It's Just Bad Timing That's All

I never really did much of an analysis of Mike Keenan when he was hired, I think that his history is pretty well publicized and probably speaks for itself. This season will probably be a absolute disaster or a total success; the odds of it falling between those two extremes is, in my opinion, relatively low. I wasn't particularly pleased with Keenan's hiring, and my attitude has changed very little since then. Really, my grudging acceptance of Keenan was based on two factors: Playfair is gone, and there were very few options available in replacing Playfair. It disappointed me that the Flames missed the Andy Murray boat, but that was the past.

There was one other man who I've hoped would be the Flames head coach, but it appeared there were too many obstacles. Brent Sutter was head coach for two very successful Team Canada U-20 incarnations, and even one successful World Junior year usually translates to a head coaching job. Two was unprecedented.

Brent's position with the Red Deer Rebels appeared to be the main obstacle for his inclusion into the NHL head coach rankings. He plays multiple roles for the franchise, including owner, general manager, and head coach. His named had popped up multiple times in the shortlist for NYI coaches (with Ted Nolan eventually taking the reigns). I always felt though that if Sutter did jump to the NHL it would be to a position with his brother Darryl's team.

He would be able to stay close to his ranch, he would be once again coaching Dion Phanuef, he and his brother could act as a true partnered braintrust for the organization. Nowhere would Brent have more control over player movement or be as close to management.

However, it now appears, according to Darren Dreger and Bob Mckenzie, that Brent will leave his GM and coach position with the rebels to join Lou Lamoriello in New Jersey (the man who very unfairly fired Claude Julien near the end of the season, it really pains me that a great coach would still want to work with him).

Of all the lousy luck.

Firstly, if Brent was willing to take a position within the NHL, why NOT the Flames? Was the organization unwilling to meet some sort of demands he had? Did Darryl not know? Was he promised more control in NJ? All of these propositions seem equally unlikely.

The only real explanation I can speculate on is that Darryl knew Brent could be had for the right price, but sincerely felt Keenan was the better coaching option.

If there is one comment you can make about Darryl, it could never be that he tends to play it safe.

Covering Your Ass - By Kevin Lowe

I just received this in my email box:

Oilers Statement regarding Michael Nylander

The Edmonton Oilers Hockey Club is compelled to clarify the unfortunate and unprecedented circumstances surrounding the Edmonton Oilers and Michael Nylander.

On Sunday, July 1, 2007, Kevin Lowe, Oilers General Manager, and Mr. Mike Gillis, Certified Agent for Michael Nylander, negotiated and agreed to a multi-year NHL Standard Players Contract, starting in 2007/08. Mr. Gillis confirmed same to the Oilers in writing.

The Oilers then proceeded with preparations to announce Mr. Nylander’s contract agreement on July 2, and concurrently continued with the process of negotiating with other free agents based upon Mr. Nylander being an important roster ingredient for the future.

However, while the Oilers were expecting the returned, signed agreements from Mr. Nylander and Mr. Gillis, the Oilers discovered through public announcements made mid-afternoon on July 2, that Mr. Nylander had subsequently entered into a long-term contract with the Capitals.

The Oilers can find no precedent for such conduct in our history. The Oilers are examining and pursuing every course of action available in the best interest of the team and our fans.

For legal reasons, the Edmonton Oilers Hockey Club will not be discussing the details any further at this time.

Wow. Only the Oilers, only the Oilers.

If Kevin Lowe was smart he'd realize that he'd have looked like a bigger fool giving Smyth's money to Nylander. Who the hell is running the asylum anyway?

Two Sides of Darryl

With yesterdays signing of free agent Owen Nolan, I couldn't help but think there are two sides to Darryl Sutter.

On the one hand, it's almost as if Darryl has some hypnotic power with his voice. I can only imagine him whispering in Iginla's ear, '$7 million dollars for 5 years is a good move for you.' He's managed to convince several guys to repeatedly take well under what they could've got on the free market. Iginla, Regehr, Kipprusoff. If this rumoured Regehr deal turns out to be true, Regehr will be making less money than Roman Hamrlik. Unbelievable.

On the other hand, Darryl has this penchant for going out and getting old end of the career type guys. Amonte. McCarty. Nolan.

If we could just somehow contain the latter Sutter the Flames would be unstoppable.

In regards to Owen Nolan, he might be a step up from Amonte. He might not be though. We'll see how his arthritis goes.

Blueprints

If there ever was a blueprint for dismantling a great team in a short time without any real (or at least obvious) rebuilding plans, Kevin Lowe has wrote it.

Trading your all star/franchise defenceman for very little return is the first step. Upon hearing of the necessity of moving Pronger (which I grant was a necessity) I felt that a negative could be turned into a positive. The (at the time) gargantuan Pronger contract could be liberated and in return the Oilers could get a couple top end prospects and a high end young player (who was cheap), and finally, could leverage that extra room into a long term contract for the heart and soul of the franchise, Ryan Smyth.

While the Pronger loss would sting, the Oilers would retain their core group: Smyth, Horcoff, Stoll, Hemsky, Pisani, Smith, Staios, Roloson (and to a lesser extent, Torres). Without blowing anyone away, it would be a consistent hard working group not yet hitting their prime. Add in a couple young prospects in the return and you've got a pretty decent group.

The Oilers managed to not get a useable young hockey player in the Pronger return. While I see a lot of potential in Smid, he was not the 'useable young hockey player' in the deal, he was the high end prospect. Lupul was supposed to be the useable guy; in his one season with the Oilers he had the 2nd worst plus minus in the league. Honestly, the less said about Lupul the better.

Step number two in this blueprint is to totally blow the negotiations with the key piece of your core. Not a soul in the world would argue Ryan Smyth was the engine that drove this team for years (although some have argued there are nicer engines out there). Kevin Lowe managed to overpay a bunch of cogs in the machine and avoid the engine in the year before the engine hit free agency. 'We'll negotiate in the summer' Lowe told Smyth, predicting Smyth would not continue to build on his consistently strong career. After Lowe signed Staios early into the season, Ryan Smyth declared he would not take a home town discount this time (a lie.) Lowe began to panic at Smyth's increasingly impressive goal total (one night he racked up 3 in a shorter time span than any Oiler in history, gaining his rightful place among Oiler greats) and implied they should negotiate in-season. The Smyth camp accommodated this suggestion but the two sides weren't moving a lot from their initial positions. Having already abandoned his plan of resigning Smyth in the off season, Kevin Lowe decided to go a step further and insist that if Ryan wasn't signed before the off season, he would have to be traded. Although practically a smart plan, it wasn't necessarily a necessity. The Oilers would undoubtedly have the high ground in an FA chance, and besides, they still had until July 1 before he hit free agency. Both sides were motivated to keep Ryan in Edmonton.

Kevin Lowe made the call and traded Smyth for some mid level prospects.

Now I don't believe in all the talk about Edmonton not being a desired location to play, but sending the heart and soul (and one of the most popular players in the league) of your team off with a bad taste in his mouth probably didn't ease over any image problems Edmonton has with NHLers.

Anyway, the final step involves the lack of ability to improve the team in any meaningful way. I'll be the first to admit that trading Smith (nooooooooooooo!) and Lupul (good riddance) for Pitkanen and Sanderson is probably a good move simply because Pitkanen is the best player in the deal; however, does it feel to anyone like a token move, meant only as a way to make it look like Lowe is doing something...anything.

If you look at balance sheet, Edmonton traded Chris Pronger, Ryan Smyth, Jason Smith for Smid, Pitkanen, Sanderson, Nilsson, O'Marra, Nash, Plante and a couple 2008 picks.

Have I got that right?

There has better be one hell of a rabbit coming out of that 2008 draft hat, or this is one of the worst series of deals in hockey history.

Not to mention all the talk after the Smyth trade about 'needing a better top guy than Ryan Smyth.' That talk is all well and good, but let's examine the reality. The Oilers had the ability yesterday to pick from a variety of top level guys that are arguably better than Ryan Smyth. Who did they end up with?

Michael Nylander.

Now I have no particular issues with Michael Nylander, I've met him, he was a really nice guy, he can clearly put up the points. But is he a better top guy than Ryan Smyth?

If you're going into the trenches day in and day out, who would you rather have on your side?

It wouldn't surprise me either if Nylander was signed to a contract close in numbers to the contract Ryan Smyth offered up Edmonton way back in February. Maybe not in length, but in dollars/year.

Not to mention the Oilers are already stocked on centers. Perhaps this signals another future move, sending Moreau or Horcoff or Stoll out for a winger.

The engine's already gone, why bother keeping the cogs?

And that is a quick overview of how you quickly dismantle a great team without any rebuilding plan.

Madness

T-10 hours or so until the stupidity starts. There's a lot of scribes out there who are saying the smart money is spent next summer, and I tend to agree with them. That said, the Flames need to win now, and the Oilers need to at the very least keep their heads above water (or turn a potential disaster season into simply a debacle season).

I probably won't update this much on July 1st, have a couple things to do, but if there's anything truly significant...well, I won't be out of the game for long.

Update:

11:15
TSN is reporting (that THN is reporting) Jarome has signed a 4 year extension at $7 million/year which in my opinion is a total steal. Now does that mean he has 4 more years on his current contract or 4 years on top of his original final year meaning he has 5 more years with the Flames?

more as it happens

One Too Many Hall of Famers

Mark Messier, Al MacInnis, Scott Stevens and Ron Francis were all rightfully inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame today amid much fanfare. This was nothing less than a dream year for the Hall, the lockout helping so many great players make the decision to retire. However, as with every year (and this year in particular) a couple of true greats were left off the first ballot, and often times if you don't make that first ballot, you have to wait for a year where things slow down (ala the lockout year) for you chance. And that's just stupid.

The Hall is absolutely right to limit the amount of players admitted to their hockey shrine, however, limiting inductees based on an arbitrary number is just too damn...arbitrary - especially when the one true factor should be impact/skill in the game of hockey.

Take Cam Neely's late induction during the lockout. If Neely was good enough to make the Hall, shouldn't he have been good enough to make it the year he retired (or the first eligible year anyway). Why the lockout year, just because there was an opening? Inducting someone into the hall just because there's a lack of nominations is just as stupid as limiting the number of inductees arbitrarily. If a person isn't good enough to make it, don't put them in just because it's a slow year, if they are good enough to make it, don't limit them arbitrarily.

This year I think there was one player in particular who deserved a first ballot induction (and one day he may very well end up in the Hall); Claude Lemieux.

Flames (and Detroit) fans probably just cringed at that. Claude is notorious around these parts for his antics both in the '86 and '89 cup finals, and in Michigan for his playoff antics in general (1996, Kris Draper ring a bell?). My brother suggested this is why Claude won't get into the final; he's not just a good, he's a villain. In my opinion though, Claude's NHL performance is too compelling an argument to not induct him into the Hall.

In his 24 season in the NHL, Lemieux missed the post season only 3 times. He missed the post season in his first two cracks with the Montreal Canadiens when he played only 9 times in two seasons. The only other time he missed the post season was in the 2000-01 season, playing for the Phoenix Coyotes. The COYOTES. He actually made a postseason with that team in one other year. The rest of his career, Lemieux spent his springs killing himself to win games.

He scored 80 career playoff goals which (according to Wikipedia) is eighth all time in the NHL. The top 5, according to NHL.com. are Wayne Gretzky (122), Mark Messier (109), Jari Kurri (106), Brett Hull (100) and Glenn Anderson (93, and another Hall oversight).

Lemieux is 3rd all time in post season games played at 233. Patrick Roy is first with 247, and Mark Messier is 2nd with 236. Scott Stevens is tied with Lemieux.

Lemieux is 3rd all time in post season game winning goals (19). Wayne Gretzky and Brett Hull are first with 24 apiece. Behind Lemieux are Maurice Richard, Joe Sakic, Mike Bossy and Glenn Anderson.

Lemieux won the Conn Smythe trophy in 1995, playing on a team with Petr Forsberg, Joe Sakic, and Patrick Roy. He played better than all of them.

Claude Lemieux is one of only 4 players (I'm pretty sure 4, though I can name only 3) that has won the Stanley Cup with 3 different teams.

Claude Lemieux has won the Stanley Cup 4 times.

He played for Canada in the '87 Canada Cup, taking home first place in that famous 3 game series against the Soviets.

Hell, those statistics make some of the guys who got in look bad.

The Hall has made exceptions for other dirty players; Mark Messier for instance, was no saint.

Now, I know there are a lot of guys who deserve to get into the Hall, and haven't yet been inducted. Glenn Anderson, and from this year, Adam Oates (the man who was always 5th best, and that's a compliment. Poor guy always seemed to come up just short, but he was as talented as any of them, just never had the luck) and especially Igor 'the professor' Larionov.

But right now, there is no player I can think of that is more deserving to get into the Hall.

Calgary Flames Aquire Adrian Aucoin

TSN's Darren Dreger had reported earlier today that the Flames were looking to aquire Adrian Aucoin, and it appears exactly that has happened.

TSN:

Chicago defenceman Adrian Aucoin has waived his no-trade clause and is on his way to the Calgary Flames, sources tell TSN.

The Flames were in the market for a defenceman and zeroed in on Aucoin, who has a history with new head coach Mike Keenan. In 1998-99, Aucoin scored 18 of his 23 goals on the powerplay for Keenan's Vancouver Canucks. (Source)

I remember when Aucoin had that great year on the Island, and at the time I coveted him for sure. Over the next two years he suffered catastrophic injuries and only managed to play about 1 full season (over two seasons) for the Blackhawks, who signed him to a multi-year $4 million/year deal.

As the article mentions, Aucoin played under Keenan in Vancouver, so we keep with the Sutter connection theme (as in, everyone aquired by the Flames has some sort of previous connection with the GM or coaching staff).

Aucoin played about 21 minutes of ice time/game last season which ranks him 77th for defenceman, he was a -22, although that statistic is inflated due to the fact he played on Chicago. On the plus side, Aucoin had 3 GWG, tied for 8th among defenceman and was the team captain.

All in all, the Flames got an aging, injury prone, expensive defenceman, who is probably a lateral move from Hamrlik (although he has more potential if he stays healthy in my opinion).

Thoughts?

Update: TSN is now reporting the deal won't be completed until Friday due to paperwork.