5/5 = Playoffs

While the odds of the Edmonton Oilers actually making the playoffs is dwindling faster than Sean Avery's chances of winning the Lady Byng, the faithful still believe there is a Lloyd Christmas dating Mary Swanson chance of making it. And while Scarlett at Only Oil has come up with a number I agree with, I would like clarify it even further.

The Oilers play the currently in 8th place, the Minnesota Wild, a total of FIVE times over the last 30 odd games of the season. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that if the Oilers can take all 5 games in regulation, they will squeak into the playoffs for a second straight year.

In fact, taken another way, the future of this year's Edmonton Oiler team is more in their hands than perhaps any other season before. Of the final 27 games of the season, including tonight's against the Thrashers, the Oilers play, 10 of them are against Northwest opponents, 13 against Western Conference teams currently ahead of them in the standings.

Of course, actually winning those games will depend on a couple key factors:

1. Will Jarret Stoll return from his headache break? Oil fans are holding their breath waiting for this mid season Oiler MVP to get back into the lineup after taking a stick to the helmet. If you're thinking about Tim Connolly it may be a bit premature, but not out of the question.

2. Will Smytty sign and carry this team into the playoffs? He's done about everything humanly possible to keep this team in the black and the Oilers have no hope without him.

3. Will the Oilers make a trade for a depth defenceman, or will Tjarnqvist return? The Oilers cannot afford any more callups on defence. They're shaky enough as it is with their current lineup.

4. Can Sean Horcoff continue his recent strong play? Since being reunited with Smyth and Hemsky the never say die centre has been able to return to doing the simple things right. His defensive zone coverage has totally turned around and he's been buzzing around the opposition net a lot more.

5. Lupul-Pouliot-Sykora - Will these three step up, or step out?

6. Buyers or sellers? I'm not of the opinion the Oilers are either. I think they have a good group in general and keeping the core together for next year is of the utmost importance. Its not worth it for them to give up a solid player like Raffi Torres for a rental guy that most likely won't be able to impact this team enough to create any short term success. On the other hand, I don't think its necessary to unload guys like Jason Smith for prospects as I believe he still fits in with the gameplan for next season.

7. The defence is still undermanned. That's not a question.

I think in general, these are the questions Oilers fans will see answered over the course of the next two-three weeks, and the answers will determine whether or not the Oilers can put together enough solid games to beat the teams they need to in order to reach the playoffs. That was a very convoluted sentence, but you get the idea.

At its very core, this season will come down to simple math: 5/5 = playoffs.

Hired and Fired

While watching the Buf/Cal game last night, one thought kept popping intrusively into my mind: David Moss is playing far too well to send him back to the minors if/when Chuck Kobasew is able to return. Chuck Kobasew has officially lost his job.

Clearly Darryl Sutter's thoughts had mirrored mine, but he was ahead of me by several steps, as apparently, the trade that sent Kobasew (and disappointingly Andrew Ference) to the Bruins has been in the works for several weeks. To me, Andrew Ference provided the steady depth defenceman that made the deal possible from the Bruins perspective, but David Moss stepping in and providing consistent 2nd line grit and touch made Chuck Kobasew a very overrated, expensive and redundant piece of the puzzle.

In return Calgary gets two players that Darryl Sutter is very familiar with: Brad Stuart and Wayne Primeau, both of whom he coached in San Jose. I like that Sutter is familiar with both players and clearly Sutter feels he knows what type of play he can expect from his most recent acquisitions. They took him to the Western Conference finals in 2004, and although Stuart has never turned into the franchise defenceman everyone expected, Darryl obvious believes he can play a complimentary role in Calgary. Wayne Primeau is a depth forward who brings a physical edge, something the Flames do lack a bit. While guys like Ritchie, Yelle, Lombardi/Conroy, and Nilson are all smart hockey players, its extremely rare you see a big time hit from them. I think the precedent was set last year when Sutter traded Reinprecht for Leclerc for his physical presence late in the season.

Regular readers will know that I have absolutely no sadness to see Chuck Kobasew off this team. He represented the last of the dissapointing 90s draft lot that saw the Flames go with underperformers like Daniel Tkachuk, Rico Fata, Oleg Saprykin and finally, Chuck Kobasew. Andew Ference however, is a different story.

I have a very high regard for Andrew Ference, and if you consider it a one for one deal (Kobasew->Primeau, Ference->Stuart), I don't think we got value in return. Although I hate Michael Farber, I agree with his assesment today: I would not trade Andew Ference for Brad Stuart straight up, especially considering Ference is underpaid and Stuart isn't even signed. Its disappointing to lose a guy who I considered to be a leader of the team, and who seemed to be a true stand up guy on and off the ice. Emotionally, HG sums it up here and here. Really difficult to hear how Ference was pulled off the bus.

I'm a bit confused as to where Stuart fits in on our depth chart. Hamrlik and Phaneuf will be staying together, so will Warrener and Regehr be broken up, or will Stuart be slotted in with Giordano for the 3rd pairing? To me, Stuart is probably a top 4 guy, but I'm not sure he's strong enough defensively to make a good shutdown defensive pairing with Regehr. So either he's not going to be getting enough ice time but will be paired with someone who fits his style, or he's paired with someone who is stylistically different but will be getting appropriate ice time.

Of course there now even more of a crush of centres on this team (Langkow, Conroy, Lombardi, Yelle, (Nilson), and Primeau so its possible that this deal could lead to another couple of minor deals.

You have to give credit to Sutter though, he obviously recognizes this is one of two years we have to go for the Cup. He's identified areas where the team needs improvement, and has acted on it. His timing is right for the push, the only question now is; will it be enough?

Ferraro on M.A. Bergeron

Maybe he's not ready to assume all the responsibility that the Oilers want when they lost Pronger, and they lost Spacek, they're asking an inexperienced Marc Andre Bergeron to run the power play, to help anchor a young defensive pair, maybe its a little much right now for Bergeron...

Um...you think?

Words are very/unnecessary/they can only do harm

Players wear Mike Vernon's name and number during warmup

The man of the hour steps up to the podium

A touching moment as Vernon recalls the help of his late mother in his career

#30's banner rises behind him and his family

Mike Vernon waves goodbye to the fans. Thanks for the memories Verny.

My only complaint about the whole night (besides the performance put on by both teams), is that the banner is in the team's current colours and design rather than the team Vernon actually played on. Its tacky and weird.

For those interested in training for hockey:

Very cool Oilers PPV feature on training. As you can see its mostl explosive power training (generating power in a short amount of time) along with mobility work and in my opinion, not very much 'core' exercises that are the latest fad. And, just in case you were living under a rock, you'll now know that Ethan Moreau's brother, Chad Moreau, is the Oiler's 'strength and conditioning coach.'

Re-united and it feels so good! (Part II)

Ironically, I actually couldn't find a picture of the three of them together, but we can pretend that's Horcoff in the background

Although I wrote my last piece on the re-uniting of Iginla and Conroy in Calgary, another distinctive group on the other side of the province was re-united last Saturday and has had considerable success. Horcoff has had an up and down year (mostly down) and Smyth has had a personal up year (even if team success has eluded this Oiler group), but together they simply haven't been able to click they way they did in all last year (regular season and playoffs). Their missing piece, Ales Hemsky, had been relegated to playing with Petr 'One Timer' Sykora, thanks to some early season chemistry between the two. However, the production between Hemsky and Sykora had dwindled down to almost nothing since Hemsky got hurt late in the '06 calendar year, and this team was running out of options.

The trio was briefly re-united in the New Year's eve game against Calgary, but MacT re-shuffled the deck soon after and Hemsky was sadled with not just one under performing Czech, but two, as Hemsky, Nedved and Sykora joined together as the laughably ineffective 'Czech line' or more aptly, the 'No Check' line.

Last Saturday though, in a game vs. the L.A. Kings, Hemsky, Horcoff and Smyth were re-united for an entire game, and boy, did they make a case to stay together. Scoring all 4 goals (Smyth 2, Hemsky 1, Horcoff 1) and accounting for 11 of 12 points in the game, the line dominated the whole game, and was the undeniable difference between winning and losing.

Hemsky found Smyth again on Wednesday's game vs. Columbus, and Hemsky and Smyth came together to find Sykora for the winner.

Against Columbus, the line shot blanks. But if MacT had any doubts about keeping them together for the rest of the season, tonight's Avalanche game should have erased them. Read the scoresheet.
G1. Hemsky (+2 1a)
G2. Smyth (+1, 1a)
G3. Horcoff (+1, 1a, 1GWG)

The trio was on for every goal for, except for the first goal in which Horcoff was off. Undeniably, the group was responsible for the 2pts in the win column.

Now if Stoll can shake off the cobwebs the Oilers have a chance at two consistently effective lines, (and for a further stretch, Lupul looks like someone lit a fire under his ass, its possible he, Sykora and Nedved can turn into hockey players...and if not, at least their suck won't rub off on anyone else).

Re-united and it feels so good!

Despite early predictions Conroy would play a 3rd line support role in Calgary, it appears his performance last game will vault him back into the coveted Iginla centreman role. TSN's Ice Chips and the Calgary Herald have reported the first lines in practice was:

Tanguay-Conroy-Iginla
Huselius-Langkow-Moss
Amonte - Lombardi - Nilson
Friesen - Yelle - Ritchie

As most coaches like to pair offensive players, Iginla/Conroy and Huselius/Langkow are not huge suprises, but I would say the inclusion of Moss is interesting if not totally suprising. Through various posts on here and through my comments on various other Flames blogs I have made my feelings about Moss be known - that is, he's shown to be a very impressive fill in for Chuck Kobasew. In fact, I would say he's been more effective than Kobasew, as he is finding ways to put the puck in the net on a consistent basis. Moss isn't a fancy player, but he's always willing to throw the puck on net, and he himself isn't at all afraid to plant himself in front and cause havoc.

This could be looked at as a positive or a negative for Matthew Lombardi. As has been noted by MG, Lombardi has simply not been as consistent lately. This third line 'demotion' though, is both a symptom of Lombardi's play, and also of Conroy's 'resurgence.' Having his ice time reduced is going to be disappointing for the young centre, however I think this is a good opportunity for Lombardi to simplify his game and get back to doing the simple things right, and at the top of that list: distributing the puck. In my opinion Lombardi has been relying TOO heavily on his speed and puck carrying ability, and he's had his head down when it should be up. It will be interesting to see if Lombardi's PK time increases (with his reduced even strength time) and Conroy's PK time decreases (with increased even strength time).

For other Flames news:
MG - talks about the growth of the Flames blogosphere and his usual awesome pre-game
HG - talks about her betrayal of Double Dion with Slick Rick and the Flames Sideburn Contest

Welcome to a couple new blogs (as mentioned by MG), Sean at Sea of Red - Flames/Columbus pre gameSteal Thunder at Completely Hammered - Flames/Columbus pre game

Time to update the sidewall I guess...