-06. Is committed to the Flames and to winning, signing a below market value extension in the summer of 07.

07-08 Evaluation:
The picture above is of Robyn slamming Selanne right behind the defensive zone net, which is appropriate because that's his signature move and because he apparently has a distaste for Selanne that runs far deeper than any other NHLer.

Robyn Regehr's season can't really be described by any word other than workhorse. He played 82 games facing the toughest opposition of any defenceman and the second toughest opposition overall playing with just about the worst teammates of all defenceman.

He kept up his clutch playoff reputation by putting up 2 assists in 7 games and shadowing Joe Thornton into oblivion.


Last year Regehr played with Cory Sarich but I expect this year he'll get Phaneuf as his partner, and so his counting numbers will likely increase. If Keenan continues his power vs power strategy, I would also expect Regehr's defensive numbers (GAON) to improve as well. Having real teammates can only help him.

The only real question about Regehr is who is going to replace him on the second pairing?

Projection: 1st pairing defenceman
Key Stat: 2nd overall and 1st defenceman in opposition difficulty

Cory Sarich

I'm sure this picture is a little painful for most Flames fans but I think it's important to remember that at one point Cory Sarich won the Cup and it may not hold as much weight as the MSM may indicate but it does have value.

Most Flames fans that I have talked to seem to agree Sarich is overpaid ($3.6 cap hit) but the higher the cap rises the more appropriate his salary seems to get. He's not a bad defensive defenceman, doesn't do anything great but nothing terrible either. Generally makes safe plays and obviously had that one incredible hit on Patrick Marleau in the 08 playoffs.

Looking at his desjardins numbers there is a lot of red, but thankfully it's exactly where we would expect it to be; at his offensive numbers. Make no mistake, Cory Sarich was not brought on board to score goals, he was brought on board to stop them.

As was obvious to anyone who watched the Flames last season, Sarich played with Regehr on what basically amounted to a defensive shutdown unit. Sarich played the second toughest opposition minutes for defenseman (behind Regehr, so basically equal toughness) and did not a bad job; his GAON were 3rd among defenceman, behind Vandermeer and Aucoin who both played against much lesser opposition.

I have a feeling this year that Regehr will be paired with Phaneuf and therefore Sarich has to expect a new defensive partner at EV. Without Regehr at his side I imagine his play will remain steady but now Flames fans will be able to get a better picture of how much of a difference maker he really is.

Projection: 2nd pairing defenceman
Key Stat: 2nd quality of opposition among defenceman

Sakic Returns

TSN and the Colorado Avalanche have announced the return of Joe Sakic to a 1 year deal. Great news for hockey fans, not so great news for Flames and Oilers fans.

Who has doubts he could score a 100 points this year? I don't.

Tom Gilbert

Pictured in the above picture are Tom Gilbert (wearing the 77) and skating coach Steve Serdachney (holding the timing device). Tom Gilbert was a bit of a surprise to make the team out of training camp in 07 but he became a bit of a revelation throughout the 07-08 season. He played smart defensive hockey, he's mobile, he's not physical per se, but he is strong enough to handle opposition players.

I think we can expect his counting numbers to drop off a bit as it's unlikely he'll receive the same amount of PP time this year thanks to the acquisition of Visnovsky and a (hopefully) healthy Sheldon Souray.

Looking at Gilbert's behindthenet.ca numbers I think what really pops out are his PTS/60 and GFON which are both ranked pretty highly on the team. While his GAON wasn't particularly impressive even on the context of this team, certainly his GFON was.

This is a little bit disturbing; as LT points out, Gilbert's PTS/60 was near the top the of the division and I don't think we can expect him to continue at that level (although of course we can hope). That being said I think another year of playing and understanding what to expect at this level of hockey can only help him and hopefully his defensive numbers will improve a bit.

Projection: 1st pairing even strength defenceman
Key Stat: 2nd EVTOI/60 for defenceman and 2nd GFON/60